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Thursday 16 February 2023

5:30 Chelmsford Racing Tips (16th February)


A field of 8 for this class 5 apprentice jockey dash with 2 known front running types amongst them. I think both Astro Jakk and Dalby Forest need further to show their best form so might be worth laying and Porfin might also stay on too late for the win. Frisky needs to improve a few spots time wise to win here while I'm Mable is my 4th top rated, Bert Kibbler a possible pacesetter is my 3rd top rated but that's using a rating on the Tapeta surface at Southwell and hasn't run on this surface before so could be dangerous if improving for the switch of surfaces. Beneficiary is my top rated but again using a Tapeta rating but this time from Newcastle which is also a straight course over today's distance but as you know i love a front running type and in this race I'm hoping that EXPERT OPINION 5/1 can lead all the way, it has won over this course and distance before while the apprentice jockey is 1-3 when riding for today's stable which has a 17% win ratio in apprentice jockey races. 

Expert Opinion 5/1 3rd -1pt 

Lay bets Astro Jakk +1pt 

Total 0pts


Ten runners in this class 5 sprint with 4 horses that have been known to lead before but this race is nigh on impossible to analyse to a proper conclusion. Bang On The Drum and Autumn Flight may struggle to stay the distance in this race while Desert Boots might be better suited to a longer distance. Magical Max a possible pacesetter is my 5th top rated using a rating from its last run when finishing 2nd so is in good form while Mustaffiz comes out in 4th top spot but that is using a Polytrack rating from Southwell. MUSCIKA 9/2 who is a versatile type when it comes to racing tactics, that does include leading, is my joint top rated on my ratings from last year and this and if I go back to 2021 it would then be my top rated, BEZZA'S LAD 5/1 is a front running type and my other joint top rated on recent Polytrack ratings and using a Tapeta rating from Wolverhampton in 2022 it comes out in 2nd top spot on my overall figures, EL HOMBRE 17/2 is only 3rd top rated on recent Polytrack ratings, there is only 1lb between my top rated trio, but is top rated, again by only 1lb, if I use its best Tapeta rating again from Wolverhampton last year. With there only being 1lb between them it is virtually impossible to split them so I will dutch the 3 of them and it also covers the angles of front running types and something coming from off the pace in case they go off too fast and fade nearing the finish.

Muscika 6/1 3rd -1pt 
El Hombre 17/2 3rd -1pt 
Bezza's Lad 13/2 6th -1pt 

Total -3pts 

Total on the day -3pts

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