SOUTHWELL 3.40 Div 1
A very poor looking race and only Very First Blade having been known to lead before but this distance does stretch its stamina unless allowed to set a slower pace to keep something in reserve for the finish, Sarabi and Coiste Bodhar have shown glimpses of form so they could make the frame but consistency isn't guaranteed but I do have AUTUMN TONIC 7/2 marked down a few spots clear and this one's trainer has a 14% win rate here which isn't too bad but the jockey has a very good 27% win rate for this stable so the booking looks a positive move and a small bet may pay dividends.
SOUTHWELL 4.40
This looks a nice class 4 race with 13 runners and 6 or 7 of them have been known to lead so it should be a fast and furious race and I can genuinely see them cutting each other's throats trying to get the lead and I think it falls into a hole and set the race up for something coming off the pace, Mushaarif hasn't any form of this course but could quite like it and then become a possible danger, Treaty Of Rome is 3rd top and could make the frame but I'm going with 2 selections in this race, CROSSE FIRE 14/1 starts off as my top-rated 4lbs clear of my 2nd top rated, the trainer has a 10% win ratio here and the jockey a 12% win rate for this stable, my 2nd top rated PIAZON 10/3 is being ridden by a 7lb claiming apprentice which moves it to top spot, the trainer has a good 19% win rate at this course and the apprentice also has a 19% win ratio for this stable which points to connections expecting a big run here, both horses will come from off the pace so may need a degree of luck ensuring a clear run but it is a straight 5 furlongs here so I'm hoping at least one of them gets a run and does the business.
ASCOT 2.00
A lot of people don't realise just how stiff a test it is at Ascot, I've got it 2.4 seconds slower than Newmarket a course most people think of as a stiff course, I'm looking at this because HARRY ANGEL 5/4 has got beaten twice at this course and distance but does seem to have improved since it was beaten by Caravaggio but so has this one so it should be a good race and I expect they will head the market, I will stick with my ratings and go with Harry Angel but only if there's any value in the betting, which there isn't, I personally couldn't back it after those 2 defeats previously here but I also couldn't back against it, so maybe a race to watch and savour.
Harry Angel 4th
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.15
Despite only being a class 5 race it's very intriguing to try and solve because there are no natural front-runners in the race, there are a few horses with negatives against their names but the topweight Powerful Dream could be a danger, it runs on strongly at 5furlongs as though this trip will suit but I'm not convinced but couldn't rule it out completely either, Whitecrest is my 2nd top rated but this horse needs a fast early pace so the leaders are tiring as it comes with a late surge but those up front here might have kept plenty in reserve to repel the late challengers, ROBBIE ROO ROO 11/2 is my 3rd top rated and the jockey who rides this horse regularly has a 4-12 win rate for this small stable so it looks as though they are expecting a good showing in this race whilst my top rated is MAGIC MOMENTS 4/1 who usually likes to track the leaders and stays on strongly at the finish and if it was my horse I would make sure the race run at a decent pace and if not then attempt to lead from start to finish.
MANATEE BAY - usually likes to track the leaders, my top rated and has run well lately.
My Dad Syd - also likes to track the leaders but needs to improve on its last 2 runs.
Mr Orange - may find this distance too far for it.
Athollblair Boy - done its best time this year but not in my top 4.
Samaardi - is only a 3year old but I'm not sure this surface suits it.
Perfect Symphony - may need to drop down in distance to show its true worth.
SEE THE SUN did a time in 2016 that would put it 2nd top on my figures.
Major Crispies - is usually a hold-up type but this surface isn't its best.
Hamish McGongain - a Wolver time would put it joint 4th best hasn't run here at this distance.
Control Centre - only did a slow time at Wolves so this surface may not suit it.
Benjamin Thomas - either wants further or a slower surface, maybe both.
The Amber Fort - hasn't any form here and needs to improve on its Wolverhampton time.
Ace Master - could try to lead but its been out of form and it best in 2015 is relatively slow.
Avenue Of Stars - hasn't any decent form and may prefer a slower surface.
SUMMARY: I always like it when my top speed rating is top or nearly top of the handicap pointing to the opposition being quite weak (that doesn't mean they all win, I wish it was that easy) the draw makes very little difference here Hamish McGonagain would come out joint 4th best on Wolver times alongside Mr Orange despite this one finding it too far if its run at a fast pace, that may not happen here, My Dad Syd is 3rd top rated on a 2016 time and its last 2 runs have been quite poor, 2nd spot is SEE THE SUN 7/1 and it has shown its well being when finishing 2nd in its last 2 starts, it has been known to lead before and if doing so here could be hard to catch, MANATEE BAY 22/1 is my top rated and top of the handicap so the stable have employed a 7lb claiming apprentice, if she's worth her 7lbs claim it moves this horse well clear but shes had 2 rides before for this stable without a winner so if she's not worth her claim and makes the horse 7lbs worse instead of better then it drops to joint top rated so I will go with backing them both with each way bet on both to show a profit whichever one does the business.
BRIGHTON 5.40
A pity there's only 7 runners but there should be a decent pace set with Diable D'Or looking like a natural front-running sort and it could be made to work for the lead by Spirit Of Rosanna and Bella Alissa but I think they will set the race up for a finishing type, Sandfrankskipsgo is my 3rd top rated and Merdon Castle in 2nd top spot and both like to race prominently and track the leaders but in top spot I've got GLACIER POINT 3/1 who is another that usually races quite prominently, the trainer has got a very good 31% win ratio at this course and the jockey has a 17% in rate when riding for this stable so it points to connections expecting a big run from their horse in this race and looks the most likely winner in my eyes.
Glacier Point 4/1 4th
NEWCASTLE 8.45
This is a lowly class 6 apprentice jockeys race which automatically means lower stakes to me, there's five 3year olds which could still improve but I'm not expecting it in this race, Chicago School could potentially be a hidden danger having been racing in Ireland, Kommander Kirkup is my 3rd top rated and it usually tracks the leaders, Andys Girl is my 2nd top rated and can race prominently or be held up but the old timer COMPTON PARK 20/1 is my top rated with a few spots in hand, it likes to be held up in a fast run race and pounce late on and there's a couple of known front-runners in this race so I think it might get its fast run race, the jockey riding has only ridden once before for this stable which resulted in a win so I'm hoping that's a good pointer in this race and at the price I can have a bit of leeway by having each way bet.
Compton Park 20/1 Unp
LINGFIELD 5.05 Div 2
The 1st division of this race at 4.30 is very poor in the fact that there's not enough data to work with so I will be leaving the race alone but I hope I've found a nugget in this division. I've got negatives against 6 of the runners and I'm not sure what to make of Bahamian Heights chances but I won't be backing it and hope it doesn't prove me wrong in this race, Red Stripes and Red Alert have both produced reasonable times at Kempton but will need to improve if BORN TO FINISH 7/1 runs to its best time, its a hold up type and with 3 known possible pace setters it could be run fast enough so that the selection can stay on the strongest at the end to pick them all up, the trainer and jockeys stats are both just over 15% win rates which look positives so it looks the likely winner.
Born To Finish 7/1 3rd
KEMPTON 6.15
A lowly class 6 affair with 10 runners and 3 front-running types and a 4th that can lead but is also versatile and that's Swendab who is my 3rd top rated, ASK THE GURU 7/1 starts off as my top rated and one of the possible pacesetters so has a good chance from stall 3, ARCHIE STEVENS 20/1 is my original 2nd top rated but if the 7lb claiming apprentice is worth the claim it moves this one to top spot so it looks likely the race will be won from the front and using my figures I've got to back both to show a profit whichever one does the business and maybe 2 each way wagers can show a profit.
Ask The Guru 7/1 1st
Archie Stevens 20/1 3rd
Having a day at the races followed by an evening at the casino so please visit our Facebook page to see Eric's tips for Tuesday.
WINDSOR 4.30
A nice class 4 race which looks hard to narrow down very far so I'll just mention my top 4 ratings and selections, BAHAMIAN DOLLAR 18/1 is a possible pacesetter from stall 16 and its 7lb claiming apprentice puts this one firmly in the picture of the possible winner or placed horses, FIELD OF VISION 14/1 also a possible pacesetter from stall 14 and 5lb claiming apprentice makes this one dangerous to dismiss from my reckoning, BALLYMORE CASTLE 16/1 is in stall 13 and my 2nd top rated and could be the one to prosper if they go off too fast in a battle to lead the race but top rated is JERSEY BREEZE 16/1 another possible front-runner and stall 11 is fine especially when its more than capable of changing its tactics if needing to, it's quite tight at the top of my ratings and I'm hoping I can dutch the 4 selections to show a decent profit whichever one does the business and the double-figure prices mean I will go with 4 small each way bets.
Bahamian Dollar 18/1 3rd
Ballymore Castle 16/1 Unp
Field Of Vision NR
Jersey Breeze NR
YORK 3.15
With 20 runners its hard to be very confident but I have found an angle but any stakes will be kept low, surprisingly there's only 2 that have been known to lead before and Al Qahwa looks the most likely pacesetter from stall 12 but this one does seem to like some cut in the ground to show its best and if it's soft going then I won't be betting, Raucous and Hoof It are well weighted on their best times to be my 4th and 3rd top rated, Orions Bow comes out 2nd top and this one likes to race near the front but my top rated is UPSTAGING 12/1 who is a versatile type of its racing tactics which includes leading and it has the prime draw for those tactics in stall 20, so I'm hoping it can lead all the way here or at least long enough to make the frame and the price permits me to go with each way wager but only if the ground dries out to good or firmer.
Upstaging 16/1 7th
NEWMARKET 4.50
This Listed contest looks very hard to analyse as all but one of the runners are 3year olds but I have narrowed it down quite a bit, Pixeleen did a good time when winning last time out but may not be class enough in this race, Quench Dolly is my 4th top rated on speed figures but needs to improve to win in this class, Spiritual Lady and Classical Times look classy enough to run well here and Queen Kindly hasn't anything to prove in this class but has to give weight away here which could tilt the balance in the favour of an improving sort, EARTHA KITT 8/1 is my 3rd top rated and looks a likely contender for at least a place, THAFEERA 3/1 looks the one that's still improving with every run and has won its last 3 races progressing from class 5 into class 4 and its last win was a class 2 race and merits to be given a chance against these slightly classier animals being my top rated but my stakes will not be at full strength but it does look a very nice race to watch if the going is good or faster.
Eartha Kitt 8/1 1st
Thafeera 3/1 Unp
KEMPTON 8.45
Class 4 on the all-weather should be good but there's five 3-year-olds in the race of which 3 could be hidden dangers, Parnassian, Whirl Me Round and Tropical Rock, another possibly hidden danger could be Show Stealer who hasn't run before on this surface at this distance but if transferring its best time on good to firm ground to here it could go well, my 2 against the field are going to be RELATED 10/1 who has a more than respectable time to its name over this course and distance from last year, I'malsoo looking at JAMEERAH 20/1 who also did a very good time last year but this time on this surface but at Chelmsford and if it can do the same there has to be competitive, both of my top 2 need to reproduce something from 2016 and have something to prove so once again my stakes won't be that high but hopefully 2 each way bets will pay dividends.
Meeting abandoned
KEMPTON 5.45
This is quite competitive for a class 7 race and I've got 7 of the 10 runners rated within 6lb's, half the field have been known to lead before, Lady Joanna Vassa has got the prime draw in stall 1 which helps its cause, Justice Rock who is my joint top rated is in stall 2 and may get squeezed out early and I think that will negate the 7lbs the apprentice claims and that could well end its chances but it isn't a front-runner so could stay on if getting a clear run, Joshlee is my 3rd top rated and looks as though a longer trip will suit it better so should be staying on if it gets a clear passage, top rated is BUBBLY BAILEY 25/1 who is a front-running type and stall 3 looks good enough for it to either lead or contest the lead from the off and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch but all of these are quite inconsistent so any stakes will be kept low but I'm hoping a small each way bet will pay some dividends.
Bubbly Bailey 33/1 9th
KEMPTON 6.15
Up to class 4 for this race and again a competitive affair with 5 of the 9 runners having been known to lead before it ought to be a fast run affair, there are conflicting figures for some of these between different courses which muddies the waters, there's only one horse with any course and distance times and that's COME ON DAVE 15/2 who can front run and stall 4 isn't too bad but there is a couple of runners nearer the rails that also like to lead but they might not be quick enough to grab the rails if the selection gets away to a good start, it also comes out top rated using times from Chelmsford which bodes well so if it does get to the front it could lead all the way for victory. At the prices, I might well go with each way double on the 2 races.
Come On Dave 11/1 3rd
KEMPTON 7.55
This class 3 conditions race only has 8 runners but its very hard to know what to expect, the top 4 are all dropped in class to run here but 3 of them look as though a longer trip would suit them better and I haven't got a speed rating for any of the 4 and looking at the tissue prices they will be the 1st 4 in the betting with Dougan is my top rated 5th on the tissue prices, maybe the race is best left alone.
KEMPTON 8.25
RUN WITH PRIDE is 0-11 on the all-weather tracks and is only 1-22 with all its runs including a slow time on this surface and distance at Chelmsford.
BILLYOAKES hasn't any course form and its best from Chelmsford would still leave it a few pounds off top spot so it could possibly make the frame but I'm not sure if it can win here.
FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN comes out as my top rated and they have booked a good 5lb claiming apprentice to aid their chances and from stall 4 it ought to get a good early position from which to attack late on.
NOBLE DEED comes out 2nd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on dourly at the finish so ought to make the frame.
KYLLUKEY is a front-running sort and has got stall 3 but its times put it a few pounds away from the top rated so I doubt this will be its day but never say never.
EVENING STARLIGHT is versatile with its tactics and will need some luck from a stall 12 draw.
EXQUISITE RUBY is a 3year old who could be a possible danger from stall 1 as it likes to track the leaders and then stay on at the finish.
ATLANTA BELLE another 3year old and this one is my 3rd top rated it usually likes to race prominently but stall 11 isn't ideal.
LUCKY CLOVER a versatile sort where tactics are concerned and I will expect it to try and be prominent early from stall 2, it's my 4th top rated so could sneak a place.
FIKHAAR is a possible front-running 3-year-old but has no form here and it needs to improve on its Chelmsford time to win this race.
FRANK COOL can race prominently or be held up and it's just outside my top 4 and stall 9 isn't going to help its chances.
MAGS WELL another 3year old who hasn't made the frame in any of its previous 8 races but would need to improve vastly to win here.
SUMMARY: I quite expect Lucky Clover stall2 and Kyllukey stall3 to vie for the lead which will hopefully allow the selection FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN 7/1 get a good early position just behind the leaders either on the rail or 1 off from the rail and then stay on the stronger at the finish.
Fairway To Heaven 7/1 3rd
