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Thursday 12 January 2023

3:35 Newcastle Racing Tips (12th January)


A class five dash with just 7 runners and 2 known front running types amongst them Another Angel is one of them but has been in woeful form recently and I expect it will be one of the outsiders in the betting so too big to be of value to lay but I could lay Idoapologise if its a single figure price as it needs to improve time wise and further seems to suit it better as its never won over today's distance. Ruggles has one good rating over this course and distance but that rating might have been a bit of a fluke maybe where it got towed along in a fast run race and a possible lay if of value to do so. Kraken Power has only 1 win to its name from 31 races and I'm not sure if it prefers a longer distance or a different surface to show its best so might be one of value to lay, I'm not sure what to expect from Wee Fat Mac so I can't back or lay this one. As for the winner of this race I'm looking towards MODULAR MAGIC 5/1 who is my 2nd top rated horse and also the other known front running type and with an easy lead it could lead all the way as I've rated it just 1lb below INDIAN SOUNDS 5/1 who seems to like tracking the leaders before staying on strongly nearing the finish and they both finished 4th last time out indicating a return to form was imminent. 

Modular Magic 5/1 2nd -1pt 
Indian Sound 5/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bet Kraken Power -2.75pts, Idoapologise +1pt 

Total -3.75pts


I hope all 8 runners take part in case I find an each way wager in the field, I will be looking to lay Suzi's Connoisseur if its a single figure price as it hasn't won a race since 2019 and it might need this run for fitness as its last run was just over a year ago. Dark Design looks the most likely one to set the pace to this race and as always if its allowed an easy lead it could prove very dangerous and could even win the race but ratings wise it needs to improve a good few spots, Company Minx is my 2nd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders so could go well and might be worthwhile looking at an each way bet. My money will be riding on SHAMSHON 3/1 as its my top rated and the trainer has a 25% win ratio in apprentice jockey races and can either be held up or track the leaders either way it should be staying on at the finish. 

Shamshon 3/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 


A nice class 3 race over the minimum distance and as usual at this level a poor turnout of just 6 runners where 4 of them have been known to lead before so it should be a fast run race for the class. Papa Don't Preach and Double Dealing would both need to improve time wise to win this race and they are the 2 that are not known to front run so I doubt either will get into the race. Harb is my 4th top rated and needs to improve on the clock to win here, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses in Impeach and Atiyah but my top rated horse MISS NAY NEVER 8/11 has the stall 1 draw and I expect it to get away smartly and gain control on the rails and then prove too hard to catch in the closing stages its won its last 2 races and has been found the ideal opportunity to complete the hattrick in this race and its a course where the trainer has a 30% win ratio with their older horses and the jockeys strike rate is 18% when riding for the stable.

Miss Nay Never 5/4 1st +1.25pts

Total +1.25pts

Total on the day -3.5pts

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