1:25 Lingfield Racing Tips (7th December)

LINGFIELD 1.25 

MOHI this one ran from the front on the Tapeta surface but would need to improve time wise for the change of surfaces to win this race. 

EMPEROR SPIRIT another possible pacesetter and this one could be the one to set the pace to this race and ought to be able to do enough from the front to make the frame.

HIGH VELOCITY is my fourth top rated and usually either tracks the leaders or races in midfield and could stay on near the finish and make the frame. 

TOTAL COMMITMENT has been knocking on the door recently and has been found a good winning opportunity here where the trainer has a 19% win ratio with their older horses.

MAMILLIUS has won 3 times at an AW course but needs to improve time wise on its best rating over this course and distance recorded in 2021 and may prefer a longer trip. 

TYGER BAY has recorded a good rating but all of its wins have come in lower class races but could make the frame but its been over 3 months since the stable had a winner. 

BE PREPARED has only ran 4 times on an artificial surface but hasn't even made the frame in any of them but may prefer the Tapeta of need a longer distance or maybe both. 

SERGEANT TIBBS hasn't won on an artificial surface from 7 races and only made the frame once although it hasn't run on this surface before but may need further to shine. 

FLYING SECRET is still a maiden after 8 runs with just a slow time over this distance and surface at Kempton and may need further to show its best. 

SUMMARY: I think that Emperor Spirit will set the pace to this race and could do enough to make the frame, it might even win if others falter, Tyger Bay might be worth laying for the win part as it might be outclassed at this level while both Sergeant Tibbs and Flying Secret might prefer a longer trip and might be worth laying if of value to do so. My money in this sprint will be riding on TOTAL COMMITMENT 4/1 from stall 6 who usually tracks the leaders before staying on the stronger at the finish and with the early pace being in the 2 stalls to its left it should get a good tow into the race so get a good position from which to attack in the home straight.

Total Commitment 4/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets Tyger Bay -7.5pts, Flying Secret +1pt

Total on the day -7.5pts

7:00 Chelmsford Racing Tips (8th October)

CHELMSFORD 7.00 

A class 4 race which isn't the best for its grade, the early pace could well be set by ARAMIS GREY 9/2 and being my 3rd top rated using a 2021 rating it could do enough from the front to at least make the frame and could even win the race if others falter, HELLO ME 12/1 comes out in top spot for just this years course and distance ratings and comes out 2nd best on overall figures so has to be worth an each way interest, TOTAL COMMITMENT 20/1 hasn't any form over this course to work with but its best 2021 time from Lingfield would see it win by a whisker and I cannot let it run without some money on it at the price, as all 3 did their best last year I'm not able to split them any further but I also have four other horses that I cannot discount completely the stakes for this race will be kept to a minimum and it might even be a race to leave well alone. 

Aramis Grey 9/2 1st +4.5pts

Total Commintement 20/1 2nd -1pts

Hello Me 12/1 7th -1pt 

Total +2.5pts

CHELMSFORD 7.30 Div I

What a poor race with only the top four in the handicap having run fast enough to register on my figures, Shamshon 9/1 would at some point in the past have eaten this lot alive but this 11yo seems to be on the decline but could possibly make the frame if able to reproduce its best 2021 rating, Babe Alicious 9/4 usually stays on strongly at the finish and with no known front runners in this race it might not be run to suit its racing style and therefore doesn't look value at the price, Mr Fayez 6/1 would have every chance using its best figure from 2021 over this course and distance but its still a maiden after 17 starts which is a bit off-putting, so my money will be riding on FLAVIUS TITUS 9/4 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish but once again the question is, will the race be run to suit it, I cannot answer that question so once again low stakes are called for. 

Flavius Titus 9/4 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

CHELMSFORD 8.00 Div II

Division 2 isn't any better and I will be very surprised if the winner didn't come from the top 5 in the handicap, Pretty Shiftwell 8/1 can find this distance too far for it but once again with no confirmed front running type in the race it might not get to the front soon enough for the win, Amalfi Gem 5/2 and Jumira Bridge 9/1 come out in joint 3rd top position so either could make the frame, Griggy 11/8 has been in tremendous form recently winning its last 2 races and could complete the hat trick here but I expect it to be the short priced favourite and therefore not of value to back so instead I will take a punt and go with backing COMPANY MINX 9/1 (EW) it looks the value call in the race and hoping it will be an each way price as a form of insurance with the apprentice jockey being 1 from 1 for the stable i hope he can make it 2 from 2.

Company Minx 10/1 3rd +1pt

Total +1pt 

Total on the day +2.5pts

3:05 Ayr Racing Tips (12th July)

AYR 3.05 

Quite a poor race even for class 6 standards, I will look to lay both Sam's Call 10/3 who might find this distance a little bit too far for it and the trainers 0-3 record at this course doesn't inspire confidence in its chances of winning plus its still a maiden after 6 runs and the 3yo Avior Star 8/1 who has run 14 times but hasn't won a race as of yet and I think it won't improve till tried over a longer distance, Kolossus is my 3rd top rated in fact there is only 3 runners with a time recorded on my graphs and could make the frame from the front it would need to improve time wise but could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead, I have joint top rated horses and Gigis Beach is one of them but hasn't won on turf before from 5 attempts, it has faded over 7 furlongs so this trip might suit it but I will be putting my faith in *GLENIFFER 5/2 who recorded its best time this year over this course and distance and the jockey has a decent 19% win ratio for the stable. 

*NR

Lay bets Sam's Call +1pt, Avior Star +1p

Total +2pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.55 

For a 13 runner class 5 race this one looks very competitive, I will look to lay Al Asef 7/2 who I think might have been flattered when it won last time out in a relatively slow run race and may be a better prospect over a longer trip and with 3, decent for this class of race, front runners especially Afaifjan and Brazen Belle who have competitive times, Storm Over, Tathmeen, Lilklan and Puchita are others that also have a competitive time and any of them could run well but I hope they are only competing for the two minor places as my money will be riding on the 3yo WATER OF LEITH 9/1 who has a time recorded in 2020 that would see it winning a shade cosily but I do have to admit it hasn't been in great form lately but this is its first run over this c/d this year and I am hoping that will rejuvenate it. 

Water Of Leith 9/1 3rd -1pt 

Al Asef +1pt

0pts

LINGFIELD 7.05 

A field of 8 runners but I'm not sure I can anything worthwhile to back each way in this race while I also cannot find anything worthwhile to lay, the early pace will I expect set by Spirit Of May and/or Mohareb but both of them have their best times recorded at a different course but both on this surface but both could make the frame if taking to this course, Treacherous, using a Kempton time, and Newyorkstateofmind, recorded over this course and distance, have times that make them competitive and they could make the frame but I will be trusting my money on TOTAL COMMITMENT 9/2 who likes to track the leaders and being drawn in stall one it should be able to get a good early position from which to attack in the later stages of the race and the trainer does like to have winners at this course.

Total Commitment 9/2 3rd -1pt 

Total on the day +1pt

2:20 Kempton Racing Tips (5th April)

KEMPTON 2.20 

Only 5 runners but luckily there's a couple of known front running types, Top Breeze could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead but I doubt Lihou will allow that to happen, Blue De Vega may be better over a longer trip so will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late to win this race, Han Solo Berger would need to improve time wise to win this race so I will be backing ROYAL BIRTH 11/2 who can be held up or track the leaders and this race could be run to suit it, so at the price looks the value call for this race.

Royal Birth 7/1 1st +7pts (Betair sp 9.43)

Total +7pts 

REDCAR 3.25 

I'm hoping the going is good to firm as forecast, firstly I will lay (Intrinsic) who I think will be better over a longer distance, there's a few horses out of form who i could lay but they are all big prices, Redrosezorro could go well here and being a possible pacesetter it could do enough to make the frame, others that have some figures that would make them competitive, Woven, Embour, Wentworth Falls and Fortimour, Gale Force Max has a time from 2019 that would give it a chance here but i am hoping another possible pacesetter, BOSSIPOP 18/1 (EW), can get to the front and then prove hard to catch and the jockey has a 15% win ratio on the stables older horses, so at the price I have to go with an each way bet. 

Bossipop 18/1 Unp -2pts 

Lay bet Intrinsic +1pt

Total -1pt

KEMPTON 5.10 

A field of 7 here with just Desert Safari known as a front runner but I doubt it can lead and hod on for the win, Lord Rapscallion may need further to shine, Lexington Dash will be running on but I'm not sure what to think about its chances of winning but I will go with the proven, Fresh and Jonah James could go well if reproducing their best ratings, Treacherous comes out top rated on its best time from 2020 but it is only good enough for 2nd top spot overall so I’ll be backing TOTAL COMMITMENT 7/1 who is only 3rd best on recent, 2020/21, c/d times but its best time from this surface at Lingfield makes it my top rated and it usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on the strongest at the business end of the race.

Total Commitment 7/1 3rd -1pt 

Total on the day +5pts