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Friday 10 December 2021

5:00 Newcastle Racing Tips (11th December)


To be completely honest this is a very poor race even for class 6, I have put negatives against half of the 14 runners while I can see 3 horses that have been known to lead before and if one horse bounces back to form it could be won from the front, I am not sure if there will be any lays as all bar one of the 7 I have negatives for are forecast to be double figure prices, I've got SWISS CONNECTION 8/1 (EW) as my 3rd top rated and this one is capable of reproducing its best speed figure again and could at least make the frame and with question marks about my top 2 ratings I will have to back this one as well, BLACKCURRENT 18/1 (EW) is my top rated on just 2021 ratings but the jockey is 0-4 for the stable but could make the frame while my top rated horse ROCKLEY POINT 28/1 (EW) becomes my top rated using a rating from 2020 and drops to 2nd top using a time recorded earlier this year but has been way out of form lately and it has poor trainer, 5% and jockey 0-15 stats which puts me off a little but could be worth an each way punt an I cannot see anything else to do but back the three of them with each way bets at the odds available. 

Backcurrent 22/1 1st +22pts 
Swiss Connection 8/1 4th -2pts 
Rockley Point 33/1 Unp -2pts 

Total +18pts 


A 9 runner race with a couple of known front running types, I will be looking to lay Corvair 15/2 who races as though a longer distance would suit it better and the jockeys record is 0-14 for the stable, Temple Bruer comes out a my 3rd top rated but that was in a lower class race and may be out of its depth in this race, the top weight Fizzy Feet (non runner) comes out 2nd best on my speed figures but that was using a 2020 time and has been a bit below that level this year but could make the frame, my money will be riding on MUSCIKA 2/1 who has won its last 3 races and could lead again here and achieve the four timer I expect it will be the favourite but might be worth including in a multiple bet. 

Muscika 9/4 7th -1pt

Lay bet Corvair +1pt 

Total 0pts


I can see a couple of possible pacesetters in this race but I doubt that they can hold on for the win as they both need to improve time wise, I'm not sure if there is anything of value to put forward as a lay bet in this race but the betting will be the deciding factor as usual, El Hombre is my 4th top rated but that is using a 2020 time and this horses seems to be getting a bit slower each year, Vape comes out top rated on just 2021 course and distance times but that is only good enough for 3rd top spot overall, Ballyare comes 2nd best but I had to go back to 2019 to find this ones rating but in its defence it has not run over this course and distance since that year and the apprentice jockey booking could be a positive and it could make the frame, I have to admit my top rated STORM OVER 33/1 (EW) hasn't shown much in its last 5 runs and has only ran once over this course and distance this year but its best time from 2020 puts it in top spot and the apprentices 5b claim could tip things more in its favour, it is a bit more of a gamble but at the price I cannot let it run without a few quid riding on it as an each way punt.

Storm Over 40/1 Unp -2pts 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day +16pts

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