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Friday 17 February 2023

7:30 Newcastle Racing Tips (18th February)


On paper this looks a decent sprint for a class 6 affair but dig a little deeper and the waters become very muddied, Calins Lad 7/1 is my top rated but it races as though further would suit it better and its finding very little nearing the finish of its races and then only making the frame but not winning, maybe worth an each way bet but only if a double figure price to make the risk worthwhile, Tathmeen 6/1 is always capable on a going day and if allowed an easy lead here, there's no way I would call this horse a natural front running type in this race, as it has been known to lead when nothing else wanted to and that could happen here and it is my 3rd top rated horse. Show Compassion ran on well over 5 furlongs so this distance might be ideal and the key word is might but I like to stick with the proven, Nickleby and Enderman have run well when the going has probably been riding on the slow side so I've no idea exactly what this pair are capable of producing time wise and with 3 distinct dangers but unproven horses this race is maybe best left well alone. 


This 5 furlong dash looks a very poor race but at least there are a couple of known front running types amongst the 13 runners, there looks to be a few horses that seem to have virtually no chance of winning, never say never, Gunnerside might be of value to lay as it might need further to show its best form, Elzaal has been in good form lately but time wise needs to improve a few spots but its best from 2021 would put this one 3rd on my overall figures, so maybe both worth the risk of laying. Mrs Bagerran is a front running type and my 4th top rated but this one is still a maiden after 26 races which makes me doubt its temperament but could make the frame on a going day, Mops Gem likes to track the leaders and comes out 3rd best on my figures but has never won over this distance so not sure its rating can be believed, Primo is my 2nd top rated but seems to save its best for Southwell but I'm not 100% sure whether to lay this one or not. Top on my figures is JOSHUA R 15/2 and this one won 2 runs ago but then performed badly last time out but could go well here and will be carrying some of my money but digging deep into my data I come across BIRDIE BOWERS 18/1 (EW) who is a distance winner and has been known to lead before which was enough to grab my attention, the jockeys record for today's stable is 3-11 and rode this horse last time out over six furlongs where it led until fading badly nearing the finish, that was its 1st run since September so it looks likely they was trying to get it race fit, so if able to lead here could hold on for the win and this horse has won before without prior warning and if a big price as forecast on the early tissue prices then I will certainly be having an each way interest.

Birdie Bowers 18/1 5th -2pts 
Joshua R 15/2 8th -1pt

Lay bets Elzaal -2.5pts, Gunnerside +1pt 

Total on the day -4.5pts

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