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Monday 5 December 2022

6:20 Southwell Racing Tips (6th December)


An 11 runner class 6 sprint with just 2 front running types Sir Rodneyredblood is one of them but sits just outside my top 4 ratings so I doubt it can hold on for the win but never say never, Carlton and Co 5/1 is still a maiden after 8 runs but has made the frame 3 times but would need to improve on its best course and distance rating to win this race. Dark Shot my 4th top rated won the time before its last run which was a poor effort and likes to track the leaders, Show Me A Sunset who usually races in midfield before staying on at the finish is my 3rd top rated with Sir Gregory sitting in 2nd top spot, RATTLING 5/2 has never run at this course but has won 3 times on this surface at Wolverhampton and its the other possible pacesetter and from stall 2 it should be able to gain control of the rails and once hitting the front it ought to prove too hard to catch. 

Rattling 6/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 


This division by far looks the better race on paper but with only Pepsi Cat having been known to lead it might not be the fastest of races, Brazen Idol 3/1 has been in good form lately but its win at Wolverhampton was a slow time and it might be a better prospect on the Polytrack surface so might be worth risking a lay on it, especially if it is to the fore in the betting. Kath's Toyboy likes to track the leaders and is my 3rd top rated, Starsong is my 2nd top rated on times from either Wolverhampton or Newcastle and also on just course and distance ratings and that also applies to my top rated horse as it comes out in top spot on both sets of figures,CAPTAIN VALLO 4/1 who won nicely when I backed it last time out and has been found the ideal opportunity to follow up here. 

Captain Vallo 4/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bet brazen Idol +1pt 

Total 0pts


What should be a nice class 3 dash only spoilt by having half of the 10 runner field being 3yo’s who could still improve with experience, there are 3 known front running types in the race which always helps with analysing the race. Of the 3 front running types, Papa Dont Preach, Mustaffiz and Khabib the latter could be the one to do best of them as its my 4th top rated, if Dusky Prince 10/1 is a single figure price near the off its one that I would look to lay as it might be outclassed at this level, I think that Silky Wilkie 4/1 is a better horse over a longer distance and is only 3rd top rated on course and distance times and has only a slow time recorded on this Tapeta surface at Newcastle so might be worth the risk to lay it if the early tissue prices are to be believed. Stone Of Destiny is my 3rd top rated with So Smart sitting in 2nd top spot although this ones figures were recorded in lower class races and hasnt won from 5 previous runs on an artificial surface. My money will be riding on ALLIGATOR ALLEY 11/4 who has had 5 runs on an artificial surface (AW) and has been placed in 3 of them and this looks an ideal opportunity for it to register its 1st AW win, since the new surface was laid here the trainer has had a 19% win ration and the jockey an 18% win ratio and has been running in higher class races lately so this drop in class might be the catalyst to it getting rid of its AW maiden tag.

Alligator Alley 11/4 1st +2.75pts

Total +2.75pts 

Total on the day +1.75pts

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