A ten runner race with three known front running types amongst them, I will start off with Hey Ho Lets Go 11/4 who won last time out but may be out of its depth again here as every time its raised in class if falters and has to drop down in grade to win again so I will look to lay this one as i also think it will be a shorter price than its chance merits, of the known front running types Lethal Blast looks best as its my 4th top rated and could do enough to make the frame but maybe not enough to win the race, Lilkian and Lothian have only 1lb between them being my 3rd and 2nd top rated horses in this race, the former is being ridden by a 7lb claiming apprentice which moves it into 2nd top spot, my top rated is BIG BARD 15/2 who ran in a higher class race on its first run of this year 17 days ago, I assume to get it race fit, so could be primed to win this race but stall 9 isn't ideal so I will also have a bet on LILKIAN 5/1 who is only 2lbs off top spot with the apprentices 7lb claim.
Lilkian 5/1 1st +5pts
Big Bard 10/17th -1pt
Lay bet Hey let's Go +1pt
Total +5pts
NEWCASTLE 8.05
A field of 13 for this race but I have 6 of them as having no chance but I expect 5 of them to be double figure prices so not of value to lay unless your a big risk taker but I do have Truth In Jest 13/2 as one of those 6 but is forecast to be in single figures, its one c/d run resulted in a slow time for it and its best rating on turf wouldn't be enough for it to win this race, Power Point 8/1 won last time out on turf on a good to soft ground so this surface might be too fast for it and i also think a longer distance would suit better especially on this surface, the top pair in the handicap, Tributo and Thaki are my 4th and 5th top rated but they are also the only known front running types in this race so one or the other could make the frame if allowed an easy lead, Singe Anglais usually tracks the leaders or is held up and then tries to stay on at the finish and comes out 3rd best on my figures, sitting in 2nd top spot is Ginato who likes to race in the middle of the pack, my money will be riding on WATER OF LEITH 11/2 who recorded a course and distance time earlier this year that would see it winning this race with a bit in hand.
Water Of Leigh 7/1 6th -1pt
Lay bet Truth In Jest +1pt
Total 0pts
Total on the day +5pts
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