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Monday, 17 January 2022

4:20 Southwell Racing Tips (18th January)

SOUTHWELL 4.20 

A ten runner race with three known front runners, Mokaman is my second top rated on recent 2022/21 Tapeta ratings with ROYDMOOR 9/2 sitting in top spot so this should be a decent early gallop so a lot of these might not be able to get involved in the finish, on just c/d runs on this new surface here I have it very very close between The Thin Blue Line 3/1 and Bert Kibbler 5/2 who finished first and third when they met last time out but there is only 5lbs between this time compared to 10lbs last time they met so the former should win this battle this time (if only things were that simple), the former hasn't any other data at either Newcastle or Wolverhampton to work with, so will need to improve for the switch to this course, while the latter comes out third best using its best figure from Wolverhampton but that is a few spots below Roydmoor who will therefore be carrying my money. 

Roydmoor 17.2 3rd -1pt

Total -1pt                                                                                                                                                             
SOUTHWELL 4.50 Div I 

The early pace to this race might be set by May The Sixth who comes out in third top spot on my speed figures but its been out of form in its latest runs and I think it will be an outsider, Rhubarb who is my fourth top rated may be better over further but may run on at the finish to make the frame, in second top spot comes Brandy Station but this one is another that hasn't shown much form wise in recent runs which leaves me with the top rated QAARAAT 5/1 who comes out top on both Tapeta ratings from elsewhere and on recent course and distance ratings but I am never confident when backing this horse who is a rule unto its self, you write it off and it runs well while if you bank on it it doesn't quite do the business but I cannot see an alternative to back so I will have to back it to a small stake. 

Qaaraat 4/1 4th -1pt

Total -1pt   

SOUTHWELL 5.20 Div II

There are three possible pacesetters to this race where Bernard Speirpoint 2/1 may do best but I think the leaders will be setting the race up for a finishing type so at the price I will probably look to lay it, Papas Girl 4/1 is my top rated on just recent course and distance times but has only one previous run at this distance on the Tapeta surface where it was held up in a fast run race and never got to the leaders, today's opposition gives it a chance to be much closer and then stay on strongly at the finish but the trainers 1-13 and the jockeys 1-24 doesn't fill me with enough confidence to make it a bet especially at such a short price, Cometh The Man comes out third best on Tapeta times from elsewhere and may be better when racing over further so may not get to the front in time in this race but could make the frame, Raabeh 33/1 comes out in top spot but is still a maiden after twenty three races and may have been flattered with its best rating where probably getting towed along in a fast run affair and the betting shows that the bookies agree with my reasoning, YOU'RE COOL 6/1 from stall nine may be able to follow Bernard Speirpoint form stall ten across to the rails and get a good early position from which to attack late on. 

You're Cool 6/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Bernard Speirpont -3pts

Total -4pts

SOUTHWELL 7.50 

Quite a hard race to analyse to a conclusion with quite a few lightly raced sorts in the race especially with no recognised front runners in the race, I am not sure I can find anything, again, at a single figure price, that I could lay. Aces 6/1 a hold up type comes out fourth best on my figures but this race might not be run to suit this one unless something unexpectedly goes off fast and sets a really fast gallop for this class of race, if I use a time from 2020 then Fircombe Hall comes out second best using a rating recorded at Newcastle but against it is that its another hold up type so may be suited to this race, my top rated is Independence Day but its been over three years since this one last won a race and has only ever won twice from over fifty runs, my top rated on just new times over this course and distance is DEEVIOUS BEAU 9/1 and it is also 3rd top rated on Tapeta speed figures from either Newcastle or Wolverhampton, it can either be held up or track the leaders, has good trainer/jockey stats and will be carrying my money but only a small stake.

Deevisious Beau 9/1 2nd -1pt

Total -1pt

Total on the day -7pts

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