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Friday, 29 April 2022

1:15 Newmarket Racing Tips (30th April)

NEWMARKET 1.15 

A nice looking Listed race with seven runners, Umm Kulthum may not want the going to be too fast, Talabaat may need further but hasn't any form in this country while Tenaya Canyon may find the distance too far if there's a fast early pace which might be set by the 3yo Flotus 10/11 who is forecast to be the hot favourite, I don't know if you've heard this saying but I was told you never back 3yo’s against their elder until June so maybe its worth laying this one so I will take the risk and back GALE FORCE MAYA 4/1 who won last time out and has been beaten very narrowly in a photograph at this level so could go well here and is in good form and has good trainer/jockey stats. 

Gale Force Maya 4/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

THIRSK 1.30 

A biggish field of 15 for this class 4 handicap with a couple of known front runners in Ahlawi and Ornate which is always useful but I doubt if either can hold on for the win but they could do enough to make the frame, the only one I can see of value to lay is Brazen Bolt 5/1 who may need further to show its best form and the jockeys 1-17 on the stables older horses makes me think they have a future target in mind, as for the winner I will be pinning my hopes on AFTER JOHN 6/1 who has made the frame in its last 2 runs and could go one better here and should have the fast pace to aim at that it seems to like. 

After John 6/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

THIRSK 2.45 

A class 3 dash with at least 4 runners that like to lead, looking at the tissue prices I might be able to lay both Saluti 4/1 who might be better over a longer distance and Running Wild who might be outclassed at this level and has poor trainer/jockey stats and it could well be the former's stablemate LEODIS DREAM 10/1 (EW) who wins this race if the 7lb claiming apprentice is worth his claim, it has won before after a break from racing but its not a race to betting too heavily in but I am hoping its an each way price. 

Leodis Dream 22/1 Unp -2pts 

Total -2pts 

NEWMARKET 3.00 

To be honest this is a weak race for a Group 1 race, I will have to wait until I see the betting for any other lays but I am looking to lay Twilight Calls who does seem on an upward curve but this is a big step up from its win in a class 3 handicap that it won last time out and might be shorter in price because of that win and it is also because its trained by a top class trainer, it is forecast to be the 5/2 favourite on the early tissue prices, I will be backing the horse with the highest class proven form and that is TIS MARVELLOUS 5/1 who has been known to lead before and there doesn't appear to be much other early speedsters in the race so could lead all the way and has been known to win when coming back after a break before but the trainers 0-14 at this course is a little off putting so my stakes will be kept low. 

Tis Marvellous 10/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Twillight Calls +1pt 

Total 0pts

DONCASTER 6.30 

Just 6 runners for this class 2 race which has two known front runners, Cammanche Falls may not want the going to be too fast but I couldn't go as far as laying it because of how they always seem to water every course nowadays, while Royal Pleasure 15/8 may do better when dropping down in class plus the trainers last winner was 85 days ago which means it looks such poor value I will look to lay it, Abolish has no form in England to work with and I'm not sure how good its form is so could be a danger but I will stick with the proven, Giogiobbo is a front runner but needs to improve time wise to be winning this race so I'm hoping that RATHBONE 8/1 can set the pace to the race and being my top rated it could hold on for the win but with a couple of hidden dangers stakes will be kept low.

Rathbone 9/1 1st +9pts 

Lay bets Cammanche Falls +1pt, Royal Pleasure +1pt 

Total +11pts 

Total on the day +7pts

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