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Thursday, 27 January 2022

2:45 Lingfield Racing Tips (28th January)

LINGFIELD 2.45 

STORM MELODY 4/1 sits just outside my top 4 speed figures for this race but has been in good form lately which is always a positive.

NOT NOW ZEB 14/1 has an ok rating from Southwell but hasn't run on this surface in this country, it might prefer further or a different surface maybe both.

HOWZAK 7/1 one of 4 known front runners in this race it comes out top on just 2021/22 c/d speed figures and its 2nd top on my overall figures. 

LA ROCA BEL FUEGO 7/1 has been known to lead but stall 10 isn't going to be good in the make-up of this race and needs to improve time wise on its best Chelmsford rating. 

LETHAL BLAST 16/1 in stall 2 has the best of the draw for a front runner but its speed figure doesn't quite put it in my top four ratings.

LOTHIAN 9/1 this is another that's just outside my top 4 ratings and races as though further might be better for it so maybe get to the leaders too late to win this race. 

SHAMSHON 12/1 hasn't been in good form lately but using a 2020 rating it comes out top rated but recent ratings leave it outside my top 4 ratings. 

GLAMOROUS FORCE 11/1 hasn't any form on this surface and would need to improve on its best rating which comes from Wolverhampton..

TOPLIGHT 9/2 is my 4th top rated using a Chelmsford speed figure and is usually held up for a late run but maybe it wont get to the leaders in time for the win.

WINGS OF A DOVE 6/1 the 4th possible pacesetter but stall 8 isn't the best with 2 other fast starters on its inside and hasn't won from 6 previous AW runs so one to lay at the price. 

SUMMARY: I will look to lay Wings Of A Dove 6/1 who’s best rating might have been a one off where getting towed along in a fast run race, it is fairly tight on my figures between quite a few of the runners but i will be hoping that HOWZAK 7/1 can lead or at least contest the lead from the off and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch. 

Howzak 10/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bet Wings Of A Dove +1pt

Total 0pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.45 

SIR HECTOR 10/3 has a figure from 2019 that puts it in 3rd top spot and hasn't any c/d form since then so it could make the frame but not an each way price.

Q TWENTY BOY 5/1 would need to improve time wise to win this and that is mainly down to it looking like it needs further to show its best. 

SHANGHAI ROCK 8/1 has poor recent form to its name and needs to improve on both its Chelmsford and Southwell ratings to win this race and could be worth laying. 

SAN JUAN 7/1 hasnt run on this surface before and would need to improve on its Chelmsford best rating for the switch but I couldn't back or lay this one. 

AMAZING AMAYA 6/1 has ratings from both Southwell and here over this distance which it would need to improve on to be winning this race so maybe another one to lay. 

YOU'RE COOL 6/1 has the stall 1 draw which is ideal for this front running type and its my top rated on recent c/d figures and 2nd top on my overall figures. 

QAARAAT 7/2 is an enigma who can run well or badly and your never sure what to expect but its usually the negative and i had o go back to 2020 to find its best rating and is poor value. 

LA CHICA LOBO 66/1 has only poor recent form and it will be a shock if this one wins and I expect it will be an outsider. 

SUMMARY: I have to hope Qaaraat 7/2 isn't on one of its very good days where it runs to its best but its too erratic and inconsistent to be backing in this race especially at the price as he's let me down a few times recently or maybe age is catching up with 7 year old who has had over a hundred races, 72 on the AW tracks with 5 wins, I will look to lay all or some of Q Twenty Boy 5/1, Shanghai Rock 8/1 and Amazing Amaya 6/1 if they are single figure prices at the off, I will be hoping that YOU'RE COOL 6/1 can get away smartly and make full use of its stall 1 draw and lead all the way to victory.

You're Cool 6/1 1st +6pts 

Lay bet Q Twenty Boy +1pt, Shanghai Rock +1pt

Total +8pts 

Total on the day +8pts

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