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Thursday, 9 December 2021

6:45 Southwell Racing Tips (10th December)

SOUTHWELL 6.45 

The problem will exist for a few weeks on this new Tapeta surface at this course so to tread carefully has to be the message but I did manage to find a 5/1 winner from the 2 races I posted for Tuesdays racing. 

THE DALEY EXPRESS 5/1 usually tracks the leaders or is held up for a late run so on this straight course it has a choice, it won last time out on this surface at Wolverhampton and could be thereabouts at the finish. 

MISTER BLUEBIRD 5/1 is a 3yo who has won on good and good to soft ground on turf but hasn't run on this surface before so not sure what to expect so couldn't back or lay. 

OOH IS IT 12/1 is a 3yo and a possible pacesetter who ran in the same race as today's top weight and is held on that form and I doubt it will reverse that result here and hasn't won in 5 attempts on an artificial surface and only made the frame in one of those races. 

AIRSHOW 12/1 is another that has been known to lead but time wise it would need to improve for the switch to this surface looking at its best speed figure from Chelmsford last year but using its turf form I couldn't be confident enough to lay it. 

GIOGIOBBO 10/1 hasn't any form on this surface at this distance and everything points to this distance being too short for it as its looks better over 6 furlongs or further.

TRUE HERO 8/1 is a probable front runner in this race and has been in good form lately with 2 wins and 3 places from its last 5 races and recorded its best time at Newcastle so here should suit it just fine and the jockey booking looks a positive move. 

NOT NOW ZEB 14/1 is making its debut coming over from Ireland, its has won on good and good to soft ground, its sole AW run over this distance pointed to it needing a longer distance to show its best and hasn't been in the best of form on its recent runs. 

MOONRAKER 6/1 this last ones win was on the old surface here but time wise on the AW tracks it has shown very little since 2019 and it is much better on turf and may need a longer distance to win here. 

FINE WINE 12/1 another possible pacesetter in this race but would need to improve on its best Newcastle speed figure to win this race and it might be better when switching back to the faster Polytrack surface. 

QUEEN OF KALAHARI 20/1 this is another that is a probable leader in this race and is my top rated on just 2021 course and distance times when beaten in a photo 2 runs ago but couldn't get to the front last time out in a faster run race. 

TRIBUTE 6/1 a 3yo who hasn't any form on this surface at this distance and may need further to show its best so its not for me in this race so i will lay it if its a single figure price. 

TILLA CORDATA 33/1 a 3yo making its handicap debut so they could have been fiddling with it but form wise it would need to improve greatly and I expect it ill be a big outsider in this race.

UBAHHA 22/1 a 3yo who has only made the frame once in its 7 runs to date and once again it looks as though it will need further to show its true worth and another outsider. 

BLISSFUL SONG 20/1 this 3yo has won over this distance on the old surface that was here and its another that looks as though it needs further and will be another outsider. 

SUMMARY: At first glance I thought what a poor poor race but the deeper I delved the more I found but I mustn't get carried away on this new surface but using everything at my disposal I have come to some sort of a conclusion, there is six 3yo’s in this race which always makes me more careful but I don't fancy any of them to win this race but never say never with youngsters, if I use a time from Lingfield them The Daley Express comes out on top on my figures but as that is a different surface it might not count here and drops to joint joint 4th top on just Tapeta speed figures but could be the one to do the best coming from of the pace but the trainers 0-11 at this course is enough to put me off of it in this race and I will use its c/d figure which is a little bit short of catching the front runners, Fine Wine a possible front runner is the other joint 4th top rated but I doubt it can get to the front in this race, TRUE HERO 8/1 (EW) is my 2nd top rated on just c/d speed figures and 3rd top overall and the jockey is 1-6 for the stable and 1-2 on their older horses, its had 18 AW runs and won 5 of them and placed in another 8 of those races, my top rated on just c/d times is QUEEN OF KALAHARI 20/1 (EW) and this horse also has a decent win/place ratio on the AW tracks, it also has good trainer/jockey stats bot at 27% on their older horses and I will go with two each way wagers at the prices.

Queen Of Kalahari 20/1 7th -2pts 
True Hero 11/1 8th -2pts 

Total on the day -4pts

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