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Tuesday, 14 December 2021

2:25 Lingfield Racing Tips (15th December)

LINGFIELD 2.25 

DURDLE DOOR 11/2 a possible pacesetter who hasn't run over this course and distance, it has a mediocre rating from Kempton but a higher rating from Chelmsford so not sure what to expect but the jockeys 0-17 record for the stable makes me think they have a future target in mind. 

GHAALLYA 16/1 is versatile when it comes to racing tactics and could lead if allowed to dictate and set a slightly slower early pace to keep something in reserve for the finish which I don't think will happen, it hasn't run at this course before and it would need to improve on its best time recorded at Wolverhampton.

LOTHIAN 14/1 can either be held up for a late run or track the leaders but time wise it would need to improve on both its course and distance speed figure and its better rating recorded at Chelmsford. 

CAPPANANTY CON 18/1 is another one that is quite versatile with its racing tactics and it has been known to lead before usually when nothing else wants to and that could happen in this race which could mean that its stall 12 draw might not be a big a negative as usual and if getting to the front it could prove a hard nut to crack. 

HURCLE 40/1 has shown very little in its three runs this year, it can track the leaders or be held up for a late run but time wise its sits outside my top four ratings and may struggle to catch the leaders in this race and I think it will be an outsider in this race.

CAMACHESS 8/1 has a speed figure from February this year over this course and distance which makes it my 3rd top rated in this race, it usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on nearing the finish and could at least make the frame.

PATSY FAGAN 9/1 on what this one has shown so far with its speed figures it would need to improve quite a few spots but it is only a 3yo so could be capable of improvement but its last 2 runs haven't shown much and i hope it doesn't improve too much here. 

PRINCELY 16/1 has only relatively slow times on recent form and it hasn't won from 13 previous runs on an artificial surface but has made the frame twice but its not for me in this race and i think it will be another outsider in the betting. 

*PORTELET BAY 6/1 hasn't ever run over this distance on this surface and hasn't won from 6 previous All-Weather races, making the frame in two of them, it may not like this surface and seems a bit of a weak finisher whatever distance they run it over and maybe worth laying at the price. 

DEPUTISE 7/2 has only slow ratings for its more recent course and distance forays and even its best rating on the Tapeta surface leaves it short of breaking into my top four ratings and I am surprised its such a short price.

PABLO DEL PUEBLO 4/1 this 3yo won last time out recording a speed figure that would make it my third or fourth top rated so it could run another good race hear and may even get to follow up that win of 19 days ago, it usually races in midfield or held up for a late run. 

REAL ESTATE 22/1 has one high speed figure when it got towed along in a fast run race and that is becoming to look like a flukey one off rating and has been in poor form on it’s more recent runs. 

SUMMARY: I think I will start with a horse that I will be looking to lay in this race as Portelet Bay is forecast to be the second favourite around the four to one price but it still hasn't managed a win on the AW tracks and I think this surface may not be its favoured one and it needs to improve on its best rating from Wolverhampton, as for the winner I will be backing three horses firstly CAMACHESS who is my 2nd top rated on just 2021 c/d times and may really be top with question marks about the top rated horses rating most likely being a fluke or one off time and it likes to track the leaders the other bet will be on CAPPANANTY CON who from stall 12 may be forced into making an early attempt to either lead or at least contest the lead and if getting to the front could prove hard to catch and this horse has been known to spring back to form without prior warning and finally PABLO DEL PUEBLO 4/1 who won last time out and could be an improving 3yo and could follow up here.

*NR 

Camachess 13/2 3rd -1pt 
Capananty Con 18/1 4th 
Pablo Del Pueblo 4/1 5th -1pt 

Total on the day -3pts


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