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Thursday, 2 December 2021

4:45 Newcastle Racing Tips (3rd December)

NEWCASTLE 4.45 

This looks a good race for a class 5 affair WITH a full complement of 14 runners with just one known front runner amongst them, firstly there isn't any horse I could put forward as a lay because everything I have a negative against are forecast to be a double figure price so don't represent any value, before looking at any apprentices claim there is only 5lbs between my top five ratings, Chookie Dunedin 14/1 starts off as my 5th top rated but the apprentices 3lb claim moves it up to 3rd top spot but this one hasn't been in good form recently but could possibly be worth an each way interest, Burrows Seeside 6/1 and Gowanlad 6/1 are my joint 3rd top rated before being relegated into joint 4th top spot, Hart Stopper 11/2 starts off as my top rated and the apprentices 5lb claim would move it further clear but the jockey is 0-3 on the stables older horses and has only ridden one previous winner for the stable and may need this run for fitness after about 6 months off, my money will be riding on SPARTAN FIGHTER 6/1 who is the one I think will set the pace to the race and is well drawn in stall 12 to do just that and has been found a good chance to follow up its win last time out and the apprentice jockey has a decent 15% win ratio on the stables older horses. 

Spartan Fighter 6/1 1st +1pt 

Total +6pts 

NEWCASTLE 5.45 

This class 3 race looks very very tricky, 7 of the 13 runners have been known to lead before so it could end up being a frantic early pace and I think a lot of the field will struggle to get involved and the leaders will be hard to peg back, I will look to lay Tommy De Vit (now a non-runner) who has pieces of form that look good but both of its wins came in relatively slow run races and that wont happen here, both Giogiobbo and Tathmeen are capable of producing a good speed figure but the former usually does so in lower class races and the both have been in poor form for quite a while now, the rest I have negatives against are forecast to be double figure prices so will be left alone, I will be backing two horses in this race and i am hoping they will both be each way prices, MOHAREB 16/1 (EW) is a front running type and stall 10 should be a bonus although I have been looking at a 2020 rating and hasn't been quite as good so far this year, the other is KIND REVIEW 14/1 (EW) who is drawn in stall 8 but this one hasn't been in good form lately but it did record its top rating earlier this year and if coming back to form it would have every chance of winning this race from the front so i will be going with two each way wagers in this race.

Kind Review 16/1 2nd +2.2pts
Mohareb 11/1 9th -2pts 

Total +0.2pts

Total on the day +6.2pts

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