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Thursday, 20 January 2022

12:10 Southwell Racing Tips (21st January)

SOUTHWELL 12.10 

Typical, there's 5 sprints for me to analyse today but my internet is down but luckily I can log onto my neighbour's but boy is it slow but better than nothing but taking me ages to do each individual race. My thread for each race will contain what I think is important while keeping it as brief as possible. Denzil's Laughing 6/1 will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late to win this race but being my 3rd top rated I'm not sure if it will be worth laying, Glen Rosa 6/1 has a fast time from Wolverhampton but that is beginning to look like a fluke time where it got towed along in a fast run race so could be one worth laying, using a time from Newcastle in 2020 Ghaallya 18/1 comes out in 2nd top spot but I will be backing and hoping that UBAHHA 11/2 can get to the front and if doing so could be hard to catch. 

Ubahha 6/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 3.25 

There's two known front runners, Airshow my 4th top rated and Aljari my 3rd top rated, in this seven runner race but I think they may be setting it up for something coming off the pace, Kratos 5/1 could be an improver but it only ran once last year and its speed figures from 2020 were relatively low so I would lay it if of value to do so, Endowed comes out second best on my figures but hasn't been in good form in its latest races, I will be backing INEVITABLE OUTCOME 5/2 who is my top rated on recent 2021/22 speed figures and its best rating from Lingfield makes it my top rated on overall figures. 

Inevitable Outcome 11/2 7th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 5.30 

I am not quite sure what will set the pace to this race but I'm hoping something does set a decent gallop, the top weight Sugar Baby 3/1 is dropped down and could go well in this race but is only 5th top on my figures although there is only 2lbs between 5th and 2nd top rated, joint 3rd top are Muatadel and Mansfield while Gorgeous General comes out in 2nd top spot using a time recorded here in 2020 while i will be backing STROXX 7/2 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and will be relying on a fast pace and others fading as its stamina kicks into play. 

Stroxx 5/1 8th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 6.30 

This is another of those low class stakes races where they are all carrying the same weight, there are a few runners that are way out of form but are biggish prices and no value to lay, Oakenshield has a good rating from 2020 but hasn't been anywhere near that level since then, Royal Heart 9/1, Sharrabang 16/1 and Wicklow Warrior 20/1 are my 5th to 3rd top rated with just 2lbs between the trio and you might fancy one to make the frame but which one I have no idea, Sleight 18/1 comes out in joint top spot but hasn't been in great form lately and its 78 days since the stable last had a winner so I will be leaving it alone and will be backing ATRAFAN 5/1 who won last time out and has been found a good opportunity to follow up here. 

Atrafan 5/1 1st +5pts  + F/C £372,63

Total +5pts

NEWCASTLE 7.00 

Toussarak 5/1 has a high rating from a time recorded at Chelmsford but doesn't seem as good on this Tapeta surface and usually stays on at the finish but might be worth laying on this surface, Tommy Taylor 11/4 races as though further would suit it better and may be worth laying here at the price as its win last time out was in a slow run affair and may have flattered it, Idoapologise 6/1 also races as though a longer trip would suit it better and maybe worth taking on if of value, Global Warning 10/3 is 3rd top on my figures and its a front running type so it could prove hard to catch for most of these but I do have GOWANLAD 10/1 (EW) rated higher and if it reproduces its best c/d time from last year it would be winning with a few spots in hand but as usual at the price it has to be an each way wager.

Gowanlad 10/1 9th -2pt 

Lay bet Tommy Taylor -2.75pts

Total -4.75pts

Total on the day -2.75pts

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