4:55 Chelmsford Racing Tips (14th September)

CHELMSFORD 4.55 

There's 13 runners and 8 of them are 3yo’s which always puts me on the back foot betting wise as any of them can improve without warning, on the very limited amount of data I have got to work with the MOSTALLIM 3/1 has a few spots in hand and being a front running type it could be very hard to catch especially if allowed an easy lead but my stakes will be kept low. 

Mostallim 3/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt

CHELMSFORD 7.30 

An eight runner race where 3 of them are 3yo’s although in this race none of them look fancied according to the early tissue prices, Princess Shabnam 11/1 is my 3rd top rated and could be the one to set the pace to this race so might be worth an each way interest, on recent times, 2023 then JUSTCALLMEPETE 9/2 comes out as my top rated and it recorded that rating when it won here over this course and distance but I've got *TOLSTOY 5/1 rated a few spots higher but that is using a 2022 rating but this horse also won last time out where this one recorded a decent rating at Brighton and could win this race if able to reproduce its best rating from last year but with that question mark against it I will have to back them both but I do expect them to be the pair that will be at the fore of the betting.

*NR

Justcallmepete 9/2 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -3pts

2:35 Southwell Racing Tips (21st January)

SOUTHWELL 2.35 

Typical a nice class 3 race with decent prize money and only 7 runners are entered, *Spirit Of Nguru might need further to show its best and with no known front runner in the race it might not be run to suit it so maybe worth laying, I have got JUSTCALLMEPETE 5/4 as my top rated on course and distance ratings, it has won its last 3 races and has been stepped up one level in class but it seems to be an improving horse and has to have every chance of completing the four-timer in this race. 

*NR

Justcallmepete 5/4 1st +1.25pts

Total +1.25pts

LINGFIELD 3.22 

Lord Riddiford, La Roca del Fuego and The Bell Conductor have been known to lead before but i think the top weighted The Bell Conductor who has won 4 from 5 races its had on an artificial surface but is now racing off an official rating of 95 which might be above where its capable of winning so I couldn't back it. Silky Wilkie seems a better horse over a longer distance but will be staying on nearing the finish but whether it will get there in time I'm not sure but it would be enough to at least put me off backing it. STRONG POWER 9/2 is usually held up for a late run where it stays on powerfully nearing the finish and has been racing in higher class affairs compared to this class 3 race and has good trainer/jockey stats which is usually a positive and will be carrying my money. 

Strong Power 9/2 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 3.45 

This is one of those poor class 6 stakes races where they all carry the same weight, there's 12 runners with just one known front running type amongst them and that one could lead all the way here. I think Paddy K and Danah Star might need further to show there best so I will lay them if of value to do so along with Gorgeous General who is better over a shorter trip, I will be backing USTATH 2/1 who has led before and has the stall 1 draw in this race so if getting to the front and gaining control of the rails could lead all the way but the race sure wont take much winning so any stakes will be kept low, it finished 2nd yesterday, Friday, so if turning out here so quickly then connections must be expecting it to go one better here. 

Ustath 2/1 1st +2pts

Lay bets Paddy K +1pt, Danah Star +1pt 

Total +4pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30 

A field of 12 for this class 5 sprint where i can see 3 horses, Araifjan, Rebel Redemption and Muscika that have led before and they are fairly closely rated so any of the trio could lead but if Rebel Redemption is allowed an easy lead it could do enough to at least make the frame but stall 12 isn't ideal, but I think they will be setting the race up for a hold up type, Beauzon is my 4th top rated with El Hombre sitting in 3rd top spot and 2nd spot is taken by Porfin so any of them could make the frame if reproducing their previous best ratings but I have SARAH'S VERSE 16/1 (EW) rated top using a course and distance rating from last year, its been awhile since the stable last had a winner but the apprentice jockeys only previous ride for the stable resulted in a win so I'm hoping for the same here but at the price it has to be an each way wager. 

Sarah's Verse 20/1 3rd +4pts 

Total +4pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00 Div I

This 1st division of a 0-50 stakes race is very poor even for the class and in all honesty the race is probably best left alone, none of them have been in great form recently but something has to win the race. Oxygen Thief recorded a rating from this year at Chelmsford which would put it in 4th top spot but it only just registered at the very bottom end of my ratings and may be better over further. Lesha is my 3rd top but this surface isn't its favourite but could still make the frame, Tommytwohoots is my 2nd top rated on a course and distance time it recorded last year so could go well here but CREEK HARBOUR 6/1 has a rating from 2021 which is way better than anything else recorded by anything else in this race, it has been running over longer distances and has only had one course and distance run since then but the apprentice jockey is 0-6 when riding for this stable but this horse has been known to lead before and if deploying those tactics here it could possibly lead all the way but the betting will decide whether i think its value enough to take the risk of backing it. 

Abandoned due to fog 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30 Div II 

The top weight At Your Service would have a decent chance if able to reproduce its best 2021 rating but its not ran for 529 days and its form had tailed off prior to its layoff so might need this run for fitness. I expect that Inaam will be to the fore in the betting after it finished 3rd last time out over 7 furlongs and weakened close home, it is the only horse in the race rated 50 so that might also restrict its price but I think its a much better prospect when racing on the Polytrack surface and will look to lay this one. The early pace could be set by VIEWFROMTHESTARS 6/1 who is ideally drawn in stall 2 to lead and if getting to the front and reproducing its best course and distance rating from 2022 it could get back to winning ways.

Abandoned due to fog 

Total on the day +4.25pts

3:20 Southwell Racing Tips (15th Jauary)

SOUTHWELL 3.20 

THE GREEN MAN has made the frame in both of its AW runs but not over this distance and would need to improve on its best rating on turf to win this race. 

EMBOUR can be held up or track the leaders and is my top rated and in the make-up of this race stall 12 might not be too much of a problem. 

WYVERN is usually held up for a late run but would need to improve time wise to win this race and is poorly drawn in stall 13 for its racing style. 

THE THIN BLUE LINE another one that is usually held up at the back of the field and then delivered late but would need to improve a little time wise but could go well. 

WESTMORIAN this one won at Newcastle but that was a slow run affair and might find things happening too fast for it in this race. 

STRAITS OF MOYLE another horse that likes to be held up at the back of the field before running on at the finish, hasn't run here before needs to improve on its best Newcastle rating. 

ASADJUMEIRAH usually likes to race in midfield but hasn't run here before and would need to improve on its best Tapeta rating from Newcastle. 

MINESBIGGERTHANURS hasn't any form on this course and may need a longer distance before it can produce its best ratings. 

INTERVENTION is one of 3 in this race that have been known to lead before and in stall 4 has the lowest draw of the pacesetters so could possibly make the frame. 

JUSTCALLEPETE this one usually likes to track the leaders before staying on the stronger in the closing stages and is my top rated on just course and distance ratings. 

MOTAWAAZY a possible pacesetter from stall 8 but this trip can prove too far for it if the early pace is fast so this race might not be run to suit it. AIRSHOW the 3rd and final front running type in this race and coming out of stall 11 but time wise it would need to improve to win this race so not for me here. 

SHALAA ASKER is another one that struggles to stay the distance if the early gallop is a fast one so might struggle in this race. 

SUMMARY: I would look to lay Shalaa Asker 9/1, Motawaazy 8/1 and Westmorian 4/1 if they are of value to do so, i am a little worried whether JUSTCALLMEPETE 9/2 will get a clear run being stuck between some fast starters but does have a competent jockey on board and if getting a clear run could run well and is my top rated using just course and distance ratings, my top rated using Tapeta ratings from elsewhere is EMBOUR 25/1 and can hopefully from stall 12 follow the pacesetters over towards the rails and gain a good position from which to attack late on and at the price i will be having an each way punt on it.

Justcallmepete 9/2 1st +4.5pts

Embour 50/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bets Shalaa Asker +1pt, Westmorian +1pt 

Total +5.5pts

Total on the day +5.5pts