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Wednesday 29 December 2021

5:00 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (30th December)


ABERAMA GOLD has a fast time from Lingfield this year but its best rating on the Tapeta surface is a good few spots lower and usually needs a run for fitness after a break so one I will look to lay if of value to do so which I think 6/1 is value to lay it. 

FIZZY FEET is dropped in class to run in this race and the jockey does quite well for the stable so connections might be expecting a big run but it does need to improve on its best c/d time from this year while its best 2020 time could see it make the frame so maybe each way at 8/1. 

CORINTHIA KNIGHT has poor recent form to its name and may also need a shorter distance to show its best form and the jockey is 0-12 for the stable and I would look to lay this one at 15/2.

SHALLOW HAL has a time from Newcastle which could see it make the frame but going round a bend here its previous c/d runs have produced a rating a good few spots lower than its best overall figure, its been in poor form recently and another that I would look to lay at 15/2. 

MUSCIKA this one is the one i think will set the pace to this race and was a beaten favourite last time it ran and the switch of jockey looks a positive move and it is my top rated on just 2020 c/d times. 

ASTRO JAKK hasn't any form on this surface this year but its top ratings from 2020 at both here and Newcastle would see it being competitive but the jockeys 1-23 record for this stable doesn't fill me with confidence and stall 8 isn't a great help which is enough to put me off its chances. 

INVINCIBLE LARNE has a time from Chelmsford im 2020 which would make it my top rated on overall figures but its best rating on this surface is quite a bit below that level and would leave it needing to improve a fair few spots. 

BALLYARE the trainer does quite well at this course, 2-7 with just those few runners but I think this one might find itself outclassed in this race although it did record a decent rating this year and it might make the frame but I would lay the win part at 5/1. 

IDOAPOLOGISE this horse won on good to firm ground on turf but it was a relatively slow time and may need further to show its best and one I would lay if its a single figure price, which I doubt it will be. 

SUMMARY: This class 3 is very competitive and the form lines and speed ratings crossover each other at various different courses and at first glance it looked nearly impossible to predict the winner but I am hoping I have found the deciding factor, MUSCIKA 7/2 was the 9/4 favourite last time out but was pestered for the lead and faded badly nearing the finish and finished nearer last than first, there is a switch of jockeys for this race and today's pilot has a better record for the stable and I'm hoping it can lead here and then prove too hard to catch.

Muscika 3rd 6/1 -1pt 

Lay bets Amerama Gold +1pt, Ballyare +1pt

Total on the day +1pt 

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