5:30 Chelmsford Racing Tips (16th February)

CHELMSFORD 5.30 

A field of 8 for this class 5 apprentice jockey dash with 2 known front running types amongst them. I think both Astro Jakk and Dalby Forest need further to show their best form so might be worth laying and Porfin might also stay on too late for the win. Frisky needs to improve a few spots time wise to win here while I'm Mable is my 4th top rated, Bert Kibbler a possible pacesetter is my 3rd top rated but that's using a rating on the Tapeta surface at Southwell and hasn't run on this surface before so could be dangerous if improving for the switch of surfaces. Beneficiary is my top rated but again using a Tapeta rating but this time from Newcastle which is also a straight course over today's distance but as you know i love a front running type and in this race I'm hoping that EXPERT OPINION 5/1 can lead all the way, it has won over this course and distance before while the apprentice jockey is 1-3 when riding for today's stable which has a 17% win ratio in apprentice jockey races. 

Expert Opinion 5/1 3rd -1pt 

Lay bets Astro Jakk +1pt 

Total 0pts

CHELMSFORD 6.00 

Ten runners in this class 5 sprint with 4 horses that have been known to lead before but this race is nigh on impossible to analyse to a proper conclusion. Bang On The Drum and Autumn Flight may struggle to stay the distance in this race while Desert Boots might be better suited to a longer distance. Magical Max a possible pacesetter is my 5th top rated using a rating from its last run when finishing 2nd so is in good form while Mustaffiz comes out in 4th top spot but that is using a Polytrack rating from Southwell. MUSCIKA 9/2 who is a versatile type when it comes to racing tactics, that does include leading, is my joint top rated on my ratings from last year and this and if I go back to 2021 it would then be my top rated, BEZZA'S LAD 5/1 is a front running type and my other joint top rated on recent Polytrack ratings and using a Tapeta rating from Wolverhampton in 2022 it comes out in 2nd top spot on my overall figures, EL HOMBRE 17/2 is only 3rd top rated on recent Polytrack ratings, there is only 1lb between my top rated trio, but is top rated, again by only 1lb, if I use its best Tapeta rating again from Wolverhampton last year. With there only being 1lb between them it is virtually impossible to split them so I will dutch the 3 of them and it also covers the angles of front running types and something coming from off the pace in case they go off too fast and fade nearing the finish.

Muscika 6/1 3rd -1pt 

El Hombre 17/2 3rd -1pt 

Bezza's Lad 13/2 6th -1pt 

Total -3pts 

Total on the day -3pts

4:00 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (27th November)

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.00 

OOH IS IT 5/1 has only a slow time from its only previous c/d run and a slow time at Newcastle as well so maybe this Tapeta surface isn’t ideal for it and may be worth laying.

HOWZAK 3/1 has been in good form lately with 3 wins and two placed efforts from its last 5 runs but it hasn't any form on this surface so not sure what to expect but would win if able to reproduce its best speed figure on the Polytrack surface and is 1 of 3 possible pacesetters drawn in stall seven. 

STAKE ACCLAIM 7/1 has a rating from 2020 that would make it just outside my top four ratings but does have the stall 1 draw but isn't known as a front running type so its stall 1 draw might be a bit of a disadvantage. 

EXPERT OPINION 15/2 a 3yo who has also been known to lead before and in the make-up of this race stall eight not not be too bad and is my top rated on just 2021 course and distance speed figures. 

TATHMEEN 16/1 hasn't shown much time wise over this course and distance since 2019 and from stall 11 it will need a degree of luck to gain a clear run without being taken too wide.

SHOW ME A SUNSET 8/1 is usually held up for a late run but would need to improve on its best speed figure which was recorded in 2020 but that is good enough for joint 3rd top spot but hasn't been to that level so far this year. 

THE DALEY EXPRESS 8/1 this one seems to be slowly getting slower each year, its best form 2020 would make it my joint 3rd top rated but its best from 2019 would make it my 2nd top rated but hasn't a recorded figure for this year so not for me in this race. 

SHAMSHON 14/1 is the 3rd of the horses that has been known to lead before and its time recorded this year is good enough for 2nd top spot on just this years times but stall 10 may see it carried wide on the bend with the other 2 possible pacesetters drawn on its inside.

SOME NIGHTMARE 11/2 this one hasn't any form over this course and distance and looking at other form it may need a longer distance for this one to show its best form and i would think about laying this one at the price. 

HIGHEST AMBITION 33/1 has had 2 previous runs over this course and distance but both produced slow times and might be another that will shine when raced over further. 

BEZZA'S LAD 11/1 hasn't won in 8 previous runs on an artificial surface And is the third on on the trot that might better when racing over further. 

SUMMARY: I will look to lay Ooh Is It 5/1 who has won its last 2 races but with doubts over the suitability of this Tapeta surface i am willing to take it on if of value to do so, I think the winner will come from either, HOWZAK 3/1 but it depend on whether it takes to this surface or not but its speed figure rating is a good few spots higher than anything else in the race or *EXPERT OPINION 15/2 who i will also be backing as it is my top rated on just this years course and distance speed figures with both of them being front running types they may prove more than hard to catch for the rest of the field and i am not sure which horse would be the one to prosper if they front runners go off too fast and tire inside the final furlong.

*NR 

Howzak 3/1 7th -1pt 

Lay Ooh Is It (too big price) 

Total on the day -1pt