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Tuesday 15 November 2022

1:35 Southwell Racing Tips (16th November)


A nice looking class 3 race with 8 runners (I hope they all take part) and 3 horses known to have led before. I think Spring Bloom, Media Guest and Captains Bar all need a longer distance to show their true form but I'm doubting any will be short enough to be value to lay. Lord Riddiford 7/2 a possible pacesetter is my 5th top rated but looks too short a price in my opinion, The Thin Blue Line 15/2 and Lipsink 4/1 are my 4th and 3rd top rated horses and both will be trying to stay on at the finish but I think maybe too late to win this race as my top 2 ratings are both possible pacesetters but either could make the frame. Khabib 4/1 is my 2nd top rated but there is only 2lbs between my 4th and 2nd top rated horses but sitting in top spot is BEDFORD FLYER 11/2 but this ones trainer hasn't been in good form lately while the jockey booking looks a positive with a 25% win ratio on the stables older horses but its not a race where I will be betting very heavily in. 

Bedford Flyer 10/1 1st +10pts 

Total +10pts


This class 2 race, even with just 9 runners, is very hard to analyse, mainly because there's not a lot of data to work with for some of the horses. Firstly there doesn't look to be anything that I could confidently put forward to lay, so secondly we move on to the potential winner of the race. Came From The Dark recorded decent rating on turf over this distance, Fine Wine needs to improve time wise but could lead. Papa Don't Preach won the only time it ran on this surface at Wolverhampton. Night On Earth is my 2nd top rated on just course and distance ratings. I'm not sure why Alligator Alley is forecast to be the favourite but it is top rated just using this years distance ratings, Silky Wilkie comes out top rated but using a time recorded on good to firm going on turf, Digital is top rated on just course and distance times, Count D’Orsay has a decent rating from 2021 over this course and distance, Intervention may need a longer distance but I expect it will be an outsider. If pushed I would side with the 3yo Silkie Wilkie 9/1 with a small each way bet but this race is probably best left alone. 

No bet. 


With the cutaway where the 2 courses meet means that the draw isn't as biased as it would be without it, the early pace in this race could well be set by Holbache in stall 3 and with an easy lead it could do enough to make the frame but saying that I wouldn't back it each way just in case that happens. I'm not sure there's anything in this race of value that I could put forward as a lay bet, I've got joint 3rd top rated horses in Bobby On The Beat 16/1 and Coolagh Magic 9/2 but the latter's rating came from Lingfield and not at this course and distance so the price looks way too short and I'm not sure I could back the former each way. Starter For Ten 12/1 is my 2nd top rated and usually stays on at the finish over this distance and might be worth looking at if its an each way price. My money will be riding on BIG BARD 10/1 (EW) who usually likes to track the leaders before staying on the stronger at the finish and in the make-up of this race from stall 4 it could get a good tow along the rails ready to pounce in the home straight and at a double figure price it has to be an each way bet.

Big Bard 10/1 3rd +1pt

Total +1pt

Total on the day +11pts

1 comment:

goldenballs said...

Nice winner and places today