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Wednesday, 19 January 2022

5:30 Newcastle Racing Tips (20th January)

 NEWCASTLE 5.30 

MELODIC CHARM hasn't any course form to its name but it does seem to find 6 furlongs too far so maybe today's trip will suit it better so not a bet or a lay.

NIGHT ON EARTH 11/2 runs on at the finish over this distance and might be better when racing over further and needs to improve time wise to win this race so maybe worth laying at the price. 
                                                                                          
MISS NAY NEVER 13/2 is one of three known front runners in this race but firstly it might need this run for fitness and I'm not sure this is its favoured surface so maybe worth laying at the price.

OUTRAGE 18/1 possible front runner number two and is my top rated on just 2021/22 course and distance figures but drops to 3rd top spot on my overall figures and might be worth an each way punt. 

LOOK OUT LOUIS 13/2 hasn't any distance form on the artificial surfaces to work with but it looks as though a longer distance will suit it better and maybe worth laying at the price.

ORNATE 7/2 front running type number three and comes out in second top spot using its best time from 2020 while it would need to improve on what its shown since then and looks poor value. 

BALLYARE comes out 4th top rated on 2021/22 times but top rated using its best 2020 speed figure and likes a fast pace to aim at so has a chance in this race.

BUNIANN 11/1 comes out second top rated on just recent 2021/22 speed figures and is fairly consistent and could make the frame. 

SUMMARY: With 3 front runners this race might be run to suit my top rated horse BALLYARE 5/1 it has good trainer stats and the change of jockeys looks a positive move, Ornate could go well if getting to the front but has poor trainer stats and the stable has had a winner from 77 runners in the last 252 days so maybe Outrage could do best of the front runners. 

Ballyare 9/2 2nd 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets Look Out Louis -6pts, Night On Earth +1pt

Total -6pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.00 

A typically poor class six race with two known front running types in the race, I will look to lay Bakr 9/1 if it stays a single figure price, who has only slow times in its three course and distance runs and could lose its chance by being slow away again, another lay in the shape of Intervention 13/8 who hasn't any distance form to its name, the jockey is 0-20 at this course which doesn't help its cause and it may need a longer distance to show its true worth and at the price represents poor value, Charlemaine is my 4th top rated but has been out of form lately and Ginato 12/1 sits in 3rd top spot and usually races in midfield before staying on at the finish and could make the frame, using a time from 2020 Tathmeen would come out in 2nd top spot but has been below that level since then, my money will be riding on the front running type ABSOLUTE DREAM 8/1 who could prove hard to catch if getting to the front. 

Absolute Dream 25/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bets Intervention +1pt

Total 0pts 

Total on the day -6pts   

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