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Thursday 19 January 2023

12:50 Southwell Racing Tips (20th January)


This is one of those lowly stakes races where the highest official handicap rating fifty and in this race there's only one horse rated that highly and that is USTATH 11/2 who hasn't shown anything of note recently but as its the only known front running type in this race it could bounce back to form so has to carry some of my money just in case it leads all the way and is my top rated but in such a poor race my stakes will be kept low. I don't think its a race where its advisable to be laying anything but i will be backing MUTABAAHY 10/1 in this race as it hasn't any course and distance form to its name but is my top rated using a time it recorded in 2021 at Wolverhampton, so I will covering the angle of front running type and those with ratings from different courses by backing them both. 

Ustath 11/2 2nd -1pt 
Mutabaahy 10/1 6th -1pt 

Total -2pts 


Most of the 9 runners have the same racing style of tracking the leaders but none of the runners are natural front running types which always makes analysis difficult, I can also see a trio of horses, Bellagio Man, Maritimes Rules and Motawaazy who race as though they would do better over further so unless one of them decides to set a decent early gallop the race might not be run to suit them. Primos Comet has a fast time to its name but its last win on an AW track was back in 2019, Modular Magic is top rated using just course and distance ratings and might be a short price because of finishing 2nd last time out in a slow run affair. Bert Kibbler could go well here and won its last 2 races but they were over a year ago so not sure if it will be fit enough to do itself justice but if fully fit it could at least make the frame. My money will be riding on DUSKY PRINCE 9/1 who finished 3rd last time out and with the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim becomes my top rated so could get back to winning ways here. 

Dusky Prince 10/1 2nd -1pt

Total -1pt


Another race with 9 runners but at at least there is 1 known front running type in this race. Delta Romeo hasn't any form in England to work with so not sure exactly what to expect but I think it might be a better prospect when racing over a longer distance but I'm not confident enough to put it forward as a lay . The early pace could be set by Gowanbuster but has only slow times to its name since 2021 but did finish 2nd last time out so is in good form. I think any bet in this race will be risky but maybe a small punt on ORIENTAL LILLY 10/1 (EW) might pay dividends but also leaving the race alone wouldn't be a bad decision but if a double figure price it might be worth an each way punt. 

Oriental Lilly 12/1 5th -2pts 

Total -2pts

Total on the day -5pts

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