MUSCIKA 4/1 this one has one relatively slow time from Newcastle on this Tapeta surface but has a fast time on Polytrack at Chelmsford but I think this surface doesn’t suit it so I might take the risk and lay it if its a single figure price.
POLITICS 10/1 is one of 3 in this race that have been known to lead before so stall 3 should be ok but its best course and distance time is a bit short of making my top 4 ratings but being a 3yo it could still improve.
THE CRUISING LORD 12/1 hasn’t run on the AW surfaces this year before here but its best time from 2020 makes it my 2nd top rated on my overall figures and top rated on just this course and distance speed figures and the jockey does well riding for this trainer.
THE LAMPLIGHTER 7/2 usually likes to track the leaders and then run on at the finish but time wise it would need to improve to even make the frame if others run to their best and from stall 4 in the make-up of this race it might need a degree of luck to get a clear run in the early stages of the race so maybe worth laying at single figure odds.
PHOENIX STAR 11/2 can be held up for a late run or track the leaders and then stay on but it would need to improve time wise to win this race, it isn’t even in my top 4 ratings but it is in good form finishing 2nd last time out twenty two days ago, it could make the frame but I'm not 100% convinced it can win this race.
RAMIRO 12/1 has only had one race since coming over from Ireland and looking at it’s form over there it looks likely it will need a longer distance to show it’s true worth, its not value to lay and I couldn't back it either.
TEMPLE BRUER 12/1 is a 3 year old who likes to track the pacesetters and then stay on at the finish but it’s best speed figure isn’t good enough to make my top 4 ratings so will need to improve to win this race.
ENDURING 9/1 this 3yo is the second possible pacesetter and stall 5 isn’t too bad but does have the other two front running types on it’s inside but I am not sure if it is fast enough away to lead in this race but this is it’s debut on Tapeta so could possibly improve being a youngster.
I AM A DREAMER 25/1 the third and final pace making type and from stall 2 it should gain control of the rails and should do best of the early paced types and could do enough from the front to make the frame so maybe worth an each way interest at the price.
ONE HART 12/1 hasn’t been in top form recently plus this distance might be a bit too short for it to show it’s best while it’s best time recorded at Lingfield earlier this year would only be good enough for 5th top spot on my speed figure ratings.
EL HOMBRE 20/1 is only a seven year old but time wise it has got gradually slower since 2019 when that figure would be good enough for 2nd top spot and the jockeys 3lb claim would make it joint top rated but recent times would see it fall short so it’s not for me.
INEVITABLE OUTCOME 12/1 is a hold up type who runs on well nearing the finish over this distance but it’s best course and distance time which was recorded this year would see it fall just short of making my top four ratings so may not get there quickly enough in this race.
RED WALLS 8/1 won when running thirty three days ago that win was at this course but over the minimum five furlongs distance and it races as though the sixth furlong is too far for it to show its best and one i would lay if a single figure price.
SUMMARY: As usual the form lines and speed figures crisscross each other which always makes analysis that much harder, I think I Am A Dreamer will set the pace to the race and gives me a good yardstick from which to start and being my 4th top rated overall it could make the frame and may be worth an each way interest if it’s a double figure price, I will discount, and possibly lay, my top rated Muscika who isn’t guaranteed to like this surface so my money will be riding on THE CRUISING LORD 12/1 (EW) who likes to track the leaders but my stakes will be kept in check as it is drawn twelve of thirteen in this race but if getting a good early position and a clear run when staying on at the finish it has every chance to get back to winning ways in this race.
The Cruising Lord Unp -2pts
Lay bets Muscika -6pts, The Lamplighter+1pt
Total on the day -7pts
No comments:
Post a Comment