2:05 Chelmsford Racing Tips (22nd June)

CHELMSFORD 2.05 

5F Class 5 9 Runners I can only see THE DEFIANT 7/1 as a front running type and being my 2nd top rated it could pinch this race from the front and will be carrying some of my money just in case that happens. Libertus might prefer a longer distance and may have been flattered by its 2nd place finish last time out in a slow run race so I will be looking to lay it, the same applies to Level Up about needing further so could be added to the lays list. Sir Rodneyredblood is my 3rd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders before staying on strongly nearing the finish and might be worth an each way interest. The other horse that will be running with my cash on it is MICK'S SPIRIT 8/1 who also likes to track the pacesetters before staying on resolutely nearing the finish and could pick up the leader close home if reproducing its best rating recorded at Lingfield. 

The Defiant 7/1 1st +7pts

Mick's Spirit 12/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bets: Level Up +1pt, Libertus +1pt

Total +8pts

RIPON 3.25 

6F Class 2 8 Runners With showers and heavy rain about I'm not going to waste too much time on this race, if the going is good to firm I will be hoping that *HYPERFOCUS 9/2 can lead all the way but I will need to watch an earlier race to check on the going before deciding whether to bet of not.

*NR 

Total on the day +8pts

4:00 Lingfield Racing Tips (7th March)

LINGFIELD 4.00 

A class 4 race with just 7 runners where I expect the favourite to be Lihou and it should be the one to set the pace to the race, I think Vespasian, Alafdhal, Watermelon Sugar and Gannon Glory are all better prospects when racing over a longer distance but I think if either MICK'S SPIRIT 6/1 or POP DANCER 16/1 can repeat their best ratings they could stay on strongly at the finish and catch the leader nearing the finish and I will split my stake between these two runners and it would have been an each way wager on the latter if there had been 8 runners and 3 places up for grabs but with 7 runners I will back them both to win. 

Pop Dancer 28/1 4th -1pt 

Mick's Spirit 6/1 7th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

LINGFIELD 4.35 

Down to class 6 but still only 7 runners and only 1 known front running type, Astro Jakk 11/2 might need further to show its best and might be worth laying in this race as might Battle Point 13/2 who seems a slightly better horse on the Tapeta surface, Lilkian won for me last time out but is only 4th top rated in this race but we know its in tip top form which is always a positive, Man On A Mission has also been in good form and is my 3rd top rated in this race, Hey Ho Lets Go sits in 2nd top spot and usually likes to track the leader who in this race will hopefully be PABLO DEL PUEBLO 7/2 who is also my top rated and if leading it should prove a very hard nut to crack and the jockey booking looks significant with a 2-9 win record for the stable so this might be worth a slightly higher win stake than the normal. 

Pablo Del Pueblo 7/2 1st +3.5pts

Total +3.5pts

LINGFIELD 5.10 

A field of 9 for this class 6 sprint with just 1 known front running type, I've got negatives against 5 of the runners and one of the remaining 4, Perfect Symphony hasn't been in good form lately and hasn't won since 2021 so could be added to the list of negatives and I might be tempted to lay any of them if of value to do so. Oxygen Thief comes out in joint 2nd top spot but it has never won over this distance but that may have been a flukey time when getting carried along in a fast run race, that leaves me with Navy Drums 5/4 who is the other joint 2nd top rated horse plus its the 1 I expect will set the pace to the race and could lead all the way for victory but I expect it will be a hot favourite so I might take a risk with PANDEMIC PRINCESS 25/1 (EW) who will hopefully be an each way price and if able to reproduce its best Chelmsford time at this course then could run on and would catch the leader just before the line. 

Pandemic Princess 66/1 8th -2pts 

Total -2pts

Total on the day -0.5pts

12:40 Kempton Racing Tips (17th January)

KEMPTON 12.40 

Class 6 dash with 9 runners and 3 known front running types where I'm not sure if I could lay anything, Ornate is my top rated but has been woefully out of form in recent runs its also capable of springing back to form without warning but is so unreliable I couldn't back or lay this one, the other 2 possible pacesetters are Ooh Is It and is another I couldn't back or lay while Autumn Flight recorded a fast time when getting towed along in a race this year at Lingfield but has never run here before but if taking to the course could go well, being my 3rd top rated horse but did lead last time before fading nearing the finish but it think they could all be setting the race up for MICK'S SPIRIT 5/2 who usually likes to track the leaders before staying on the stronger nearing the finish and from stall 2 should be able to attain a good position on the rails just behind the leaders ready to pounce, the trainer has a 20% strike rate here with their older horses and the apprentice jockey has 16% win ratio on the stables older horses. 

Mick's Spirit 5/2 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 5.00 

A class 5 dash with 8 runners and again there's 3 known front running types, Idoapologise hasn't won over this distance before as it seems too short for it and could be worth laying if of value to do so, Gannon Glory is held by the top weight on recent form and Murbih who is my 2nd top rated on just course and distance times both like to front run so it should be a true run affair. If KIM WEXLER 11/4 gets to the front it could prove hard to catch and is my top rated on Tapeta ratings from elsewhere and is in 3rd top spot on course and distance ratings but there is very little between my top 3 at this course but i cannot leave out my actual top rated horse here and that's SO GRATEFUL 5/1 who usually likes to track the leaders, so I will be covering the angles and backing both of them. 

Kim Wexler 9/2 1st 4.5pts

So Grateful 5/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bet Idoapolobte +1

Total +4.5pts

SOUTHWELL 5.30 

A field of 11 for this class 6 dash and for the 3rd sprint in a row I can see 3 known front running types in the race and I think this race should be won from the front, if The Tron is of value I would look to lay it as its seems to prefer a longer distance, Munificent won last time out about a month ago at Wolverhampton and is my joint top rated using that rating, it has never run here before but if taking to the track it could prove dangerous but would need a trouble free run to catch Mehmo who is my other joint top rated on Tapeta times from elsewhere and its one of the likely leaders but its only previous run here resulted in a slow time and if that's the best it can achieve here then it could struggle, BERNARD SPEIRPOINT 4/1 is another possible front runner and is my top rated on just course and distance ratings and by a good few spots. 

Bernard Speirpoint 9/2 9th -1pt

Lay bets The Tron +1pt 

0pts

SOUTHWELL 8.30 

A class 6 sprint with 13 runners no known front running types which always causes problems when trying to analyse a race and automatically means any bets will be for small stakes, the 10yo Muatadel seems to be slowing with age and the other old timer Dapper Man may prefer a shorter distance, Fylingdale 7/2, Tathmeen 9/1, Bluebird 4/1 and Camachess 14/1 are at the top of my ratings with the first two’s ratings coming on Tapeta but from elsewhere while the other 2 are top rated on just course and distance runs and only Lyingdale has a rating from both sources but its course and distance rating is the lower rating, maybe I could dutch all 4 of them or maybe I should leave the race alone, the deciding factor will be the betting and I might then be able to find a final conclusion to the race.

Total on the day +3.5pts

2:45 Lingield Racing Tips (11th January)

LINGFIELD 2.45 

A field of 8 for this class 5 dash where Yimou 9/1 who is my 3rd top rated could set the pace to the race and could be dangerous if afforded an easy lead, I think that both Mon On A Mission 11/8 and Storm Melody 10/1 might be outclassed now stepped up in class after finishing 1st and 3rd last time out in the same race and might be worth opposing. Nordic Glory and Wiley Post may require further to show their best but I expect them to be double figure prices, Vandad would have a good chance if able to reproduce its best from 2021 but hasn't been near that level since then. Lilkian is my 2nd top rated and could stay on to make the frame but I will be backing MICK'S SPIRIT 7/2 who usually likes to track the pacesetters before staying on the stronger at the finish, the trainer is in good form lately with a 2-5 record for the last 2 weeks and the trainer has a 22% strike rate at this course with their older horses and the jockeys got a 19% win ratio on the stables older horses all pointing to them expecting it to get back to winning ways in this race. 

Mick's Spirit 4/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

KEMPTON 7.30 

A competitive looking class 4 sprint with 9 entrants with just the one known front running type and that's Rattling 5/1 who has won over this course and distance but in a relatively slow run race and seems better on the Tapeta surface and might be one to lay, Alcazar 9/1 is another that seems to prefer the Tapeta surface. Palace Gardens and Zephina are forecast to be double figure prices but I wouldn't take the risk of laying either of them especially if there's any confidence in them on the betting. Cherish is my 2nd top rated and can be held up or track the leaders but in the make-up of this race stall 9 might not be ideal, my money will be riding on MISS BELLA BRAND 8/1 who is usually held up at the back for a late run and has won or made the frame in 12 of its 17 all-weather races and the jockey has 22% win ratio on the stables older horses and with a clear run it could pick up the leaders nearing the finish.

Miss Bella Brand 10/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pts

Total on the day -2pt

1:15 Lingfield Racing Tips (17th December)

LINGFIELD 1.15 

A class 5 dash with 10 runners with half the field having been known to lead, I have eliminated 4 runners as having virtually no chance of winning but only Bethersden Boy looks likely to be of value to lay. Of the front running types Yimou 9/2 hasn't any form over this course and distance and would need to improve on its best Chelmsford rating to win this race but does have the best of the draw in stall 2, Corinthia Knight has been in poor form lately and The Defiant is my 4th top rated but stall 9 doesn't look good for it in the make-up of this race. PEPPER STREAK 8/1 my joint 2nd top rated has stall 5 so is a possible pacesetter and being a 3yo could still improve and if getting to the front could be hard to catch but its been over a 100 days since the stable last had a winner and the jockey is 0-15 when riding for the stable, MICK'S SPIRIT 6/1 is my other joint 2nd top rated and this one likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish, it has good trainer/jockey stats, LILKIAN 4/1 is only top rated when taking off the apprentice jockeys 7lb allowance and in this race stall 1 might not be ideal if the leaders come across and in front of it. I will back all 3 to varying degrees with Micks Spirit being my biggest bet, then Lilkian as my 2nd best bet and Pepper Streak as my smallest bet. 

Abandoned due to weather

LINGFIELD 1.50

A class 6 sprint with 12 runners and no natural front running type amongst them although both Dazzerling 8/1 and Pollinate have done so when nothing else wants to lead but I think this distance might be too far for the former so could be worth laying, both would need to improve time wise. Admirable Lad, Perfect Symphony and Tawanafoq are my 5th, 4th and 3rd top rated and there's only 3lbs between them, If Lothian can produce its best Chelmsford rating at this course it comes out in 2nd top spot but I will be relying on REAL ESTATE 7/1 (EW) who likes to track the leaders before staying on strongly nearing the finish so I'm hoping this one is an each way price. 

Abandoned due to weather

CHELMSFORD 3.15 

A class 6 sprint with a full house of 14 runners and a couple of front running types, I will look to lay Breezyandbright 10/1 if its a single figure price near the off, as it looks a better prospect over a shorter distance, Amazing Amaya 7/1 seems better on the Tapeta surface and might also be of value to lay, Elegant Ellen 9/2 is still a maiden after 15 runs and might have been flattered when 3rd in a slow run race so could be added to my list of lays. Company Minx is my 3rd top rated and has the best of the draw in stall 1 but has been held up for a run most often in its previous runs, Shamshon can struggle to stay this distance if there's a really fast early pace but still comes out in 2nd top spot on my ratings and this race could be run to suit it. Viewfromthestars is one of the known front running types but would need to improve a good few spots time wise but the other front running type is DELEGATE THE LADY 12/1 (EW) who is drawn widest of all but it might not be too much of a hindrance with very little other early paced types in this field, yes it hasn't been in good form lately but has been known to spring back to form without prior warning and if getting to the front here could be hard to catch and has to be an each way punt at a double figure price.

Abandoned due to weather

1:12 Lingfield Racing Tips (12th December)

LINGFIELD 1.12 

PARISAIC a 3yo who likes to track the leaders but has never run on an artificial surface before but analysing its turf form it races as though further would suit it better. 

POP DANCER can be held up or race in midfield before trying to stay on nearing the finish and comes out in 2nd top spot on my figures so could go well. 

SERGEANT TIBBS I thought this one needed further when racing over six furlongs so I think it will be outpaced here and then stay on too late for the win. 

HARB a 3yo who is one of 2 known front running types in this race but would need to improve time wise to win this race. 

LYNN'S BOY another one that races as though a longer distance would suit it better and time wise its not shown much at this distance. 

MICK'S SPIRIT the other one of the front running types in this race and if this one gets to the front it ought to prove a very hard nut to crack. 

SUMMARY I could lay half the field in this class 4 race because they all might need further to show their best form, Hard should be prominent early but may have to give way somewhere in the race, if my top rated has an off day then Pop Dancer could be the one to capitalise but I will be hoping that MICK'S SPIRIT 11/2 can either lead or at least contest the lead and the prove too strong in the final stages of the race and the trainer does have a decent 17% win ratio at this course. 

Mick's Spirit 11/2 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.30 

An eleven runner class 6 dash but strangely for a five furlong race there isn't a known front running type amongst them which always makes it very hard to analyse. I'm not sure if there is anything in this race that I could confidently nominate as a lay bet although there is one or two that I don't fancy its such a poor race I'm not going down that route. If it was possible I could look to dutch five runners but then only to small stakes, Amazing Amaya 25/1, Duke Of Firenze 9/1, Glorious Charmer 14/1. Iesha 20/1 who recorded a faster time at Southwell compared to Nellie French 4/1 but this one has a higher rating over this course and distance, but it works out as an odds on bet which represents poor value so maybe the race is best left alone.

Total on the day -1pt

6:30 Chelmsford Racing Tips (17th November)

CHELMSFORD 6.30 

Only 5 runners for this class 2 sprint, See You Boy is making its English debut having previously run in France where it has won on the Polytrack surface so could be a big danger in this race, Ventura Tormenta hasn't run on the AW before but its best on turf isn’t good enough to win this race. Shallow Hal my 3rd top rated and Soldiers Minute in 2nd top spot both like to track the leaders but I am hoping that MAY SONIC 3/1 will set the pace to this race and then could prove hard to catch. 

May Sonic 3/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

CHELMSFORD 7.00 

A full house of 14 for this class 5 sprint with 2 or 3 that have been known to lead before, the 3yo Shades Of Summer 6/1 won last time out and could improve for that experience but that race was a poor event run in a slow time so it might have been flattered by the result and might be worth opposing but I cannot see anything else to lay as I think they will be double figure prices. Using a Wolverhampton rating Rattling 6/1 comes out in joint 3rd top spot and being a front running type could go well the other joint 3rd top rated is El Hombre 8/1 but this one time wise hasn't been in as good form as last year although it has been running well. Yimou 12/1 comes out 2nd best but once again its using a 2021 speed figure so I will be siding with ARAIFJAN 8/1 who is a versatile type when it comes to racing tactics and that includes leading and with the make-up of this race it could deploy any tactic and if getting to the front ought to prove too hard to catch. 

Araifjan 8/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet Shades Of Summer -5.5pts

Total -6.5pts

CHELMSFORD 7.30 

A 5 furlong class 5 dash with 12 runners and 5 of them have led before, I think the 3yo *Bethersden Boy 6/1 will need further to show its true worth and might be worth laying to a small stake in this race. I've got four horses rated very close to each other just outside my top 2, Dark Side Prince 9/1, Expert Opinion 8/1, Street Parade 10/1 and Mashaan 14/1, but the latter might have been flattered by its best rating and is beginning to look like a fluke time where it got towed along in a fast run race. My 2nd top rated is Angle Land 11/2 and being a front running type it could prove very dangerous if allowed an easy lead but I doubt that will happen here and they might battle too hard for the lead and play into the hooves of MICK'S SPIRIT 8/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger nearing the finish, its trainer has a 24% win ratio with their older horses at this course and the apprentice jockey has an 18% win ratio when riding for the stable which points to connections expecting it to run very well here. 

*NR

Mick's Spirit 8/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -8.5pts