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Showing posts with label Rathbone. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rathbone. Show all posts

Saturday, 17 June 2023

2:10 Chester Racing Tips (17th June)

CHESTER 2.10 – 

5f –Class 3 – 8 Runners With 4 front running types it should be a true run race and at this course a lot of races are won from the front, I'm not sure if Speedacus is capable of leading here from stall 3 while Ancient Times has got stall 10 also both need to improve time wise to win this race, I think the 3yo Absolutelyflawless 15/2 will be better when racing over further so might be worth laying if a single figure near the off. Vespasian is my 4th top rated and Lihou is 3rd top and are a few spots behind my top 2 ratings but is a front running type and stall 8 might not be ideal in the make-up of this race but could do enough to make the frame, Leodis Dream is that 2nd top rated horse and likes to track the leaders but could get squeezed out in the early stages from stall 7. My top rated is COPPER KNIGHT 9/2 who has its ideal conditions for the 1st time this year and its best rating recorded last year was over todays course and distance and it looks as though this race has been its target and has been prepared for this race so hopefully it can lead all the way from stall 4. 

Copper Knight 9/2 8th -1pt

Lay bet Absolutely Flawless +1pt 

Total 0pts

CHESTER 4.30 – 

6f – Class 4 – 10 Runners I can see 3 front running types and Cuban Breeze and Bezza's Lad from stalls 6 and 9 should make sure there's a fast early pace, if Follow Your Heart is a single figure price i would look to lay it as it either wants a longer distance or maybe some cut in the ground or maybe a bit of both while Ramon Di Loria finds this distance too far for it on fast ground. Ventura Express is my 4th top rated but I'm not sure if this turning track will suit it and from stall 5 its drawn between 2 fast starters so could get squeezed out, Roman Dragon is 3rd top using a course and distance rating from last year and from stall 2 it ought to be able to get a good position on the rails just behind the leaders, Ballyare is capable of recording a fast time but maybe not on good to firm ground at this level or at this distance. My money will be riding on TOUSSAROK 11/1 (EW) who is drawn in stall 4 and should be able to get away quickly and gain control of the all important rails position needed at this course, with its best ratings coming from Brighton and Goodwood it should be able to handle this track and at a double figure price it has to be given as an each way wager.

Toussarock 12/1 8th -2pts 

Total -2pts

YORK 5.25 – 

6f – Class 4 – 15 Runners In big fields here the draw favours those drawn low which wont help the cause of Abate, who is my joint 2nd top rated using a 2021 rating, completing its hattrick of wins but with only 1 other known front running type it might not be too much of a handicap and could possibly at least make the frame, I'm not sure if there's anything of value I can put forward as a lay but the betting might show me an opportunity but I will have to wait and see, Muscika is capable of running well, its my top rated using just this years ratings, and is my 4th top rated overall only rated 1lb higher than Rathbone in 5th top spot who from stall 3 could be the one to set the pace and if gifted an easy lead it could at least make the frame as its my top rated on just this years ratings, Showtime Mahomes is the other joint 2nd top rated using a Yarmouth rating from last year and is drawn in stall 1 which might be an advantage, Many A Star comes out in top spot using a 2021 rating recorded at Yarmouth that year and hasn't had many opportunities since then with ideal conditions. Its a tricky race and I will probably go with dutching 3 horses in this race with each way wagers, RATHBONE 22/1 who could lead all the way from stall 3 with very little competition for the early pacesetters role, SHOWTIME MAHOMES 14/1 who seems to like these courses without many if any undulations and MANY A STAR 20/1 who could go better than its form figures suggest because of the lack of ideal conditions and even then my stakes will be kept low.

Rathbone 22/1 7th -1pt 
Showtime Mahones 14/1 9th -1pt 
Many A Star 20/1 Unp -1pt

Total -3pts 

Total on the day -5pts

Friday, 19 May 2023

2:32 Thirsk Racing Tips (20th May)

Note: OK, I'm fed up with the going reports and it seems that anywhere could be hit with the odd heavy showers so I'm going to send an abridged version for some sprints so as not to waste my time and you will have to check that the going is good or better before you waste any money

THIRSK 2.32 

Papa Don't Preach 13/2 I will look to lay it as I think it needs some cut in the going so if the going is good or better I will lay it I will also lay A Pint Of Bear 10/1 if it becomes a single figure price may need the run for fitness and a longer distance might suit it better. LEODIS DREAM 9/1 is my top rated and likes to track the leaders before staying on the stronger nearing the finish so this race might well be run to suit its preferred racing tactics. 

Leodis Dream 20/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bets Papa Don't Preach +1pt, A Pint Of Bear +1pt

Total +1pt

THIRSK 3.42 

I can see 3 possible lays in this race Mojomaker who may need this run for fitness but this one if it comes down to a single figure price which I doubt but put it up just in case. Hiya Mate 8/1 hasn't produced anything worthwhile time wise and might prefer some cut in the ground… Bay Breeze 7/1 probably needs fast good to firm ground to show its best but I doubt it will be that fast a going. RATHBONE 8/1 is a front running type and its stall 10 draw could help its cause and hopefully it can lead all the way and get back to winning ways and hinted at a return to form when finishing 3rd last time out and the jockey has a 3-9 record when riding for the stable. 

Rathbone 8/1 7th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWMARKET 5.00 

Not sure there will be anything of value to lay in this race. Spring Bloom 4/1 recorded a very fast time at Windsor last year but that time is looking like a fluke result but just in case its not it might be worth having a covering bet on it but the price doesn't really look to be of value, its one of two known front running types in this race. ANCIENT TIMES 7/1 is my 2nd top rated and is the other front running type and could lead all the way and the jockey has a 29% win ratio when riding for the stable.

Ancient Times 7/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt

Friday, 26 August 2022

2:55 Thirsk Racing Tips (26th August)

THIRSK 2.55 

An eleven runner race with a couple of horses that have been known to lead before, as for any lays I will be looking to lay Good Earth 5/1 who can struggle to stay the distance in a fast run affair although it is my 4th top rated, Intrinsic Bond is my 3rd top rated and usually races in midfield before staying on at the finish, Music Society is my 2nd top rated but hasn't been in the best of form recently, my top rated is RATHBONE 16/1 who is also the one I expect to set the pace to this race and if leading could prove a hard nut to crack and hopefully the apprentices 7lb claim will swing even further in its favour.

Rathbone 18/1 9th -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt 

Friday, 12 August 2022

2:50 Ripon Racing Tips (13th August)

RIPON 2.50 

Class 2 race over 6 furlongs with 15 runners and one third of them have been known to lead before, as you expect its a very competitive looking race, Hyperfocus and Marks Choice look likely to do best of the front runners and the former could do enough from the front to make the frame, I cannot see anything of value to lay in this race as for finding the winner there is a few, Summerghand, Snash, Intrinsic Bond, Indian Creak Embour plus the 2 front runners mentioned, that could go well here and anyone of them could make the frame but I will be having a small wager on EMPEROR SPIRIT 8/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish. 

Emperor Spirit 8/1 7th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWMARKET 3.18 

Class 4 race over 6 furlongs with 7 runners, the early pace could be set by Come On Girl who has been running well on the AW tracks but I don't think this one is up to winning at this level and might be worth laying, Strike is another that looks better in lower class races but this one is capable of producing fast times, Verraux Eagle might prefer a longer trip so another possible lay, my money will be riding on *WENTWORTH FALLS 10/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and the trainer does quite well at this course. 

*NR

Lay bet Come On Girl +1pt 

Total +1pt 


NEWMARKET 4.28 

Class 2 race with a paltry 5 runners, Stone Of Destiny may struggle to stay the distance especially as my top rated is the likely leader in this race, Mum's Tipple may need further but if the early pace is really fast it could be a possible danger, Above and Ingra Tor both recorded their best speed ratings here but on the Rowley mile course but would need to improve a good few spots if RATHBONE 13/2 reproduces is best figures from either 2022 or 2021 where there is only 2lbs difference plus the apprentice jockey has a decent 16% win ratio on the stables older horses. 

Rathbone 9/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.50 

Class 6 race over 6 furlongs with 10 entrants, I can see 3 front running types in this race and another that could lead if nothing else wanted to wont have to lead here, but I think they will be setting the race up for something coming from off the pace although Portelet Bay who is my 2nd top rated could prove a danger if getting to the front from stall 9 but might have to use up a degree of its stamina/speed to get itself into the lead, I could look to lay, Prophecy, Secret Potion, *Mops Gem and *Tom Tulliver if of value to lay, Steelriver is my 3rd top rated using a 2020 rating but can be useful if on a going day but I will be relying on the top weight RED ALERT 10/1 with my money and a repeat of the rating it has recorded here this year would see it winning with a bit too spare.

Red Alert 10/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bets Prophecy +1pt

Total 0pts

Total on the day  -1pt

Thursday, 14 July 2022

7:17 Hamilton Racing Tips (15th July)

HAMILTON 7.17 

On paper this looks a classy race and with 2 known front runners it should be a true run race, I could look to lay two 3yo’s in this race for small stakes, Snazzy Jazzy 11/2 who doesn't seem to like the good to firm ground and Edward Cornelius 7/1 who is better over shorter distances and that is of course if they are value to lay, there are quite a few runners that could run well in this race so my stakes will be kept low but I will be taking a punt on RATHBONE 13/2 who is one of the known front runners and if getting to the front could prove hard to catch and the trainer has a decent 21% win ratio at this course. 

Rathbone 9/1 1st +9pts 

Lay bets Snazzy Jazzy +1pt, Edward Cornelius +1pt 

Total +11pts  

PONTEFRACT 8.54 

The early pace will most likely come from Raydmoor who can produce good times but not in this class of race but if allowed a soft lead it could possibly lead all the way but I somehow doubt it, there looks to be a couple more at the bottom of the handicap that might be outclassed, I am not sure what will win this race but I am hoping its between the 2nd and 4th in the handicap as the top weight Ghathanfar 9/4 looks a better horse over further and its win over this distance at York was a relatively slow run affair so maybe the best way to make money in this race is to lay it especially if its the favourite for the race as forecast.

Lay bet Ghathanfar +1pt 

Total +1pt 

Total on the day +12pts

Friday, 13 May 2022

2:55 Thirsk Racing Tips (14th May)

THIRSK 2.55

A field of 9 in this class 4 race with First Company the one most likely to set the pace unless something else decides to change its usual racing tactics but I doubt it can hold on for the win, if the going is good to firm then Ballintoy Harbour 10/1 could run well and might be worth an each way punt, Leodis Dream 15/2 has a time from Windsor last year that would put it in the mix and it usually likes to track the leaders, Havagomecca 7/1 is my 2nd top rated and is usually held up for a late run but ATLYAH 6/1 likes to sit just behind the leaders ready to pounce and comes out top on my figures, the trainers record of 0-7 at this course isn't great but the jockey is 2-4 when riding for the stable. 

Atlyah 6/1 1st +6pts 

Total +6pts

CHELMSFORD 3.45 

The betting will decide if there's any lays in this race but Sir Rodneyredblood 7/1, Harold Shand and Twilight Madness 5/1 are potential candidates, Toussarak is my 3rd top rated and usually runs on strongly at the finish, Crimson Sands 3/1 and City Walk 11/2 are both dropped in class to run in this race and could go well and on times the former could do best of the pair, my money will be riding on ARAIFJAN 15/2 who won in this class of race last time out but has been raised four pounds by the official handicapper, it is a versatile type when it comes to racing tactics and maybe in the make up of this race from stall 8 wont attempt to lead but could sit handily and stay on the stronger at the finish. 

Araifjan 16/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bet Toussarak +1pt 

Total 0pts

THIRSK 4.05 

A very competitive looking class 3 sprint with fourteen runners, Saluti might prefer a longer distance but would need to improve time wise if others run to their best, RATHBONE 11/2 is the one that I expect will set the pace to this race and is my joint 2nd top rated so could do enough to at least make the frame and if allowed the luxury of an easy lead could hold on for the win I'm not sure how good the 7lb claiming apprentice is but if worth the full 7lbs it comes out in top spot, Tinto is my original top rated but hasn't been in the best of form recently the trainer has poorish single figure win ratio at this course but the jockey has a decent 17% win ratio on the stables older horses, Music Society starts off as joint 2nd top but drops to 3rd top spot but the jockeys poor 1-20 win ratio for the stable is a bit off-putting but it will be staying on at the finish but maybe too late for the win but could make the frame. 

Rathbone 9/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

DONCASTER 8.40 

Let me stay from the start this isn't really a race to be betting in too heavily in but PRINCE OF BEL LIR 4/1 won last time out over this distance at Yarmouth 18 days ago which is a reasonably flat course so this course should also suit it and the rating it recorded in that race puts it well clear of anything else I've got a rating for in this race and could lead all the way here and follow up that Yarmouth win, yes it is raised in class from a 5 to a 4 but this 4yo ought to be able to win at this slightly higher class, I don't expect it will be anything but the favourite for this race I'm just hoping its not too short a price.

Prince Of Bel Lir 4/1 +4pts 

Total +4pts

Total on the day +9pts

Friday, 29 April 2022

1:15 Newmarket Racing Tips (30th April)

NEWMARKET 1.15 

A nice looking Listed race with seven runners, Umm Kulthum may not want the going to be too fast, Talabaat may need further but hasn't any form in this country while Tenaya Canyon may find the distance too far if there's a fast early pace which might be set by the 3yo Flotus 10/11 who is forecast to be the hot favourite, I don't know if you've heard this saying but I was told you never back 3yo’s against their elder until June so maybe its worth laying this one so I will take the risk and back GALE FORCE MAYA 4/1 who won last time out and has been beaten very narrowly in a photograph at this level so could go well here and is in good form and has good trainer/jockey stats. 

Gale Force Maya 4/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

THIRSK 1.30 

A biggish field of 15 for this class 4 handicap with a couple of known front runners in Ahlawi and Ornate which is always useful but I doubt if either can hold on for the win but they could do enough to make the frame, the only one I can see of value to lay is Brazen Bolt 5/1 who may need further to show its best form and the jockeys 1-17 on the stables older horses makes me think they have a future target in mind, as for the winner I will be pinning my hopes on AFTER JOHN 6/1 who has made the frame in its last 2 runs and could go one better here and should have the fast pace to aim at that it seems to like. 

After John 6/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

THIRSK 2.45 

A class 3 dash with at least 4 runners that like to lead, looking at the tissue prices I might be able to lay both Saluti 4/1 who might be better over a longer distance and Running Wild who might be outclassed at this level and has poor trainer/jockey stats and it could well be the former's stablemate LEODIS DREAM 10/1 (EW) who wins this race if the 7lb claiming apprentice is worth his claim, it has won before after a break from racing but its not a race to betting too heavily in but I am hoping its an each way price. 

Leodis Dream 22/1 Unp -2pts 

Total -2pts 

NEWMARKET 3.00 

To be honest this is a weak race for a Group 1 race, I will have to wait until I see the betting for any other lays but I am looking to lay Twilight Calls who does seem on an upward curve but this is a big step up from its win in a class 3 handicap that it won last time out and might be shorter in price because of that win and it is also because its trained by a top class trainer, it is forecast to be the 5/2 favourite on the early tissue prices, I will be backing the horse with the highest class proven form and that is TIS MARVELLOUS 5/1 who has been known to lead before and there doesn't appear to be much other early speedsters in the race so could lead all the way and has been known to win when coming back after a break before but the trainers 0-14 at this course is a little off putting so my stakes will be kept low. 

Tis Marvellous 10/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Twillight Calls +1pt 

Total 0pts

DONCASTER 6.30 

Just 6 runners for this class 2 race which has two known front runners, Cammanche Falls may not want the going to be too fast but I couldn't go as far as laying it because of how they always seem to water every course nowadays, while Royal Pleasure 15/8 may do better when dropping down in class plus the trainers last winner was 85 days ago which means it looks such poor value I will look to lay it, Abolish has no form in England to work with and I'm not sure how good its form is so could be a danger but I will stick with the proven, Giogiobbo is a front runner but needs to improve time wise to be winning this race so I'm hoping that RATHBONE 8/1 can set the pace to the race and being my top rated it could hold on for the win but with a couple of hidden dangers stakes will be kept low.

Rathbone 9/1 1st +9pts 

Lay bets Cammanche Falls +1pt, Royal Pleasure +1pt 

Total +11pts 

Total on the day +7pts

Thursday, 26 August 2021

2:40 Thirsk Racing Tips (27th August)

THIRSK 2.40 

A 15 runner race with a couple of known front runners, if the going is good to firm I will have a few to lay but I somehow doubt it will dry out that much but hopefully the going will be at least good if not then there won't be any bets, it looks quite a competitive race which I would expect for a class 3 race, the 3yo Just Frank is a possible pacesetter and could go well but hasn't any form on good or good to firm ground, Dazzling Dan, Chairmanoftheboard and Blackheath all have times that could see them make the frame but I am hoping that RATHBONE 5/1 can get away quickly and if getting to the front it could lead all the way. 

Rathbone 5/1 9th -1pt 

Total -1pt

GOODWOOD 4.53 

There is 11 runners but no known front running types amongst them which means my stakes will be kept low, the betting will tell if there is anything worth laying but it doesn't look very promising, I'm Watching You is my 3rd top rated horse but the trainer is 0-17 in the last 2 weeks which doesn't fill me with confidence, Amathus comes out 2nd best on overall figures but top rated on just 2021 times, my money will be riding on EPSOM FAITHFUL 4/1 who finished 2nd last time out on the AW and if it can reproduce its best time from 2020 at Windsor it would be winning a shade cosily. 

Epsom Faithful 4/1 1st +4pts 

Total +4pts

GOODWOOD 7.23 

An 8 runner race with a couple of front runners in Green Door and Liberty Bay and the latter is my 3rd top rated and being a 3yo it could still improve and would need to to win this race but could do enough to make the frame, Attys Edge comes out 2nd best using a time from 2020 but its 2021 is only 1lb below Liberty Bay’s 2021 time, my top rated is GLAMOROUS FORCE 3/1 who’s best time came at Bath and a repeat of that time would see it winning a shade cosily but the trainer is 0-17 in the last 2 weeks although its only 3 weeks since their last win but it does temper my bet so only a small win. 

Glamorous Force 3/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

HAMILTON 7.40

Another 8 runner race with just one known front runner amongst them, there is a few who race as though further would suit them better and this race might not be run to suit them and the betting will guide me to which ones to lay, Melody King comes out in 3rd top spot and will be trying to stay on strongly at the finish, sitting in 2nd top spot is Iris Dancer who is another that will be trying to stay on at the business end of the race but maybe none of them will be able to catch SHESADABBER 12/1 (EW) who could be allowed an easy lead here and being my top rated it will be carrying my money in this race and at the double figure price it has to be an each way bet.

Shesadabber 12/1 7th -2pts

Total on the day 0pts

Thursday, 15 July 2021

3:10 Nottinham Racing Tips (16th July)

NOTTINGHAM 3.10 

Not the best of the races and any stakes will be kept low and I cannot find anything of value, (under 10/1) to lay, as for finding the winner I will be going with 3 each way wagers, CASE KEY 12/1 is my top rated and also one of 2 known front running types in the race but that is using a 2020 time and its 3 runs this year have been relatively poor, QUEEN OF BURGUNDY hasn't been in great form in recent runs but is my 2nd top rated but the trainer is 0-9 for the last 2 weeks and the jockeys 0-4 record doesn't inspire confidence but could go well , GLENAMOY LAD is my 3rd top rated and this one has the best trainer/jockey stats but once again its not been in great form lately but has only ran once so far this year. 
Case Key 12/1 +12pts
Glenamoy Lad 16/1 3rd -1pt 
Queen Of Burgundy 9/4 4th -1pt 

Total +10pts

HAMILTON 6.55 

There's 8 runners in this race but no known pacesetters amongst them which always makes analysis much much harder, I cannot find anything of value to lay and having a win bet has more risks than usual but I will be taking a punt by backing VENTURA FLAME 7/2 who is my top rated but it is a hold up type so will need to be alert to the dangers as the front runners might not fade nearing the finish if there's a slow early pace but the jockey does have a decent 18% win ratio for the stable and the trainers has had a few winners in the last 2 weeks. 

Ventura Flame 9/2 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

HAMILTON 7.30 

Half of the 12 runners in this race have been known to lead before but they will hopefully be setting the race up for a strong finisher, I won't be proposing any lays in this race as there is nothing of value to lay, Mr Wagyu 7/2 is the favourite but its wins have been in lower class races than todays and the handicapper may have caught up with it so I will look to lay it along with Music Society 9/1 as long as it remains in a single figure price, I will be putting my faith in RATHBONE 4/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish, it has good trainer stats and the 7lb claiming apprentice has a good 17% win ratio for the stable and that could tilt things in its favour.

Rathbone 6/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWMARKET 8.20 

Only 6 runners for this class 3 race and no known front runners amongst them, Miss Jingles may need this run for fitness and maybe worth laying, its not a race to be betting in too heavily but I will be having a wager on LOVELY BREEZE 3/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and has good trainer/jockey stats and its best time was recorded this year over this course and distance. 

Lovely Breeze 3/1 2nd -1pt 

Total on the day +8pts

Tuesday, 29 June 2021

3:55 Thirsk Racing Tips (30th June)

THIRSK 3.55 

With 11 runners I'm surprised there isn't at least one known pacesetter in their midst plus I cannot find anything of value to put up as a lay, George Bowen is my 3rd top rated using a time from Hamilton recorded this year, my 2nd top rated is MANIGORDO 10/1 who is usually found to be running on in the closing stages so it will be hoping there is at least a decent early pace and the jockey has a 15% win rate on this stables older horses, my top rated is RATHBONE 7/2 and this one recorded its best time this year over this c/d and if the apprentice is worth the 7lb claim then it would help its cause greatly but I will be backing them both just in case the apprentice, who is 0-4 for today's stable, rides a poor race. 

Rathbone 5/1 +5pts 
Manigordo 10/1 7th -1pt 

Total +4pts

MUSSELBURGH 4.35 

A 10 runner race where half the field have been known to lead before but I think they will be setting the race up for something coming from off the pace but maybe Abel Handy could do best of those racing from the front, Never Bark my 4th top rated and Sound Of Iona who is my 3rd top rated and is usually held up for a late run so this race may be run to suit its style, both recorded their best times this year actually add my 2nd top rated Good Luck Fox into that list but this one recorded its best time this year over this c/d but I will be siding with NORTH WIND 7/2 who usually runs on strongly at the finish over this distance after tracking the leaders so this race will be right up its street. 

North Wind 5/1 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt

KEMPTON 8.35 

I would like to lay *Al Asef if under 5/1 who I think struggles to stay the distance if there's a fast early pace but I am not sure what will lead or how fast a pace will be set, anything else with a negative against its name I think will all be double figures prices, I'm going with backing 2 horses in this race, LILKIAN 14/1 comes out 2nd top rated using its best time from Chelmsford and is also 2nd best on recent, 2020/21, c/d times but I do have LETHAL ANGEL 10/1 rated 2lbs higher who usually stays on strongly at the finish and this ones best time also comes from Chelmsford but that was this year which is a positive so two each way bets looks the way to go.

*NR

Lilkian 20/1 5th -2pts 
Lethal Angel 10/1 8TH -2pts 

Total on the day -1pt