A class six, five furlong dash with eleven runners but not one of them appears to be a natural front running type but I am pretty sure something, probably a horse drawn near to the inside rails, will attempt to lead all the way and I'm hoping that horse might be Billy Dylan in stall 3 who is my top rated using a 2021 rating but has been a fair bit below that level this year, it has poor trainer/jockey stats but if allowed to bowl along in front could do enough to win this race or at least make the frame. Man On A Mission 3/1 isn't well drawn in stall 9 but will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late for the win so maybe one for the lay’s list especially at the price, Glorious Charmer also looks to want further to show its best, but its rating from Southwell will be enough for me not to add to my lays list, and the same applies to Elf Rising 6/1 but this last one being a three year old I would only lay to a smaller stake. Nellie French could make the frame again here but I cant see why it should suddenly find enough to win this race. Glorious Charmer is 3rd best using Southwell's ratings with Toplight in 2nd spot and Man On A Mission in top spot, on other Tapeta ratings for this year only ive got Toplight in top spot, Glorious Charmer in 2nd top spot and Billy Dylan in 3rd top spot, on overall Tapeta figures ive got Toplight in 2nd spot with Billy Dylan in top spot. I cannot let Toplight run without some sort of bet on it but this one can be slowly away which handicaps its chances of winning.
CONCLUSION: I will go with backing two horses in this race, TOPLIGHT 3/1 who would probably be the sole bet in the race if I knew for sure it would get away on level terms but even then it still records decent ratings for the class of race the other being BILLY DYLAN 14/1 (EW) who could be allowed an easy lead in this race and if getting to the front could prove hard to catch but the trainers stats here are poor as are the jockeys stats when riding for the stable but if of value to do so I would back this one each way., so it looks like two small bets.
Topflight 7/2 8th -1pt
Billy Dylan 14/1 6th -1pt
Lay bets Man On A Mission -2pts, Glorious Charmer +1pt
Total on the day -3pts
No comments:
Post a Comment