1:00 Southwell Racing Tips (8th April)

SOUTHWELL 1.00 

(The times recently on this surface have been very slow so any stakes have to be kept low) I expect Aleef to be one of the two horses who set the early pace here and it could do enough to at least make the frame, Quannah and Somewhere Secret have times from elsewhere that would put them in the mix but neither have raced on this surface before, True Hero is the other known front runner and won over c/d last time out and did record a slowish time but that's been the norm recently on this surface so could follow up here and I will use it as a cover bet but my main bet will be on ARZAAK 13/2 who has a time from last year that would see it winning but was behind True Hero last time out here so my stake will be kept low. 

Arzaak 13/2 3rd -1pt

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 1.35

There's 2 known front runners in this field of 10 and to be totally honest there isn't really enough recent data to be sure of the final analysis but i will put forward one that i will be having a small bet on, JAZZ LEGEND 8/1 is one of the 2 possible pacesetters and if getting to the front it could prove hard to peg back, it has the best recent time which is a bonus with how slow this surface is riding and its best time from 2019 would see it having every chance of leading all the way and if big enough in price i would go with an each way bet. 

Jazz Legend 16/1 6th -2pts

Total -2pt

SOUTHWELL 3.15 

This is a tricky looking race, there isn't any I could discard completely although I'm not sure this surface suits Batchelor Boy and could be worth laying but it is one of only two known leading types in this race, if I'm right that would leave Thrave to make the early pace and this one is one of 3 that are my co-2nd favs and recent c/d times, One Hart might also be better on a faster surface, my money will be riding on EXCESSABLE 9/2 who likes track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and the jockey has a good 22% win ratio on the stables older horses. 

Excessable 5/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 4.25 

This race is poor even for a class 6 stakes race and there's only one horse with a recorded time over this c/d in recent times, 2020/21, Brandy Station destroyed its field last time out but as for normal around here lately the time was slow and its best time on Tapeta wouldn't quite be enough to win this race so I will be having a small wager on RED STRIPES 6/1 who can lead but has also been known to stay on strongly at the finish if the leaders fade. 

Red Stripe 6/1 4th -1pt

Total -1pt

CHELMSFORD 7.50 

A six runner race where half of them could lead and they may well set the race up for one of those finishing well nearing the finish, of the front runners Global Prospector may do best as its my 3rd top rated, in 2nd top spot is The Nosey Parker but this one hasn't any form at this course as its best time was at Wolverhampton on a different surface, so I will be backing *JUMIRA BRIDGE 6/1 hoping it can finish strongly here and pick them all up nearing the finish.

*NR 

Total on the day -5pts

5:30 Southwell Racing Tips (25th February)

SOUTHWELL 5.30 

This 8 runner race looks very intriguing, the draw doesn't mean much over this straight 5 furlong course but the only known front runner, Spirit Power is drawn in stall 1 but hasn't any recent c/d form, the trainer has a 17% win ratio and the jockey has a 22% win rate for the stable, Smokey has a time from Lingfield that would make it top rated overall but with no form on this slower surface I'm not sure how well it will go, Qaaraat will run its usual race if in the mood but its not one to rely on, Global Melody has 2 wins and 2 places from its 6 c/d runs and could go well in this race, Dynamo Walt is maybe getting a bit old nowadays but could go ok, I will split my stakes between PASSIONAL 6/4 who seems to have a positive jockey booking and has won its only previous race over this c/d and USTATH 13/2 who has won twice been placed once from just 4 previous c/d attempts, the former will be held up for a late run while the latter will try to track the leaders and then stay on resolutely at the finish 

Passional 6/4 2nd -1pts

Ustath 13/2 7th -1pt

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 7.00

Only 8 runners but another very intriguing race, Zylan trainer stats 16% wins, jockey stats 20% wins, its won 6 and placed 4 times from 13 c/d runs and time wise it makes my top 4 ratings it likes to lead and has the plum stall 1 draw,, Lord Oberon trainer stats 23% wins, jockey 38% wins its won both of its c/d runs but time wise may need to improve to win this race, Rock Sound trainer stats 40% wins, jockey stats also 40% wins and its best time from 2019 makes it my 2nd top rated, Garth Rockett trainer stats 27% wins, jockey 43% wins it hasn't any form over this course and its best time from Chelmsford would make it 2nd top rated overall, Katheefa has relatively poor trainer/jockey stats but has a time from 2019 that puts it in top spot, Alsvinder is the only other known frontrunner in this race, has ok trainer/jockey stats but would need to improve time wise to win, Medicine Jack hasn't any course form and would need to improve for the switch to this surface to win the race, Exceassable trainer stats 24% wins, jockey stats 23% wins and is top rated on just recent c/d times, a lot of connections look as though they fancy their chances in this race I will go with 2 horses to win from off the pace, if i was 100% sure that EXCESSABLE 4/1 was up to this class of race it would be my sole selection but i will have to back a 2nd horse in the shape of ROCK SOUND 7/2 who likes to stay on at the finish of races.

6:45 Southwell Racing Tips (19th February)

SOUTHWELL 6.45 

SPRING ROMANCE 17/2 has won 3 of its 6 previous c/d runs but time wise it needs to improve and has only average trainer/jockey stats but did run well when finishing 2nd last time out I'm not quite confident enough to lay it. 

LORD OBERON 4/1 has pretty good trainer 22% and jockey 33% stats but hasn't any recent c/d form to work with and I had to go back to 2018 to find its last recorded time for this c/d and that is enough to make it 4th top overall. 

REQUINTO DAWN 9/4 looks the one most likely pacesetter hence why I think its been made favourite and has a time from this year that would make it 2nd top rated just for this year and its best from 2020 is good enough for 3rd top overall and should run a big race and could hold on if others fail to repeat their best. 

LILKLAN 12/1 has only one c/d run to its name which resulted in a slow time but has a time from Chelmsford that would make it top rated on overall figures but the poor previous c/d run is a bit off-putting and its not fancied in the betting. 

SCALE FORCE 3/1 has decent trainer-17%/jockey-27% stats but I think it might be a better prospect over a longer distance and needs to improve time wise but is it worth laying, that will depend how fast the early pace is, if they go off at a fast gallop it could play into its hands, a slow early pace and maybe wont catch the front runners. 

GLOBAL HOPE 16/1 hasn't won in its previous 4 c/d runs, it has ok trainer/jockey stats and its another that would need to improve time wise to win this race but not of any value to lay. 

EXCESSABLE 6/1 has good trainer/jockey stats and likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and is top rated on this years c/d times and 2nd spot overall and its only 1lb off top spot. 

BOUNTY PURSUIT 16/1 is another with good trainer/jockey stats but its sole c/d run only produced a slow time and hasn't shown much time wise on any AW track and an outsider. 

SUMMARY: I must give a warning about this course, they have said this surface is coming to the end of its workable life and will be replaced in the spring with the Tapeta surface, all recent times have been very slow and that might be down to the surface’s deterioration. The only older horse handicap with 8 runners, so I'm hoping they all take part, Requinto Dawn if setting the pace could be hard to catch for most being my 3rd top rated, I'm not sure if Lilklan likes this surface or not so the safest bet looks to be EXCESSABLE 6/1 who is only 1lb off top spot and that was recorded this year so is top rated on recent c/d times and its one of many with good trainer/jockey stats.

Excessable 6/1 2nd -1pt

Total on the day: -1pt

5:40 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (2nd February)

SOUTHWELL 5.40 

A field of 8 with 3 of them been known to lead, I would lay Triple Spear if a single figure price and Knowing Glance may need further but this slower surface could help its cause, Samovar is my 3rd top rated and a possible pacesetter but stall 8 isn't ideal over this 6 furlong trip, in stall 1 there is ANOTHER ANGEL 16/1 (EW) who has been known to lead before and at the price I will have an each way bet on it, it hasn't any previous c/d form but has a time from Newcastle that makes it my top rated overall and the trainer has an 18% win ratio at this course, the bottom weight here, EXCESSABLE 6/1 likes to track the leaders and is top rated on just recent c/d times and that's enough for 2nd top spot overall, the trainer has a 20% win record here and the jockey is 21% winners on the stables older horses so i will go with the selections to cover the angles. 

Excessable 6/1 1st (+6pts) (Betfair - to be updated)

Another Angel 16/1 (EW) 3rd (-2pt)

Total: +4pts

SOUTHWELL 6.10 

A class 2 race with nearly 12k to the winner and a poor turnout of just 5 runners even then its not an easy race to analyse, (Lomu 6/1) who might find the distance a bit too far in a fast run race so I would look to lay it, and GABRIAL THE DEVIL 5/2 will look to set the pace and if the latter gets to the front it could prove hard to catch as it is top rated on recent c/d times which is always a positive but its only good enough for 3rd top spot overall, Brian The Snail is 2nd top rated using a Lingfield time and this is its debut on this surface and would need to improve for the switch of surface to win this race, top rated is SHALLOW HAL 10/3 who won for me last time out and has been found a good chance to follow up here and has good trainer/jockey stats making it look like connections are expecting it to win here but i will back them both to cover the angles. 

Shallow Hal 10/3 2nd (-1pt)

Gabrial The Devil 5/2 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bet: Lomu +1pt

Total: -1pts

SOUTHWELL 6.40 

A decent field of 9 for this class 4 race but surprisingly for a 5 furlong dash there's only one known front running type in the race but Agent Shiftwell is in stall 8 which isn't ideal and may use up a fair bit of energy to get across from there and would need to improve a few spots if leading or steal the race from the front, Prince Of Rome is my top rated using a time from Lingfield in 2019 and this is its debut on this surface but the trainers 0-26 record here makes me think its got another target in its sights, Bellevarde has a time from Chelmsford that would make it my 2nd top rated overall but maybe better over further and this slower surface its 1st try over this c/d, might help its cause but isn't fancied in the betting, my money will be riding on MULZIM 3/1 who is my 3rd top rated overall but is top rated on recent c/d times recorded in 2020, it has good trainer/jockey stats which is always a positive and its c/d record is 4 wins and 2 places from just 7 runs proving its really at home here.

Mulzin 3/1 1st (+3pts) (Betfair SP to be updated)

Total: +3pts

Total: +6pts

1:15 Southwell Racing Tips (7th January)

SOUTHWELL 1.15 

Only 7 runners but 3 of them have been known to lead before, I will look to lay (Giogiobbo 4/1) who may need further to shine, my 4th top rated is Duke Of Firenze when taking in the apprentices 7lb allowance, Dark Shot can lead but is versatile with its racing tactics and comes out 3rd on my figures but the jockey does do well for the stable, I think the pace will be set by SLOWMO 5/2 who is my top rated so could possibly lead all the way but it is only 1lb better than Thegreatestshowman 5/2 who is being ridden by an apprentice who has won once from two rides for the stable, so it should be close at the finish but I will stick with my top rated horse. 

Slowmo 4/1 2nd (-1pt)

Lay bet: Giogiobbo +1pt 

Total: 0pts

SOUTHWELL 2.45 

Down to 6 runners for this sprint which is very very competitive and very hard to narrow down to a confident conclusion, I will exclude (Dirchill 4/1 + Ginger Max 15/2) and look to lay them as long as they stay at a single figure price, Samovar is 4th top rated on 2020 times but a 2019 time moves it to 3rd spot overall, EXCESSABLE 7/2 is 3rd best on recent times but 4th overall but has good trainer/jockey stats so it looks as though the connections are expecting it to win, PEARL OF QATAR 5/1 sits in 2nd top spot and oly 1lb below top spot and its another with good trainer/jockey stats so another that they are hoping to win with, PUCHITA 8/1 is top rated and the 3rd one with good trainer/jockey stats and dutching the 3 selections looks the best solution or maybe just rely on the two lays, let the betting will be the deciding factor. For which way you choose to go. 

Excessable 9/2 -1pt

Pearl Of Qatar 5/1 4th (-1pt)

Puchita 12/1 5th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Dirchill +1pt, Ginger Max +1pt

Total: -1pt

SOUTHWELL 3.45 

Not a bad looking apprentice jockeys race, I will look to lay (Lorna Cole 11/2 + Gossip 4/1 + Tilsworth Rose 11/2) as long as they stay at a single figure price, Moveonup is my 2nd top rated on 2020 c/d times and being a front runner it could do enough to make the frame, RED STRIPES 9/2 is another front runner and is my top rated and that is using a 2020 time and could lead all the way here but I expect it will be at the fore of the betting if not favourite, I will be backing it but I will also have a bet on the bottom weight LEO MINOR 14/1 who hasn't ran over this c/d before but does have a fast time from Chelmsford in 2020 and this ones trainer has a 27% win ratio in apprentice races and hopefully it will be an each way price.

Red Stripes 9/2 2nd (-1pt)

Leo Minor 8/1 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Gossip -4pts, Lorna Cole +1pt, Tilsworth Rose +1pt

Total: -4pts

Total on the day:  -5pts