6:00 Newcastle Racing Tips (29th September)

NEWCASTLE 6.00 

This is a tricky looking race with four 3yo’s and a couple that look like possibly hidden dangers so any stakes, if any, will need to be kept low, I cannot see anything that looks likely to be of value to lay, another negative in a race, and to top it all off there doesn't appear to be anything that normally likes to front run in the race, if I had to back something in this race it would be a toss up between Asadjumeirah 9/1 and Captain Vallo 16/1 who are my top rated horses neither have been in great form so they would need to be each way prices near the off before I could be tempted to have a wager. 

NEWCASTLE 8.30 

I can see 2 known front running types in this race and it looks a race where I will have to have 2 bets to cover the angles with a front running type and one that usually finishes well. Firstly and according to the early tissue prices Mumcat 5/1 will be to the fore in the betting but I think it does better over longer distances so I can see it getting outpaced here before staying on too late at the finish to be able to win this race and would need others to falter to even make the frame. Blackcurrant has been in good form of late but its just outside my top 3 ratings but it could make the frame but I doubt it will be an each way price, Joshua R is my 3rd top rated but this one hasn't been in good form recently so not sure what to expect but I couldn't back it in this race, BIRDIE BOWERS 16/1 (EW) is one of the front running types in this race and is well drawn in stall 12 plus the jockey has a 20% win ratio riding for the stable it could lead all the way here but if it gets into a duel with Blackcurrent they could push each other too hard and set the race up for one coming from off the pace and if BASHOLO 18/1 (EW) from stall 11 gets a good tow into the race it could stay on the stronger at the finish and hopefully, according to the early tissue prices, they will both be each way prices as that looks the way to go in this race.

Basholo 18/1 5th -2pts

Birdie Bowers 16/1 8th -2pts

Total -4pts

Total on the day -4pts 

2:35 Southwell Racing Tips (20th August)

SOUTHWELL 2.35

Div1 6F Class6 Stakes Race 10 Runners

Both legs of this race are poor with three 3yo’s that could improve without warning but are all forecast to be double figure prices so I couldn't back any of them, I'm not sure what will set the pace which is always a worry, Flavius Titus 5/1 and Wrath Of Hector 4/1 may need further so this race might not suit them but either of them could change their usual tactics and decide to set the pace and then there stamina could come into play so I certainly couldn't lay either of them, if there's a decent early pace then Blackcurrent might not stay the distance but I expect it to be a double figure price, Thegreatestshowman 9/2 is always capable of going well when in the mood but I doesn't represent any value at the price so i will be having a small bet on DEPUTISE 10/1, it can be held up or track the leaders which could be useful in this race, the trainer has a good record at this course and the horse is dropped in class from handicaps to these lower level stakes races. 

Back DEPUTISE 10/1

Deputise 10/1 1st +10pts

Total +10pts

 SOUTHWELL 3.05 

Div II 6F 9Runners

Once again no known front running types and also a trio of 3yo’s but none have shown enough to interest me in this race, the betting forecast makes it quite tight between the top 3 on the card although I'm not keen on Hot Scoop 6/1 and might look to lay it, Beast Of Burden 5/2 is my 2nd top rated but then there's only 2 horses that have recorded a rating recently but i will be backing COAST 10/3 who likes to track the leaders and is dropped slightly in class from handicaps here and I'm hoping that will be enough to rejuvenate it.

Back COAST 10/3 (NR) 

Lay HOT SCOOP 6/1 

Lay bet: Hot Scoop +1pt

Total +1pt

SOUTHWELL 5.10 

5F Class 6 13 Runners

First thing that grabbed my attention was that Shesadabber 5/2 has been forecast to be a shortish priced (9/4) favourite, it has won its last 2 races so is in tip top form but they were both on turf with good to soft ground, it hasn't won in 8 races on the AW tracks and has only made the frame in one of them and then its better form seems to be on the Polytrack surface so i will be looking to lay it, Under Curfew 13/2 also prefers the Polytrack surface so another to lay if its a single figure price. The bottom weight Birdie Bowers could set the pace to this race being my 2nd top rated horse and has finished in the frame in its last 2 races so could go well again here and might be worth an each way bet, Dalby Forest usually stays on at the finish over this distance and being my 4th top rated could make the frame if others falter while Brandy Station isn't one to discount too easily but my money will be riding on BLAZING HOT who indicated at a return to form when finishing 3rd last time out and is dropped in class to run here and most if not all of its wins have come at this level of racing. Ok so my original choice is now a non-runner which changes things and i will now be having a bet on BIRDIE BOWERS 7/1 who could now lead all the way as it has become my new top rated horse.

Back BIRDIE BOWERS 7/1 

Lay SHESADABBER 5/2 (NA)

Birdie Bowers 8/1 7th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day +10pts

7:30 Newcastle Racing Tips (18th February)

NEWCASTLE 7.30 

On paper this looks a decent sprint for a class 6 affair but dig a little deeper and the waters become very muddied, Calins Lad 7/1 is my top rated but it races as though further would suit it better and its finding very little nearing the finish of its races and then only making the frame but not winning, maybe worth an each way bet but only if a double figure price to make the risk worthwhile, Tathmeen 6/1 is always capable on a going day and if allowed an easy lead here, there's no way I would call this horse a natural front running type in this race, as it has been known to lead when nothing else wanted to and that could happen here and it is my 3rd top rated horse. Show Compassion ran on well over 5 furlongs so this distance might be ideal and the key word is might but I like to stick with the proven, Nickleby and Enderman have run well when the going has probably been riding on the slow side so I've no idea exactly what this pair are capable of producing time wise and with 3 distinct dangers but unproven horses this race is maybe best left well alone. 

NEWCASTLE 8.00 

This 5 furlong dash looks a very poor race but at least there are a couple of known front running types amongst the 13 runners, there looks to be a few horses that seem to have virtually no chance of winning, never say never, Gunnerside might be of value to lay as it might need further to show its best form, Elzaal has been in good form lately but time wise needs to improve a few spots but its best from 2021 would put this one 3rd on my overall figures, so maybe both worth the risk of laying. Mrs Bagerran is a front running type and my 4th top rated but this one is still a maiden after 26 races which makes me doubt its temperament but could make the frame on a going day, Mops Gem likes to track the leaders and comes out 3rd best on my figures but has never won over this distance so not sure its rating can be believed, Primo is my 2nd top rated but seems to save its best for Southwell but I'm not 100% sure whether to lay this one or not. Top on my figures is JOSHUA R 15/2 and this one won 2 runs ago but then performed badly last time out but could go well here and will be carrying some of my money but digging deep into my data I come across BIRDIE BOWERS 18/1 (EW) who is a distance winner and has been known to lead before which was enough to grab my attention, the jockeys record for today's stable is 3-11 and rode this horse last time out over six furlongs where it led until fading badly nearing the finish, that was its 1st run since September so it looks likely they was trying to get it race fit, so if able to lead here could hold on for the win and this horse has won before without prior warning and if a big price as forecast on the early tissue prices then I will certainly be having an each way interest.

Birdie Bowers 18/1 5th -2pts 

Joshua R 15/2 8th -1pt

Lay bets Elzaal -2.5pts, Gunnerside +1pt 

Total on the day -4.5pts