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Sunday, 27 March 2022

6:30 Newcastle Racing Tips (28th March)

NEWCASTLE 6.30 

A nice looking class 4 race with 11 entries, I can see two known front running types in Outrage 8/1 and Faustus, the former could do enough from the front to make the frame and might be worth an each way interest but I will be looking to lay Faustus 4/1 as it might need this run for fitness, like it usually does after a break, plus the trainer has had 31 runners over the last 100 days without having a winner, I will also be looking to lay Phoenix Star 5/1 who may need further to show its best form and the stable hasn't had a winner for over a month now, Buniann 12/1 who form wise might be worth a small each way interest as its my 3rd top rated but its last 2 runs have been quite poor so I won't be backing it even to make the frame but never say never, my money will be riding on GLORIOUS RIO 14/1(EW) and at the price it has to be with an each way wager, I think its overpriced but mainly that could be due to the fact the stables last winner was 81 days ago but today's 7lb claiming apprentice jockey has a 25% win ratio on the stables older horses and his claim could swing things in its favour. 

Glorious Rio 14/1 3rd +1.8pts

Lay bets Faustus -3pts, Phoenix Star +1pt

Total -0.2pts

NEWCASTLE 7.30 

The early pace in this race looks likely to come from Gowanbuster and/or Rose Bandit but I'm not sure this surface suits the latter so the former might be worth a small each way interest but it will need to bounce back to form as its recent runs have been quite poor, I can see three that I might lay if they are single figure prices at the off, Prospect 7/1 who might need further to show its best form and the trainer hasn't had a winner from 16 runners over the last 88 days, True Mason 11/2 may also require a longer distance to show its best form and its 37 runners and 138 days since this stable last tasted success, my 3rd lay is Privilege 15/2 who has been running in France so I'm not 100% sure how good the form is but it seems to run as though this trip might be a bit short for it and after a 4 month break it might need this run for fitness as its not won before when returning after a break but with this one I would wait until the off just in case they back it and if it is backed significantly then I wouldn't be laying it but I wouldn't back it either, as for the winner of this race I will be relying on ATHOLLBLAIR BOY 9/1 (EW) who has a course and distance rating from last year that would see it winning this race with a bit in hand but with the trainer not having a winner during the last 51 days I will not be betting too heavily in this class 5 race but a small each way bet could pay dividends.

Athollblair Boy 9/1 4th -2pts

Lay bets True Mason +1pt

Total -1pt

Total on the day  -1.2pts

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