5:30 Southwell Racing Tips (25th February)

SOUTHWELL 5.30 

This 8 runner race looks very intriguing, the draw doesn't mean much over this straight 5 furlong course but the only known front runner, Spirit Power is drawn in stall 1 but hasn't any recent c/d form, the trainer has a 17% win ratio and the jockey has a 22% win rate for the stable, Smokey has a time from Lingfield that would make it top rated overall but with no form on this slower surface I'm not sure how well it will go, Qaaraat will run its usual race if in the mood but its not one to rely on, Global Melody has 2 wins and 2 places from its 6 c/d runs and could go well in this race, Dynamo Walt is maybe getting a bit old nowadays but could go ok, I will split my stakes between PASSIONAL 6/4 who seems to have a positive jockey booking and has won its only previous race over this c/d and USTATH 13/2 who has won twice been placed once from just 4 previous c/d attempts, the former will be held up for a late run while the latter will try to track the leaders and then stay on resolutely at the finish 

Passional 6/4 2nd -1pts

Ustath 13/2 7th -1pt

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 7.00

Only 8 runners but another very intriguing race, Zylan trainer stats 16% wins, jockey stats 20% wins, its won 6 and placed 4 times from 13 c/d runs and time wise it makes my top 4 ratings it likes to lead and has the plum stall 1 draw,, Lord Oberon trainer stats 23% wins, jockey 38% wins its won both of its c/d runs but time wise may need to improve to win this race, Rock Sound trainer stats 40% wins, jockey stats also 40% wins and its best time from 2019 makes it my 2nd top rated, Garth Rockett trainer stats 27% wins, jockey 43% wins it hasn't any form over this course and its best time from Chelmsford would make it 2nd top rated overall, Katheefa has relatively poor trainer/jockey stats but has a time from 2019 that puts it in top spot, Alsvinder is the only other known frontrunner in this race, has ok trainer/jockey stats but would need to improve time wise to win, Medicine Jack hasn't any course form and would need to improve for the switch to this surface to win the race, Exceassable trainer stats 24% wins, jockey stats 23% wins and is top rated on just recent c/d times, a lot of connections look as though they fancy their chances in this race I will go with 2 horses to win from off the pace, if i was 100% sure that EXCESSABLE 4/1 was up to this class of race it would be my sole selection but i will have to back a 2nd horse in the shape of ROCK SOUND 7/2 who likes to stay on at the finish of races.

2:00 Lingfield Racing Tips (4th November)

LINGFIELD 2.00 

In this race I could lay one or two but they are not of value but I would lay Chitra if not priced higher than 6/1, Sword Exceed is 2nd top rated on just 2020 c/d times and 3rd top overall plus it is versatile with its racing tactics so could make the frame at a big price, Buy Me Back and Brunels Boy could attempt to set the early pace and the former is my 4th top overall, Lilklan has a time from Chelmsford this year which would make it my 2nd top rated but the top weighted LITTLE BROWN TROUT 6/1 comes out top overall and on this years c/d times and the apprentices 5lb claim could swing things in its favour. 

Little Brown Trout 6/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

LINGFIELD 2.30 

Only 9 runners in this dash but 5 of them have been known to lead before and there is not very much between my top 5 ratings, in fact just 4lbs, Watchable has a its best time from this year and could do best of those coming from off the pace, others that could go well are Just Glamorous and Leodis Dream but my top 2 ratings are both front runners and there is only 1lb between TOP BREEZE 3/1 stall 2 and ROYAL BIRTH 18/1 stall 1 but the former has a 5lb claiming apprentice which then makes it my top rated, both jockeys have good records riding for the stables so I think they could battle in out for the duration of the race and I cannot split them so will back them both and the latter with an each way wager. 

Royal Birth 10/1 (+1pt)

Top Breeze 3/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total: 0pts

KEMPTON 6.20 

In this field of 12 I can see 2 that like to lead, Beyond Equal has the stall 2 draw so could gain control on the rail but is only my 5th top rated but only 5lbs below 2nd top spot so could go well, Moonraker is 4th top but hasn't shown much lately, Dulas is the other possible pacesetter but its best time to make it my 3rd top rated is taken from Chelmsford, in 2nd top spot I've got EL HOMBRE 13/2 but this ones best time was recorded this year over this c/d so has to be considered because my top rated ROCK SOUND 7/2 recorded its best time last year also at Chelmsford and hasn't run here before but could win if taking to this course which is right-handed. 

Rock Sound 7/2 4th (-1pt)

El Hombre 14/1 6th (-1pt) 

Total: -2pts 

KEMPTON 6.50 

I cannot see anything of value to lay in this race and Wild Edric might get things to itself at the front in the early stages and it is my 4th top rated so not many should get involved but I doubt it can do enough to hold on for the win, Embour hasnt shown much lately but is my joint 2nd top rated using a 2019 c/d time, Soldiers Minute is my top rated but only by a solitary lb but once again its using a 2019 time, DESERT DOCTOR 7/2 is joint 2nd top rated and this ones best time was recorded this year which is always a positive it also has good trainer/jockeys stats making me think connections are expecting it to follow up from its win last time out.

Desert Doctor 9/2 4th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt 

Total on the day: -4pts