7:15 Southwell Racing Tips (13th September)

SOUTHWELL 7.15

Last time out Jordan Electrics sprung back to form and could set the pace in this race but this is a better race and I doubt it can lead all the way against this opposition, Antiphon also likes to lead so there should be a fast early pace, Tyger Bay comes out in 4th top spot using a time recorded at Newcastle this year but its best here is quite a few spots lower but could make the frame, Amazonian Dream hasn't run on the AW tracks before but has recorded a fast time at Goodwood on turf so could be a danger if taking to this Tapeta surface, TOLSTOY 11/2 comes out in 2nd top spot using a time recorded at Wolverhampton it also has a time recorded on the Polytrack surface which would take it to top spot plus its proven to be in form winning last time out on turf 10 days ago a negative is the stall 13 draw, the top weight HIERARCHY 12/1 is dropped in class to run in this race and showed a pointer that it is coming in to form when finishing 4th in its last run, both of the horses I will be backing need a degree of luck with their wide draws but hopefully at least one of them will get a clear run. 

Hierarchy 12/1 4th -1pt  

Tolstoy 15/2 9th 1pt

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 8.15

In this race I can see a trio of front running types so it ought to be a true run race especially over this straight course but I think a middle to low draw can have a slight advantage, Lil Guff hasn't any form on this surface but its best turf rating would give it a chance as it would be my 2nd top rated, Faustus is my 4th top rated in stall 14 and likes to lead so could possibly make the frame, Show Me Show Me comes out in 3rd top spot on my unique ratings and has been drawn in stall 11 so could get sandwiched between two fast starters as there's another front running type housed in stall 8, my money will be riding on the other known front running type in the shape of ANGLE LAND 6/1 who ran well when finishing 2nd last time out and has been found an ideal opportunity to go one better here from stall 4 plus it looks like Frankie Dettori is coming here to ride just this one horse so I expect it will be well backed.

Angle Land 6/1 7th -1pt

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -3pts

5:40 Chelmsford Racing Tips (9th July)

CHELMSFORD 5.40 

5F Class 3 8-Runners. 

MAY SONIC - likes to track the leaders but may need further to show its best but would come out 3rd best using its best rating on the Tapeta surface. 

ROGUE SPIRIT- a 3yo who likes to track the pacesetters, when it won on turf it was a slow time on good to firm ground and I expect an outsider here. 

TWILIGHT MADNESS- another possible pacesetter but stall 9 isn't ideal in this race and still races as though further would suit it better. 

ANGLE LAND- the 2nd of 3 known front running types in this race is my 2nd top rated and from stall 3 it could gain control of the rails and then prove hard to catch being my 2nd top rated. 

BEAR PROFIT- usually likes to race in midfield and is my 3rd top rated on Polytrack courses and could prosper if they go off too fast in the front. 

DEMOCRACY DILEMMA 7/2- a 3yo who races as though further would suit it better and might get outpaced early doors in this race and looks poor value to me. 

THE DEFIANT- the final front running type in the field and has the top rating but that was in a lower class race and might not be up to winning at this level. 

THE THAMES BOATMAN- the final 3yo in the race who hasn't any form on the Polytrack surface but its best rating on Tapeta would put it in 3rd top spot.

SUMMARY:  Its certainly not a race to be betting in too heavily especially with the 3yo’s in the race, it should on paper be won from the front and that could swing things in the favour of ANGLE LAND 8/1 (EW) who is drawn nearest the rail of the front running types in stall 3 and if gaining control on the rails it could prove too hard to catch and if an each way price that would be ideal as I would expect it to at least make the frame.

Angle Land 8/1 7th -2pts 

Total on the day -2pts

2:25 Lingfield Racing Tips (31st March)

LINGFIELD 2.25

A 12 runner race where I can see 3 horses that could lead but it looks likely that they will be setting the race up for something coming from off the pace. Toplight 11/2 might struggle to say the distance with the fast early pace so maybe one to lay, Viewfromthestars 11/2 my 4th top rated and Dark Design 7/1 my 3rd top rated are both versatile with their racing tactics and that includes leading so either could do enough to make the frame but neither are what I would call each way prices, Real Estate 12/1 sits in 2nd top spot and likes to track the leaders so could make the frame and maybe worth an each way wager if it stays at a double figure price nearing the off while my top rated horse DEPUTISE 18/1 can be held up or track the leaders it hasn't been in the best of form recently and it looks to have had excuses in most of those races but the switch of jockey looks a significant as his record is 3 wins from just 7 rides for the stable.

Deputise 25/1 9th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 4.20

This class 4 dash has 6 front running types amongst the 14 entrants and it looks most likely it will be won from the front, *Justcallmepete 5/1 might prefer further so I will look to lay it, Bert Kibler 7/1 is my 3rd top rated and could do best of those coming from off the pace and if the leaders battle too hard and fade it could possibly win the race but I will hope that doesn't happen, Khabib 10/1 comes out in 2nd top spot and is in stall 2 while my top rated horse ANGLE LAND 4/1 is drawn in stall 13 and if this one gets to the front it ought to prove too hard to catch. 

*NR

Angle Land 9/2 2nd -1pt  

Total -1pt 

LINGFIELD 4.35

A field of 9 for this 5 furlong dash with 4 of the runners having been known to lead before so it should be a fast and furious race. Storm Melody 7/1 won last time out but might be outclassed as its never won at this level before but could still run a decent race so I will look to lay it but only for the win part, Man On A Mission 7/2 could do best of the rest coming from off the pace but looks too short in the betting for its actual chance of winning this race, The Defiant 12/1 is a front running type and could go well but hasn't been in good form recently so not sure what to expect, so I will be hoping the top weight PABLO DEL PUEBLO 9/2 can get to the front and prevail but this one also hasn't won at this level before but this does look the easiest class 5 race its ever ran in which is the reason why its the top weight.

Pablo Del Pueblo 9/2 8th -1pt 

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 6.20

I can see 2 front running types in this 11 runner dash in the shape of High Security and Murbih 9/2 who is my 4th top rated, I will look to lay Princess Karine 12/1 who may prefer further and its wins on Turf have come in slow run races if its a single figure price, Kraken Power 3/1 is my 3rd top rated and like the 2nd top rated Our Absent Friends 7/1 likes to track the leaders so they should ensure the pace is fast which could play into the hands of GOLDEN RAINBOW 12/1 (EW) and the jockey has a respectable 17% win ratio when riding for the stable and as usual at the price it has to be an each way bet.

Golden Rainbow 12/1 8th -2pts 

Total -2pts 

NEWCASTLE 8.20

A problem race with no known front running types so any stakes are automatically going to be lower than normal, Henry Hawk might be better over further so this race might not be run to suit it and might be worth laying if a single figure price, One Hart 9/2 is my 3rd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders but also might need further so this race might not suit it, Kapono 11/1 is capable of winning this race but hasn't been in good form lately and the apprentice jockey has a poorish 6% strike rate for the stable, I will take a punt on TATHMEEN 9/1 it is a hold up type but has got a better final kick than most of these so hopefully can get to the front in time but as I said it will only be for small stakes.

Tathmeen 11/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -6pts

6:00 Chelmsford Racing Tips (16th March)

CHELMSFORD 6.00 

A field of 8 for this class 5 amateur jockeys race and the word amateur automatically means my stakes will be kept to a minimum, there isn't any known front running types in this race which is always a worry, I will look to lay Shalaa Asker 4/1 who struggles to stay this distance with a fast early pace, so the race could play into its hands but if its held up as usual then it might find the leaders not tiring near the finish because I'm pretty sure one or more will set the pace and they might then go off too fast, so that's why a race is harder to analyse without any known early paced types. Hit Mac is my 3rd top rated and also seems to be better over further so ought to run into a place here. If Lilkian 9/4 could reproduce its best 2021 rating then it would be joint top rated but has been well below that level since then, i will be backing EL HOMBRE 6/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and the stable has a reasonable 17% win ratio in apprentice jockey races. 

El Hombre 6/1 5th -1pt

Lay bet: Shalaa Asker -2.25pts

Total -3.25pts 

SOUTHWELL 8.10 

A field of 13 for this class 6 dash and 4 of them have been known to lead before, I'm not sure there will be anything of value to lay in this race, The Tron races as though further would suit it better and is 3rd best on my figures so could run on strongly enough to make the frame, Brandy Station comes out in joint top spot and likes to track the leaders so could do enough to make the frame but might not be able to catch USTATH 3/1 who is my other joint top rated so as it should have 1st run on its main contenders it could lead all the way and just hold on for the win. 

Ustath 4/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

CHELMSFORD 8.30 

I doubt I can find an each way bet but I hope all 8 runners take part so as to give 3 places for anyone who does bet each way. Dalby Forest 9/2 might be better when racing over further it will be staying on at the finish but I think too late for the win and will be one to lay if a single figure price and the same applies to Crimson Sand 9/1. Alafdhal is my 3rd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders, Saaheq 16/1 would be top rated if I used a Lingfield rating it recorded in 2022 but it usually needs a run for fitness after a break so today’s race might not be its target and I think it will one of the outsiders in the race, my money will be riding on ANGLE LAND 3/1 who is the only known front running type in the race and I expect it will lead from start to finish.

Angle Land 4/1 1st +4pts

Lay bets: Crimson Sand +1pt, Dalby Forest +1pt

Total +6pts

Total on the day +1.75pts

5:00 Chelmsford Racing Tips (3rd November)

CHELMSFORD 5.00 Div I

This 1st division isn't too bad a race for a class 6 affair but the 2nd leg is so poor its impossible to analyse with any degree of accuracy and I will be leaving that race alone.

I'm not really sure what will lead in this race but Viewfromthestars 8/1 has done so when nothing else wants to lead and it might have to do that here but if something else sets a decent gallop then it might get outpaced early and then have too much ground to make up to win this race but if allowed an easy lead then it could possibly lead all the way as further might suit this 3yo better but its not worth the risk to lay it at the price, I've written quite a bit about this horse because the race could pivot around what this one does from the start. There are a few who have virtually no chance of winning this race but I expect them to be outsiders in the betting. Starjik even money won last time out but even for this level it was a relatively slow run race so it might have been flattered by the result and might be worth laying at least for the win part especially at the price. Nigg Bay is another that might be of value to lay as all runs over today's distance have resulted in ratings not good enough to register on my speed figures. Admirable Lad 9/2 will be to the fore in the betting and is my 3rd top rated and has won its last 3 races so I expect it to run well but I do wonder if the official handicapper has caught up with it now. Company Minx 9/1 is my 2nd top rated and finished 3rd last time out but the jockey's record of 0-15 for the stable puts me off backing it. I will take a punt with a small, hopefully each way, punt on BERNARD SPEIRPOINT 16/1 (EW) who is usually held up for a late run so would ideally like a decent early gallop so the leaders haven't got things in reserve to repel the late challengers, its poor trainer stats are a concern so a small each way punt and keep my fingers crossed it can reproduce its best rating from last year. 

Bernard Speirpoint 16/1 2nd +2.1pts

Total +2.1pts

CHELMSFORD 6.00 

I can see 6 possible pacesetters in this class 5 dash, I am not sure if I can find anything of value, under 10/1, to lay in this race but my best hope might be Yimou but only time and the betting will tell. There is not a lot between my top 5 rated horses, Ornate and Micks Spirit are my joint 4th top rated horses, the former is a possible pacesetter from stall 4 while the latter likes to track the leaders and then stay on at the finish. Howzak another possible pacesetter in stall 2 is my 3rd top rated and if getting to the front could be dangerous. Thank The Lord is my 2nd top rated and another possible front runner coming out of stall 3, the problem could be that there is another known front running type, the 3yo Thank The Lord, housed in stall 1 so there could be skirmishing if they all battle to lead and for control on the rails but another 3yo, ANGLE LAND 5/1 who finished 2nd last time out in a time that would see it winning this race but only just, it was ridden last time out for the 1st time by Hayley Turner and the stable are using her again which makes me think they are expecting, or hoping, to go one better in this race but she is 0-23 for the stable which doesn't inspire confidence but I'm hoping an each way bet might show a profit but its another race where my stakes will be kept low. 

Angle Land 5/1 2nd -1pt

Lay bet Yimou +1pt 

Total 0pts

Total on the day +2.1pts