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Tuesday 6 December 2022

1:25 Lingfield Racing Tips (7th December)


MOHI this one ran from the front on the Tapeta surface but would need to improve time wise for the change of surfaces to win this race. 

EMPEROR SPIRIT another possible pacesetter and this one could be the one to set the pace to this race and ought to be able to do enough from the front to make the frame.

HIGH VELOCITY is my fourth top rated and usually either tracks the leaders or races in midfield and could stay on near the finish and make the frame. 

TOTAL COMMITMENT has been knocking on the door recently and has been found a good winning opportunity here where the trainer has a 19% win ratio with their older horses.

MAMILLIUS has won 3 times at an AW course but needs to improve time wise on its best rating over this course and distance recorded in 2021 and may prefer a longer trip. 

TYGER BAY has recorded a good rating but all of its wins have come in lower class races but could make the frame but its been over 3 months since the stable had a winner. 

BE PREPARED has only ran 4 times on an artificial surface but hasn't even made the frame in any of them but may prefer the Tapeta of need a longer distance or maybe both. 

SERGEANT TIBBS hasn't won on an artificial surface from 7 races and only made the frame once although it hasn't run on this surface before but may need further to shine. 

FLYING SECRET is still a maiden after 8 runs with just a slow time over this distance and surface at Kempton and may need further to show its best. 

SUMMARY: I think that Emperor Spirit will set the pace to this race and could do enough to make the frame, it might even win if others falter, Tyger Bay might be worth laying for the win part as it might be outclassed at this level while both Sergeant Tibbs and Flying Secret might prefer a longer trip and might be worth laying if of value to do so. My money in this sprint will be riding on TOTAL COMMITMENT 4/1 from stall 6 who usually tracks the leaders before staying on the stronger at the finish and with the early pace being in the 2 stalls to its left it should get a good tow into the race so get a good position from which to attack in the home straight.

Total Commitment 4/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets Tyger Bay -7.5pts, Flying Secret +1pt

Total on the day -7.5pts

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