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Thursday, 4 November 2021

5:30 Newcastle Racing Tips (5th November)

NEWCASTLE 5.30 

A nice looking class 4 race and a full house of 14 runners, there is 3 or 4 that have been known to lead before so it should be a true run race, I would lay Ginger Jam 10/1 if it was single figure price as this trip might be too far for it with a fast early pace and the 3yo River Tweed 4/1 can be added to the list as I am not convinced this surface will suit it after winning on good to soft conditions on grass, Lezardieux my 4th top rated and Giogiobbo 25/1 my 3rd top rated have both been known to lead so there should be a good fast early pace and being in stalls 2 and 13 the early pace should be spread out across the course and at the price the latter maybe worth a small each way punt, Fortamour in stall 9 is my 2nd top rated and should be staying on at the finish but my money will be riding on the 3yo CAPTAIN VALLO 4/1 who has one win and 2 placed efforts to its name from 3 runs on an artificial surface and this one is another that ought to be staying on strongly at the finish but i am not convinced you want a low draw at this straight course but if able to reproduce its best speed rating it ought to win with a little bit in hand. 

Bets: 

CAPTAIN VALLO 4/1 2PW 8th -2pts
GINGER JAM 6/1 3PL (TOO BIG) 

Total -2pts

NEWCASTLE 6.00 

To be honest this class 5 race is as bad as they get, I'm not sure I can find anything of value to lay in this race unless Fine Wine is a single figure price, which I somehow doubt, but when it comes to finding the winner my analysis keeps bumping into negatives, on my speed figures I've got 2 horses that are top rated on just 2021 course and distance ratings and then 2 others that have better ratings but from last year, I hope that the early pace might be set by VAN GERWEN 18/1 who is joint 3rd top rated for just this year and 2nd top on my overall figures and will hopefully be an each way bet, QAARAAT 18/1 has been in poor form lately and its best course and distance time this year is quite a bit lower than its 2020 figure which would make it my top rated by just 2lbs and this one has been known to bounce back to form without any warning and this ones stable has had 4-12 winners in the last 2 week so maybe worth a small each way punt at the price, FOR PEATS SAKE 4/1 comes out 2nd top rated on just this years ratings and being a 3yo it could still improve but isn't the best of value but I cant dismiss it as it could easily win this race, I have TANASOQ 13/2 in top spot for this years ratings and it showed a bit of a return to form when finishing 2nd last time out, I will be dutching all four of them to small stakes and each way bets if they are value to do so. 

Bets: 

DUTCH HALF A POINT EACH = 

2PW VAN GERWEN 18/1 (EW) Unp -2pts + QAARAAT 18/1 (EW) 6th -2pts + TANASOQ 13/2 (EW) 7th -2pts + FOR PEATS SAKE 4/1 4th -1pt

2PL STRONG POWER 13/2 +2pts

Total -5pts 

Total on the day -7pts

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