6:20 Southwell Racing Tips (6th December)

SOUTHWELL 6.20 Div I

An 11 runner class 6 sprint with just 2 front running types Sir Rodneyredblood is one of them but sits just outside my top 4 ratings so I doubt it can hold on for the win but never say never, Carlton and Co 5/1 is still a maiden after 8 runs but has made the frame 3 times but would need to improve on its best course and distance rating to win this race. Dark Shot my 4th top rated won the time before its last run which was a poor effort and likes to track the leaders, Show Me A Sunset who usually races in midfield before staying on at the finish is my 3rd top rated with Sir Gregory sitting in 2nd top spot, RATTLING 5/2 has never run at this course but has won 3 times on this surface at Wolverhampton and its the other possible pacesetter and from stall 2 it should be able to gain control of the rails and once hitting the front it ought to prove too hard to catch. 

Rattling 6/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 6.50 Div II

This division by far looks the better race on paper but with only Pepsi Cat having been known to lead it might not be the fastest of races, Brazen Idol 3/1 has been in good form lately but its win at Wolverhampton was a slow time and it might be a better prospect on the Polytrack surface so might be worth risking a lay on it, especially if it is to the fore in the betting. Kath's Toyboy likes to track the leaders and is my 3rd top rated, Starsong is my 2nd top rated on times from either Wolverhampton or Newcastle and also on just course and distance ratings and that also applies to my top rated horse as it comes out in top spot on both sets of figures,CAPTAIN VALLO 4/1 who won nicely when I backed it last time out and has been found the ideal opportunity to follow up here. 

Captain Vallo 4/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bet brazen Idol +1pt 

Total 0pts

SOUTHWELL 7.20 

What should be a nice class 3 dash only spoilt by having half of the 10 runner field being 3yo’s who could still improve with experience, there are 3 known front running types in the race which always helps with analysing the race. Of the 3 front running types, Papa Dont Preach, Mustaffiz and Khabib the latter could be the one to do best of them as its my 4th top rated, if Dusky Prince 10/1 is a single figure price near the off its one that I would look to lay as it might be outclassed at this level, I think that Silky Wilkie 4/1 is a better horse over a longer distance and is only 3rd top rated on course and distance times and has only a slow time recorded on this Tapeta surface at Newcastle so might be worth the risk to lay it if the early tissue prices are to be believed. Stone Of Destiny is my 3rd top rated with So Smart sitting in 2nd top spot although this ones figures were recorded in lower class races and hasnt won from 5 previous runs on an artificial surface. My money will be riding on ALLIGATOR ALLEY 11/4 who has had 5 runs on an artificial surface (AW) and has been placed in 3 of them and this looks an ideal opportunity for it to register its 1st AW win, since the new surface was laid here the trainer has had a 19% win ration and the jockey an 18% win ratio and has been running in higher class races lately so this drop in class might be the catalyst to it getting rid of its AW maiden tag.

Alligator Alley 11/4 1st +2.75pts

Total +2.75pts 

Total on the day +1.75pts

2:55 Southwell Racing Tips (1st November)

SOUTHWELL 2.55 

A full house of 14 runners where I think the early pace could be set by Mokaman who happens to be my 2nd top rated so should do enough to at least make the frame, its not been in good form lately so not one I could rely on but might be worth an each way punt, I think Primo will be better when racing over further and might be of value to lay in this race, Rose Bandit who usually races in midfield in the early stages of a race is my 3rd top rated so could run on into the frame, my top rated using both course and distance ratings and the other 2 Tapeta courses is TOPLIGHT 5/1 who usually races in midfield or is held up at the back for a late run and the jockey has a reasonable 15% win ratio for the stable on their older horses. 

Toplight 8/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bet Primo -4pts

Total -5pts

SOUTHWELL 5.00 Div I

A ten runner race where the biggest problem is the lack of known front running types so any stakes are automatically lowered, this race might not be run to suit Jackmeister Rudi who might need further to shine, Bayraat is making its handicap debut but will need to improve upon what its shown in its 3 races to date to win this lowly race but never say never, Wee Fat Mac, Griggy, Hilarys Boy and Variety Island are my 5th to 2nd top rated, in order, they are all very closely matched on their speed figures with only 5lbs between them but if CAPTAIN VALLO 8/1 can reproduce its best rating from 2021 at Newcastle it would be winning this race a shade cosily so has to be the one I will be backing. 

Captain Vallo 8/1 1st +8pts

Total +8pts

SOUTHWELL 5.30 Div II

Nine runners in this 2nd division but this times there is some known early paced types with Della Mare is the only one with a rating over today's course and distance so could go well and Big Impact who recorded its best rating at Wolverhampton and is my 2nd top rated on Tapeta rating but not recorded here at Southwell so either or both could make the frame, Gherkin looks better on Polytrack while Tantastic can find this distance too far with a fast early gallop and both could be possible lays in this race. Secret Equity is my 3rd top rated using Tapeta ratings from elsewhere but my money will be riding on STARSONG 9/4, this 3yo won last time out and looks to have been found a good opportunity to follow up here. 

Starsong 9/4 1st +2.25pts

Total +2.25pts

NEWCASTLE 7.15 Div I

Ten runners in this class 6 sprint, the 3yo One More Dream won last time out in a relatively slow run race and will need to improve time wise but these youngsters can improve dramatically from race to race, if there is a fast early pace Macho Pride might struggle to stay the distance but with only Rockley Point, my 3rd top rated using a 2021 rating, known as a front running type this race might not be run at a fast gallop from the off so I'm not sure I can lay anything with confidence, Yaahobby is my 2nd top rated and is another 3yo so it could improve further but I will be backing LADY CELIA 10/1 (EW) in stall 9 who is usually held up for a late run and those drawn middle to high can have an advantage on this course and at the price it has to be an each way punt. 

Lady Celia 10/1 6th -2pts 

Total -2pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.45 Div II

This 2nd division seems the weaker of the 2 races, there's only Miss Calculation who had led before but that was only on sufferance and may have to do so again here but I don't think this is its favoured surface so may be worth laying along with Kath's Toyboy for the same reasoning. Most of the runners look quite poor and I can only see MY BOY JACK 9/4 as a possible bet, I think it will the favourite to win this race but it hasn't won from 14 runs with 6 of them being on an artificial surface but its rating is quite a few spots above the 2nd placed horses rating and looks well in according to my figures but the lack of a win is a major danger signal.

My Boy Jack 9/4 3rd -1pt 

Lay bets Kath's Toyboy -4pts,  Miss Calculation +1pt

Total -4pts 

Total on the day -0.75pts

8:05 Newcastle Racing Tips (11th October)

NEWCASTLE 8.05 

A 12 runner race where half of the contestants are 3yo’s and a quarter are front running types, I would look to lay Atomise 9/1 if its of value to do so as I think this one will prefer a longer distance to show its true worth and will stay on too late here to achieve the victory, Al Ameen 11/4 has only produced slow times over this distance both here and at Wolverhampton on the Tapeta surface and the Polytrack surface at Lingfield and the way it stayed on it might be another that needs further to shine and I would definitely lay it at the price, Pockley 8/1 is my 4th top rated using a speed figure it recorded in 2020 over this course and distance so we know it does like this course which is always a bonus and could make the frame, Nickleby 12/1 comes out in 3rd top spot and being a possible pacesetter it could do enough from the front to make the frame so maybe worth an each way punt, in 2nd top spot is Rhythm but this ones best rating came from on the turf at Windsor but its one and only previous run over today's course and distance resulted in it not going fast enough to register on my speed figures so not sure what to expect of this one but I would err on the side of caution and maybe even lay it if its a short price, I will be taking a punt in this race on CAPTAIN VALLO 9/1 (EW) who recorded a speed figure last year over this course and distance that would see it winning this race comfortably, in its defense it has only had one run over this course and distance since then where it didn't run well but if its done a fast time before it shows what it is capable of a repeat here would be plenty good enough, it hasn't got great trainer/jockey stats but still its had a couple of third place finishes in its last six runs on grass and I'm hoping the switch back to this artificial surface will rejuvenate its performances and see it back in the winners circle and an each way price would be nice.

Captain Vallo 9/1 8th -2pts 

Lay bet Al Ameen +1pt 

Total on the day -1pt  

4:35 Doncaster Racing Tips (30th July)

DONCASTER 4.35 

I can see a couple of front running types in this sprint, Redzone 10/1 may need further, True Mason 15/2 doesn't seem to want good to firm going and Dandy Dimont 9/1 may struggle to stay the distance with a fast early gallop so all could be worth laying if value to do so, Thornaby Park 11/2 would need to improve time wise to win this race so could be added to that list, Giogiobbo 15/2 is one of the possible pacesetters and my joint 3rd top rated so could do enough to make the frame, Mutanaaseq 11/1 is the other joint 3rd top rated and likes to stay on at the finish after tracking the leaders in the early stages, EAST STREET REVUE 11/2 is the other known front running type and if getting to the front could be hard to peg back but I do have CAPTAIN VALLO 16/1 (EW) rated 1lb higher so if everything goes its way it could pick up the leader virtually on the line and i will back them both to cover the angles with the latter's price it has to be an each way wager. 

Captain Vallo 16/1 3rd +2.2pts 

East Street Revue 14/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bets True Mason -3.3pts, Redzone +1pt

Total  -1.1pts

LINGFIELD 6.45 

Again I can see a couple of known front running types, I will look to lay Kath's Toyboy 9/2 who may prefer a longer distance and has never won over this trip, I Am A Dreamer 12/1 is a possible pacesetter and my 4th top rated so could go well, Big Impact 9/2 and Harbour Storm 25/1 are my joint 2nd top rated with the latter being the other known front running type and all 3 of them might be worth backing as covering bets as none of them have good trainer and or jockey stats so I'm not sure which one/s of them will run to their best but my top rated is REAL ESTATE 7/1 but once again its trainer/jockey stats ain't great so my stakes wont be at full strength.

Real Estate 9/1 1st +9pts 

Lay bet  Kath's Toyboy +1pt

Total +10pts

Total on the day +8.9pts

2:55 Thirsk Racing Tips (14th June)

THIRSK 2.55 

A field of 12 for this class 4 sprint, the early paced could be set by The Armed Man and/or Spartan Fighter and either could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead but there's a few that like to track the leaders which should ensure there is a fast early gallop, Huddle Up 9/1 doesn't seem to like fast going so will be a lay if of value to do so, East Street Revue seems better over shorter distances but I expect it will too big a price to lay, Badri is my 4th top rated and one that likes to track the leaders, as for finding the winner I have got 3 horses that could do so but all 3 also have negatives against their name, WENTWORTH FALLS 10/1 who’s jockey is 0-12 for the stable and the stable has a poorish win ratio of 8%, GHATHANFAR 4/1 the trainer is 0-14 runners and 42 days since their last winner and at this course they are 1-59 and the jockey is 0-15 for the stable, CAPTAIN VALLO 8/1 the trainer is 1-33 at this course with their older horses and its been 25 days and 8 runners since their last winner, I think I will go with dutching the 3 of them but my stakes will be kept on the low side because of those negatives. 

Ghathanfar 4/1 2nd -1pt 

Captain Vallo 8/1 4th -1pt 

Wentworth Falls 6th -1pt

Total -3pts

THIRSK 5:15 

A ten runner dash with two front running types, I could look to lay both of the 3yo’s in this race but I am always wary of doing so because at their age they can improve without warning although I think both of them will be better suited to a longer distance but hey ho I am no expert and have been caught out before laying young horses, Lost My Sock 5/1 also races as though it will be better off over further but comes out 3rd top rated on my figures so could run on and make the frame, Cool Spirit 25/1 is actually my top rated but only by 2lb’s and hasn't been in good form lately and doesn't usually win without giving a warning of a return to form before actually winning a race so i will place my money on HARROGATE 13/2 who is one of the 2 front runners I mentioned earlier and could hopefully lead all the way here and did win two runs ago so is in decent form. 

Harrogate 13/2 7th -1pt 

Total -1pt

BRIGHTON 5.20 

Only six runners with two known front running types amongst them, both Iconic Knight 9/2 and Tributo 15/2 look as though they would be better racing over further and might be worth laying, Equally Fast 11/4 could do best of those coming from off the pace being my 2nd top rated, Street Parade 11/4 one of the front running types is my 3rd top rated so could go well but i will be hoping that AISH 13/2 will be the one to set the pace to the race and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and is dropped in class to run in this race and the trainer has a 19% win ratio at this course.

Aish 13/2 5th -1pt 

Lay bet Iconic Knight +1pt 

Total 0pts 

Total on the day -4pts

5:30 Newcastle Racing Tips (5th November)

NEWCASTLE 5.30 

A nice looking class 4 race and a full house of 14 runners, there is 3 or 4 that have been known to lead before so it should be a true run race, I would lay Ginger Jam 10/1 if it was single figure price as this trip might be too far for it with a fast early pace and the 3yo River Tweed 4/1 can be added to the list as I am not convinced this surface will suit it after winning on good to soft conditions on grass, Lezardieux my 4th top rated and Giogiobbo 25/1 my 3rd top rated have both been known to lead so there should be a good fast early pace and being in stalls 2 and 13 the early pace should be spread out across the course and at the price the latter maybe worth a small each way punt, Fortamour in stall 9 is my 2nd top rated and should be staying on at the finish but my money will be riding on the 3yo CAPTAIN VALLO 4/1 who has one win and 2 placed efforts to its name from 3 runs on an artificial surface and this one is another that ought to be staying on strongly at the finish but i am not convinced you want a low draw at this straight course but if able to reproduce its best speed rating it ought to win with a little bit in hand. 

Bets: 

CAPTAIN VALLO 4/1 2PW 8th -2pts

GINGER JAM 6/1 3PL (TOO BIG) 

Total -2pts

NEWCASTLE 6.00 

To be honest this class 5 race is as bad as they get, I'm not sure I can find anything of value to lay in this race unless Fine Wine is a single figure price, which I somehow doubt, but when it comes to finding the winner my analysis keeps bumping into negatives, on my speed figures I've got 2 horses that are top rated on just 2021 course and distance ratings and then 2 others that have better ratings but from last year, I hope that the early pace might be set by VAN GERWEN 18/1 who is joint 3rd top rated for just this year and 2nd top on my overall figures and will hopefully be an each way bet, QAARAAT 18/1 has been in poor form lately and its best course and distance time this year is quite a bit lower than its 2020 figure which would make it my top rated by just 2lbs and this one has been known to bounce back to form without any warning and this ones stable has had 4-12 winners in the last 2 week so maybe worth a small each way punt at the price, FOR PEATS SAKE 4/1 comes out 2nd top rated on just this years ratings and being a 3yo it could still improve but isn't the best of value but I cant dismiss it as it could easily win this race, I have TANASOQ 13/2 in top spot for this years ratings and it showed a bit of a return to form when finishing 2nd last time out, I will be dutching all four of them to small stakes and each way bets if they are value to do so. 

Bets: 

DUTCH HALF A POINT EACH = 

2PW VAN GERWEN 18/1 (EW) Unp -2pts + QAARAAT 18/1 (EW) 6th -2pts + TANASOQ 13/2 (EW) 7th -2pts + FOR PEATS SAKE 4/1 4th -1pt

2PL STRONG POWER 13/2 +2pts

Total -5pts 

Total on the day -7pts

2:50 Newcastle Racing Tips (19th October)

NEWCASTLE 2.50 

A full house of 14 runners with 3 known front running types amongst them and Jordan Electrics, my 2nd top rated and Giogiobbo my joint 4th top rated will make sure its a true run race and both of them might be worth looking at for an each way punt, there's a couple of possible hidden dangers in Pagan and Silver Samurai which means my stakes will be kept low, I'm not sure if anything I see that I might lay will be a worthwhile price so I will hold fire on the lays till I see some betting, my money will be riding on CAPTAIN VALLO 5/1 a 3yo that won last time out in a fast time, admittedly it was in a lower class race but I'm hoping this is an improving 3yo and can take the upgrade in its stride and follow up again here. 

Captain Vallo 5/1 2nd -1pt

Total -1pt 

KEMPTON 5.00 

A fairly nice looking class 5 dash with 2 front running sort’s to ensure there's a fast early pace, La Roca Del Fuego has been in cracking form winning its last 4 races on an artificial surface but they were all recorded at Chelmsford and hasn't any form over this course and distance, 3 of its 4 wins were over 6 furlongs but it did win over five furlongs last time out by leading all the way but that time would only be good enough for 3rd top spot on my overall figures and it might not be quite fast enough to lead in this race as my top rated SPIRIT POWER 11/1 (EW) is also a front running type who has good trainer and jockey stats although the trainer is 0-9 for the last 2 weeks its only 23 days since they had a winner and will be the one carrying my money with an each way wager at the price, the horse that might do best of those coming form off the pace could be Smokey who has a time from Lingfield last year that makes it my 2nd top rated on my overall figures and strangely none of the horses in this race have a recorded time for this year so everything is more of a gamble. 

Spirit Power 22/1 7th -2pts 

Total -2pts 

NEWCASTLE 5.40 

I will wait until the day of the race before deciding if there's anything worthwhile laying in this race as it does look a very competitive affair and I am not 100% sure its race to be betting in at all, on the clock I looked at ANOTHER ANGEL 9/2 one of the possible pacesetters and comes out 3rd best on my overall figures using a 2020 time so could go well but the trainer is 0-11 in the last 2 weeks which muddies the waters, LORD OF THE GLEN 6/1 is another possible front runner and comes out in top spot using a time from 2020 when it won over this course and distance but the trainers 0-17 in the last 2 weeks doesn't fill me with confidence,YOUNG TIGER 8/1 could be the one to prosper if the leaders tire but once again I am using a 2020 time to find its best speed figure and hasn't shown much in its last few runs on turf so maybe the switch back to the All-Weather will inspire it to bounce back to form so I will be dutching the three of them.

Lord Of The Glen 6/1 2nd -1pt 

Young Tiger 8/1 8th -1pt 

Another Angel 9th -1pt 

Total -3pts 

Total on the day -6pts

3:20 Redcar Racing Tips (14th September)

REDCAR 3.20 

This race may not be quite what it seems, firstly there isn't a known front running type amongst the 8 runners and then secondly the time the 3yo RUNNINWILD 5/1 recorded at Carlisle is very very high for this class of race so if that time is a true reflection it would win cosily and it does have good jockey stats, if that time isn't to be believed then the win could fall to another 3yo CAPTAIN VALLO 3/1, both of them like to track the leaders but that applies to 7 of the runners in total, I will probably have small bets on both of them, if there was a guarantee of a fast early pace I would have looked to lay both Khabib 9/1 and Wades Magic 3/1 who both look better prospects when racing over a shorter distance. 

Runninwild 5/1 3rd -1pt 

Captain Vallo 7/2 4th -1pt 

Lay bets: Wade's Magic 3/1 -3pts, Khabin +1pt

Total -4pts

YARMOUTH 4.00 

Just 6 runners for this class 5 race and its another race without a known front running type but there is a horse I fancy quite strongly for this race but the lack of known pace is a concern, Mehmo 5/1 can struggle to stay the sixth furlong if there is a strong early gallop so it might be ok in this race, Papa Stour 5/2 might prefer a longer trip to show its best so may struggle here and one I will look to lay as it looks poor value in my opinion, the 3yo Rabat is my 3rd top rated while Napping comes out 2nd top rated using a time from 2020 over this course and distance, my money will be riding on MOLLY SHAW 3/1 who is top rated on a time recorded here this year and has good trainer/jockey stats. 

Molly Sure 3/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets: Pap Stour 2/1 -2pts

Total -3pts

YARMOUTH 4.30 

There's 9 runners in this 5 furlong dash with 4 known front runners in the race, firstly I will look to lay Bomb Proof 4/1 who has made the frame twice recently but its best runs on turf on good and good to firm ground have resulted in relatively slow times the trainer does have decent 15% win ratio and the jockeys stats are 24% win ratio but if the horse isn't good enough nothing can change that fact, stats do have a part to play but are definitely not the be all and end all of race analysis although a good jockey should get the best it can out of the horse, maybe the early pace will come from Zapper Cass 9/1 or Expert Opinion who are my 2nd and 4th top rated so if the former gets to the front it could prove hard to catch and might be worth a small each way wager, Amor De Mi Vada 3/1 sits in 3rd top spot so could run on to make the frame but isn't an each way price, my top rated is GRANDFATHERTOM 20/1 who usually likes to track the leaders before staying on the stronger nearing the finish, its only had the one run this year and that was 19 days ago where I blasted off from the front, not a usual tactic, so that should have blow away and rustiness as before that run it had a run since November 2020, if fully wound up with 4 early paced types in the race this race could be run to suit its racing style. 

Grandfather Tom 20/1 5th -2pts 

Lay bets: Bomb Proof +1pt

Total -1pt 

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.20

I've marked down 5 runners from this field of 11 runners that I would look to lay depending upon the prices but I'm doubting if many if any will be a single figure price but at the price I would look to lay I'm Watching You 4/1 as it might prefer a longer trip, Twice As Likely and Billy Dylan are my joint 3rd top rated but in both instances the times were recorded in 2020, Captain Ryan is one of 3 possible pacesetters in this race but there might be something else a bit faster in the early stages although it is my 2nd top rated but I do have JORVIK PRINCE 4/1 rated a few spots higher, I tipped it up last time out but that day the blindfold was removed late and the horse was at least 5 lengths off the pace from the off which isn't any good for a front running type, it did stay on for 3rd in that race but I am hoping again it can lead all the way in this race.

Jorvik Prince 4/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets: I'm Watching You +1pt

Total: 0pts

Total on the day -8pts