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Monday, 31 January 2022

4:50 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (1st February)

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.50 

CREEK HARBOUR 5/1 I'm not sure if this one needs a shorter distance or a different surface, maybe even both and might be worth laying. 

STRIKE ME A POSE 9/2 hasn't won on the All-Weather tracks in its previous 5 attempts and needs to improve time wise and another perhaps to lay. 

TAHONTA 40/1 hasn't any form on this surface over this distance and might need a longer distance to show its true worth but I think it will be an outsider. 

ACES 9/1 its best time from 2021 over this course and distance would make it my second top rated and is usually held up for a late run. 

GRIGGY 13/2 can struggle at times if there's a really fast early pace for the class of race so this race could be run to suit it and is my 2nd top rated. 

GIGI'S BEACH 6/1 could be the one to set the pace to this race and is my 5th top rated so could be dangerous with an easy lead but being an amateur riders race I doubt that will happen.

HACHERT 8/1 comes out in top spot of my figures and usually runs on nearing the finish but the jockeys 0-2 is a little bit off-putting but it could go well. 

BIRDIE BOWERS 5/1 hasn't any form on this course and has only slow times from Newcastle over this distance and may be better when running over further so another one to possibly lay. 

FOOL PROOF 12/1 has only poor recent form and I expect it will be one of the outsiders in this race and will be a bit of a shock if it was to win. 

NOZIERES 50/1 has a time from Lingfield that would make it 5th top on my figures but its 3 runs on this surface have been poor and another outsider. 

TOP BOY 16/1 is a hold up type and I don't think this is its favourite surface although it comes out 4th top so could make the frame but iI doubt it will win.

DECONSO 20/1 has only poor recent form to its name and I expect it will be an outsider and a shock if this one wins. 

SUMMARY: If the betting makes them of value to lay I will do so with Creek Harbour, Birdie Bowers and Strike Me A Pose, as for the winner I have narrowed it down to three but in these amateur jockeys races are not ones to be betting too heavily in, Aces is 3rd top rated and a hold up type but could be worth an each way punt, Hachert comes out in top spot but if the jockeys 0-2 record means anything negatively it drops down to second top spot so I will be putting my pennies on GRIGGY 13/2 who is usually held up so may need some luck to get a clear run but does have good trainer stats of a 22% win ratio and the amateur rides is one from one for the stable so hope he keeps his one hundred percent record here. 

Griggy 10/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Strike Me A Pose -3.3, Creek Harbour +1pt, Birbie Bowers +1pt, 

Total -2.3pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.20 

SCALE FORCE 10/1 would need to improve time wise to win this race and I think that is because today's distance is a bit too short for it but I expect it to be an outsider but a lay if a single figure price.

AUTUMN TRAIL 9/1 hasn't been in great form on its latest runs but there were over two months ago but i think it will be an outsider but maybe worth laying if a single figure price.

NOT NOW ZEB 10/1 has a decent time from Lingfield that would make it my 2nd top rated but its 2 runs on Tapeta at Southwell were poor efforts so maybe this isn't its favoured surface and another possible lay if a single figure price. 

*CUBAN BREEZE 8/1 has been known to lead before but is the lowest rating of the 4 that like to lead and its poorly drawn in stall 10 so another to consider laying. 

EQUALLY FAST 16/1 if I go back to 2020 then this one comes out 5th top on just this surface ratings and might need this run for fitness after a 223 day break. 

BARE GRILLS 5/2 a possible pacesetter drawn in stall 3 and is my second top rated horse, it has good jockey stats and is 3-4 on an artificial surface so has to be respected. 

 SHAMSHON 7/1 my top rated drawn in stall 6 is another front running type and ran on nicely last time out to finish second and has a decent chance to go one better here. 

MICKS SPIRIT 6/1 this one comes out in joint third top rated on my Tapeta ratings and likes to track the leaders and could possibly make the frame but isn't really an each way price. 

AMASOVA 10/1 by going back to 2020 this is the other joint third top rated on my ratings but hasn't been near that level since that year and will either be an outsider or one to lay. 

NAGASAKI DREAM 12/1 would need to improve on its best rating mainly because this minimum distance seems too short for it and hasn't won a five furlong race. 

PAYMASTER 66/1 has only poor form to its name and will be the rank outsider unless someone knows something I don't about this one. 

SUMMARY: Firstly I will be looking to lay Equally Fast 16/1 (but not at that price) who may need this run for fitness and can struggle to stay with the pace if its a fast early pace which I expect here with 4 known front running types, my top rated is SHAMSHON 7/1 would have possibly been my only selection in this race after seeing the way it finished fast last time out admittedly ridden by an apprentice but the apprentice booked today is 0-11 for the stable which makes me wary, it will still carry some of my money but I will split my stakes and also be backing BARE GRILLS 5/2 who is my 2nd top rated,they are both front running types and if they don't go off too fast and fade then the rest will more than struggle to catch them.

*NR

Bare Grills 5/2 5th -1pt 
Shamshon 9/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bets Scale Force +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -3.3pts

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