Saturday, 25 March 2017

Saturday's Racing Tips

I'm out tonight visiting the casino so won't have time to upload Eric's post. However, you can help. 

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Friday, 24 March 2017

2:55 Lingfield Racing Tips (24th March) Sprint Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+)

This 9 runner race has 3 known front running types, only one horse I can discount, 3 possibly hidden dangers, and 5 with recorded times, Aragon Knight is my 3rd top rated and a possible front runner from stall 4 and could gain control of the rails, Head Space is my 4th top rated and the jockey booking is usually a positive having a 21% win rate but stall 3 might not be ideal in the make-up of this race, Colourbearer is top rated using 2016 times but only 5th top on 2017 times and the jockey riding is 0-22 for the stable and this 10 year old has never won a race over this course and distance but has got towed along to produce some fast times but not lately, so that leaves BRIDGE BUILDER 6/1 who is my 2nd top rated on all times from this year and last but top rated using just 2017 times, it's another possible front runner and from stall 6 it can either lead or contest the lead and then stay on the stronger at the finish and the jockey has a strike rate of 17% for this stable which points to the connections expecting a big run from their horse in this race.

Bridge Builder 6/1 5th
3:30 Lingfield -
This 9 runner class 6 race is very good for its class and has got 5 of them that have been known to lead before so it could be a fast and furious early pace, I think I can discard 3 of the runners because of negatives against their form and probably a 4th who's best time is a bit below the one above it, that leaves me with 5 to concentrate on and 4 of them are possible front runners, Roy Legacy starts off in 5th spot but could move to 2nd if the 5lb claimer is worth the allowance, Ask The Guru recorded a fast time in 2016 when it looked to be towed along in a fast run race so could be thereabouts but not sure it can win the race but could make the frame and does have the coveted stall 1, Pharoh Jake could be the one to prosper if it all goes wrong for the pace setters but this one usually finds one or two to good for it and the apprentice jockey is 2-26 for the stable, Rojina is my original 2nd top rated but stall 9 isn't going to help its cause, FRANK THE BARBER 10/3 starts off as my top rated and it was from a time recorded this year which is a bonus then looking at the statistics the trainer is 2-7 with his runners here and the top class jockey has only rode for the stable once before and that resulted in a win so everything points to them expecting this one to run a very big race here and it could follow up from its win last time out.

Frank The Barber 10/3 3rd

Thursday, 23 March 2017

1:50 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (23rd March) Sprint Handicap (Class 6) (3yo+)

A field of 11 runners with 4 known pace setters and they are all prominent on my speed figures, plus there's 3 of them being ridden by claimers so they order moves about quite a bit, Doctor Parkes is between 5th top and 2nd top but might get squeezed out early from stall 3, Roaring Rory a front-running type is 4th or 3rd best but stall 10 isn't ideal for it to try and lead from, Pushkin Museum is either 3rd best or 2nd best and is in stall 8, POWERFUL DREAM 13/2 from stall 4 could gain control of the rails and is my original 2nd top rated and if getting to the front could prove hard to catch but NOBLE ASSET 12/1 is my top rated and could be the one to prosper if they go off too fast up front which might happen so I'm going with backing the pair of them to cover both angles and show a profit whichever one wins so a win (unless it drifts to an each-way price) bet on the former and an each way bet on the latter.

Powerful Dream 13/2 2nd
Noble Asset 16/1 7th
8:20 Chelmsford -
Only 7 runners here but not one of them is known as a front-running type so I've no idea where the early pace will come from, Tigserin doesn't look to like this surface, the top2 Saved My Bacon and Fredricka find this distance too far if it's a fast early pace but can't be discarded in this race if it boils down to a 2 furlong dash, Noble Act and Assertive Agent both look capable of improving on what they have shown so far, which leaves me with HIMALAYAN QUEEN 16/1 who is my top rated and they are using a jockey who claims 5lb who has ridden 11 times for the stable and won twice so it looks a positive booking and I will look to have a small wager because of the lack of known pace and a couple of possible dark horses, I do wish there were 3 places up for grabs if I bet each way but with only 2 places I will go with a small win bet.

Himalayan Queen 16/1 6th
8:50 Chelmsford -
Only 8 runners in this race with 2 known to have led before, I've got joint 3rd top rated horses in WELEASE BWIAN 12/1 who if you take off the 7lb its apprentice claims it moves it to top spot and the trainer has a 19% win rate here and the jockey a 12% win ratio, and Secret Asset but this one looks as though it's better over further so should be staying on but maybe a bit too late, both of my top 2 are front runners and both COME ON DAVE 5/1 who is my original 2nd top rated and NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM 9/2 my original top rated, both are dropped in class to run in this race, the latter comes out on top but only just but the trainers record of 1-17 at this track and the jockey 1-12 doesn't inspire confidence but it is capable of winning the race but Come On Dave's trainer has a 21% win ratio here and the jockey a 13% win rate which is more inspiring. I'm looking to back all 3 of them to show a profit whichever one wins the race, so I will be having 2 win bets and one each way bet at the odds available.

Normal Equilibrium 9/2
Come On Dave 5/1 4th

Wednesday, 22 March 2017

7:45 Kempton Racing Tips (22nd March) Handicap (Class 4) (4yo+)

winning racing tips
Not a great class 4 race but I think I've found the winning angle, I've got 5 of the runners marked down with a negative pointer and therefore potential lays, Swiss Cross is a 10-year-old now and shows glimpses of its old form every no and then so can't be discarded but is too unreliable for me to consider backing it, Florencio won last time out over this course and distance and has been raised for that win, Bouclier is my 2nd top rated from a time recorded last year but always looks as though a longer trip would suit it better but should be staying on at the finish, my top rated is UNDER SIEGE 9/2 who was beaten by 3/4length last time out by the topweight but is weighted to turn that form around and it did a time last year a lot faster so if reverting to its old form it would have every chance and in this race it's the only one known as a front-running type and if getting an uncontested lead it could quite easily lead from start to finish here.

Under Siege 9/2 3rd


8:45 Kempton - (Divison 1)
A 9 runner class 6 race with 2 that have been known to lead before and I've marked Louis Vee from stall 3 a potential danger especially if it gets an uncontested lead but the jockey booking doesn't look a positive move, I'm hoping Blistering Dancer makes sure they go a good pace at the front of the race, then I've got negatives of one sort or the other against every other runner apart from my top rated but even so Krazy Paving who is in form lately doesn't like this course as much as some others but still comes out 3rd best, I've got Little Indian in 2nd spot and this one looks as though a longer trip will suit so should be staying on at the finish but top of my figures is NASRI 13/2 who usually races prominently and from stall 2 should be able to get a good early position from which to attack and stay on the stronger at the finish of the race, the trainer has only ever had any all-weather winner at this course but the top jockey booked has ridden for her 20 times before today without winning so any stakes will be kept on the small side.

Nasri 13/2 1st
9:15 Kempton - (Division 2)
The 3rd 9 runner sprint of the day and this 2nd division doesn't look any better, in fact, it looks ten times worse but there just might be an angle in the race, I have negatives marked down about 8 of the runners and only one horse with a recorded time even then that was only just inside my bottom times for my graphs, so the topweight WHALEWEIGH STATION 8/1 has to be my selection and the angle is that it's the only known front runner in the field and stall 2 is ideal for it to attempt to lead all the way, they have employed a 7lb claimer to ride the horse to take some weight of its back but she has ridden 11 times before for the stable without success but hopefully this time she can get smartly away from the stalls to lead all the way but it is such a poor race once again any stakes will be on the low side of things.

Whaleweigh Station 8/1 7th

Tuesday, 21 March 2017

5:00 Southwell Racing Tips (21st March) Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+)

Racing Tips - Eric Winner
BRING ON A SPINNER is my 2nd top rated and can either lead or track the leaders and stall 6 isn't too bad in the make-up of this race, the trainer has a 20% win rate and the jockey 17% win rate so it looks as though the connections are expecting a big run.
RED TOUCH hasn't any distance form and it looks to me as though this trip will be too short for it but the trainer does well here with a 21% win rate and the 3lb claiming apprentice wins 15% of the time but it's not for me in this race.
CROSSE FIRE my 3rd top rated changed its usual running style to lead all the way last time out over this course and distance and was very close to its best time over this trip but strictly on a form line its held by the topweight and if the early pace is really fast it may struggle to stay the trip.
AFRICAN BLESSING is my top rated from a time recorded last year and this 4 year old has only had 4 runs in its life and seeing it won and did its best time 1st time out for the year says it may not need this run for fitness but it's strange that it hasn't run since August so may have had problems but could also just as easily win here.
DARK PROFIT hasn't any form at this distance on this surface but did run a fastish time here over 7 furlongs and usually races prominently so could be a danger.
COISTE BODHAR has only recorded slow times at this course and distance as it seems to prefer a shorter trip and may also need this run to gain fitness like it has other years.
EBONY N IVORY hasn't any surface form and it's a front-running sort and its got the coveted draw in stall 1 so could try to lead all the way and has done well with some cut on turf so could go well on this surface and can't be dismissed from my calculations.
BIG AMIGO is usually a hold-up type but can run prominently and is my 4th top rated but is held by Crosse Fire and may struggle to win this race.
MERSHARDAL has no recent surface form bu its times from 2015 when running well here were all on the slow side and this surface may be against it in a fast run race.
BARON RUN hasn't shown any form worthwhile since 2014 in six runs and missed the whole of 2016 and I'm not sure if it's capable of coming back to anywhere near its old form.
SUMMARY: I think the two top rated horses could have this race between them but I have also got two marked down as possible hidden dangers so my stakes will be kept low, if BRING ON A SPINNER 7/1 can either get to the front or sit just behind the leader it could be hard to catch but if AFRICAN BLESSING 5/1 can reproduce its best from its 1st run of the year last year it would be the selection but I will have to go with backing them both to show a profit whichever one does its best.

Bring On Spinner 7/1 6th
African Blessing 5/1 7th

Monday, 20 March 2017

5:30 Kempton Racing Tips (20th March) Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+)

Racing Tips
ATHASSEL has won its last 3 races and the female jockey has ridden it to 2 of those wins but it might now be in the hands of the handicapper but it will be staying on at the finish and could easily make the frame and a horse in form is always a bonus.
NEZAR has only had 1 run here where it missed the kick and made no show at all but taking Chelmsford times, a course with the same surface, it comes out top rated and if taking to the course could improve on its last show but stall 10 isn't ideal.
PANTHER PATROL doesn't look as though this surface suits it very much and its best time from Chelmsford is quite slow, the jockey has ridden 12 times before for the stable without a win and I can't see any reason why it should alter in this race.
MUATADEL is from the stable of Ed Dunlop and owned by one of the big Arab owners so it's a bit strange to see it running here, it's still a maiden after 7 attempts and its one handicap run was in a class 5 race like this at Carlisle, it might need this run for fitness, it's not for me in this race but it could be a hidden danger as it has been known to lead before and is in stall 1.
HIGHER COURT'S trainer has only had 2 wins in her career so far and they have both been at this course, the jockey has ridden for her elsewhere without success but this is his 1st ride for her at this course, this one should be staying on strongly at the finish and with 4 possible known front runners it could be the fast pace this one needs to aim at to win a race.
BUSH WARRIOR hasn't done a good time at this course recently but has done a good time on this surface at Lingfield so if it can carry that form over to this course it could have some chance and it has got a top jockey riding who is 2-8 for this stable but its not for me until it shows it can handle this course as good as it can Lingfield but it has got stall 3 and for a possible front runner it's a good draw but I'm not sure it will be able to lead in this race.
K'GARI SPIRIT hasn't run on this surface at this distance before and all its runs on this surface have been over 5 furlongs but it did win last time out at Wolverhampton at this distance but it's times even over 5 furlongs have only been in mid range and would need to do more to win this race but never say never as it is in good form at the moment.
CLASSIC PURSUIT hasn't run since October and usually needs at least 1 run for fitness before it gets competitive and stall 11 isn't going to be ideal and I'm not looking for this horse to be involved at the finish but I may be interesting to see which jockey the stable uses in this race.
KING OF SWING is a horse that looks as though this surface doesn't suit it and its times over this course and distance have been on the slow side so I'm very doubtful if this horse will or can be involved in the finish.
MAJOR VALENTINE starts off as my 3rd top rated but with the 7lb claiming apprentice making his debut for the stable moves it into 2nd spot, its a possible front runner and stall 2 is plenty good enough if it's fast enough to gain control of the rails.
WANEEN has only recorded slow times at this course and distance and its times at Chelmsford are only slightly better and looks as though this distance is really a bit too far for it and I don't think this race will be run to suit it but the jockey booking is usually a positive but not enough for me to rate its chances.
INDIAN AFFAIR was the one that started off as my 2nd top rated but now relegated to 3rd spot it could have a chance of making the frame again but only managed to win once in 2016 but a few 3rd and 4th place finishes it's not a horse to back heavily and not for me in the search for the winner of this race.
SUMMARY: There are four possible pace setters in this race in stalls 1,2,3, and 6 and maybe the one to do best of these could be MAJOR VALENTINE 12/1 in stall 2 and if it does get to the front could prove hard to catch but my top rated HIGHER COURT 12/1 does need a fast pace to aim at as those ahead fade and this one stays on strongly at the finish but it may need a bit of luck to get a trouble free run from stall 5 but if managing to tuck in just behind the pace setters on the rails it could stay on to challenge late but I'm looking to back them both each way to cover both angles and show a profit whichever one gets the run of the race.

Major Valentine 12/1 1st
High Court 12/1 4th

Friday, 17 March 2017

7:15 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (17th March) Sprint Handicap (Div I) (Class 6) (3yo+)

Of the 13 runners in this race there's only 2 that have been known to lead before and of them is Pillar but this one is having its first run in England so I've no idea how good it is but its still a maiden after 20 runs in Ireland, that leaves Swendab who also can lead and its well housed in stall 4 but is a better horse over 5 furlongs so it will want to set a slow early pace to stay the extra furlong but it's not in my top 3, Castlerea Tess is my 3rd top rated but may prefer a longer trip and if there's not a fast early pace it might get outpaced if it becomes a 2 furlong dash and the same applies to Tasaaboq my 2nd top rated while on top of the pile I've got DREAM ALLY 4/1 who raced twice over 5 furlongs to gain fitness and then won last time out at Chelmsford when raised to 6 furlongs and has a good chance here to follow up here and does like this surface.

Dream Ally 5/1 6th
7:45 Wolverhampton - (Division 2)
Again 13 runners but this time there's 5 that have led before and maybe Broughton's Fancy from stall 2 may gain control on the rails but it's only done slow times, Louis Vee is my 3rd top rated and is versatile with its running style but from stall 12 it may need a degree of luck but is usually staying on at this distance this also applies to my 2nd top rated Ambitious Boy but I'm hoping my top rated MR CHUCKLES 6/1 from stall 3 can follow the front runner one stall inside of it to get a good early position from which to attack and stay on the stronger at the finish.

Mr Chuckles 13/2 3rd

Wednesday, 15 March 2017

5:45 Chelmsford Racing (16th March) Maiden Auction Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 5) (3yo)

Racing tips
(AMATEUR RIDERS)
Not a race to get too involved in but I'm hoping there's some value in the race, of the 9 runners theres 3 that have led before, Beau Mistral is 2nd best on course times and Commanche top rated but the jockey riding the latter is 0-5 for the stable but the stable has got a 22% win rate, SPACE WAR 4/1 is top rated using Lingfield times and the trainer has a 32% win ratio and the jockey is 3-6 for the stable which hopefully means they expect a big run from it, my 2nd top rated using Kempton times is Athassel who has won its last 2 races but both were slow run affairs and that might not happen here especially when the top rated Major Valentine ** is a front-runner and the best drawn on them in stall 2 so if getting to the front could be hard to catch, I will be backing both to show a profit whichever one wins but stakes are always kept low in amateur races.

Space War 4/1 3rd
Major Valentine is now a non-runner so I will be going with just 1 small bet on SPACE WAR 4/1.
6:15 Chelmsford - (Division 1)
Of the 10 runners half have been known to lead before and the pace will be key to the race but I'm struggling to narrow it down to a single selection, Hurricane Alert is a possible front runner and 3rd best on Kempton times but the trainer and jockey have poor statistics so not for me but it could make the frame, Zebelini is 2nd best using the same times from Kempton who is another possible front runner and stall 3 isnt a bad draw but top rated is FABULOUS FLYER 100/30 who has a few spots in hand but this hasnt run before over this course and distance but if taking to it could easily win and is in good form lately, Mighty Zip is 2nd top on course and distance times but may prefer further and is a few pounds behind my top rated YISTY 16/1 who is a possible frot runner and stall 2 may give it the chance to take control of the race from the front on the rails but I will be backing them both, a win bet at 100/30 and an each way bet at 16/1 to show a profit whichever one of the two does the business.

Yisty 25/1 8th
Fabulous Flyer 9/2 3rd
6:45 Chelmsford - (Division 2)
Of the 10 runners in this division there's 6 this time that has led before and once again there's conflicting data from the 3 courses with this surface, the topweight Swendab comes out best on times recorded at Kempton and it is a fast time, Roys Legacy another front-running type comes out 2nd best at both Lingfield and this course so could make the frame but may find one or 2 too good for it, Rojina is top rated using Lingfield times but has only recorded a slow time at this course and distance, then Bubbly Bailey is only 3rd best on Lingfield times but has quite a few spots in hand on times from this course and its a front runner and could from stall 4 gain control of the rails and then prove hard to catch, I've got to go with something and it looks like a small bet on BUBBLY BAILEY 7/1 hoping it can lead all the way, the way this race is made-up.

Bubbly Bailey 12/1 2nd

7:15 Chelmsford -
Saving the best for last this class 3 race looks a lovely race, there's 5 of the 11 runners that have been known to lead before and it looks most likely to be won from the front, Silvanus is my 4th top rated from stall 3 is ok for a front runner but Brother Tiger could gain control of the rails from stall 1 if its fit enough on its 1st run of the year and looking back it usually needs its 1st run for fitness, if they do go too fast up front and all fall into a heap Dynamo Walt could be the one to prosper if it can get a clear run from stall 7 with fast starters either side of it and my top rated BOSHAM 16/1 from stall 6 ought to be able to get either to the front or at least a very prominent position, its had 3 runs this year its 1st was over course and distance when it looked like it needed the run and then its last 2 runs have been over 6 furlongs and this drop back down to the minimum distance looks a good move and has a good chance here to get back to winning ways and I'm a bit surprised at the available price and have to go each way at the odds.

Bosham 16/1 8th

4:35 Southwell Racing Tips (15th March) Handicap (Class 6) (4yo+)

racing tips
This is a poor class 6 race with just 8 runners and Scott Dixon the trainer has 3 entries but if running on their merits only one of them is of any significance and that is SPOWARTICUS 9/2 who showed an indication of coming back to form last time out when finishing 2nd and it didn't ever get to the front that day but it's the only known front runner in this race and if it does get to the front it could prove very hard to catch and comes out 2nd best on my time figures, the only other 2 with recorded times are Viva Verglas who won last time out and carries a 6lb penalty in this race and FORTINBRASS 11/4 who finished 1 length behind it in 3rd place and that 6lb penalty is enough to reverse the placing and the latter has run faster last year so if back to the form of 2016 it has every chance here but Spowarticus could pinch this race from the front if getting an uncontested lead so I will have to go with backing them both to show a profit whichever one does the business but stakes will be kept low.

Fortinbrass 11/4 9/2
Spowarticus 8/1 5th
7:20 Newcastle -
Another class 6 race with 9 runners this time but only 1 front runner again and that's Entertaining Ben but its 0-9 on the all-weather and its time doesn't put it in my top 4, in 3rd spot is Windforpower who has shown its very close to full fitness this year and the same applies to my 2nd top rated Indian Pursuit but my top rated is Groundworker but it hasn't run since the end of November so may need this race for fitness, both Groundworker 1-37 and Windforpower 1-36 have poor trainer statistics which puts me off them so leaves me with INDIAN PURSUIT 3/1 who has got good trainer and jockey statistics which point to them expecting it to run a big race here and it is a good opportunity for it to get back to winning ways.

Indian Pursuit 9/2 2nd
8:50 Newcastle -
The 3rd class 6 race of the day and 10 runners in this race with once again only the 1 known front runner in the 3 year old Lady Cristal who is my 5th top rated but with an uncontested lead and its age it could still have improvement to come and it is fit with 3 runs this year, Spirit Of Zebedee is my 4th top rated from a time recorded this year and has good trainer and jockey statistics, in 3rd spot is Ambitious Icarus with decent trainer and jockey statistics and both like to track the leader, my 2nd top rated is Disclosure but the trainer is 0-7 here and the jockey 0-9 for the stable which doesn't fill me with confidence but my top rated is Epeius but this one is 0-24 for the trainer here and 0-18 for the jockey when riding for this stable, so I'm not sure how to go in this race and it's maybe best left alone.


Monday, 13 March 2017

2:25 Southwell Racing Tips (14th March) Handicap (Class 6) (4yo+)

This is a dire class 6 race, I can only write a summary because for most of the horses there's very little if anything to write about them, I do prefer when I have something to say about every horse but I can only write what there is and of course other days there's just too many runners or races to write up a summary of everything. Anyway for this race with 9 runners I've got negatives against 7 of them for one reason or another, the topweight Borough Boy is dropped in class so could be dangerous but it might need a longer trip but if these are poor in a ratio with itself it could be good enough but I'll stick with the proven, I've got 3 marked down as possible front runners but reasons against why 2 of them may not lead which leaves me with OSCAR'S JOURNEY 13/2 who is one of the front runners and it's been drawn in stall 9 so luckily this is a straight 5 furlongs so it won't matter as much as if there had been a bend to negotiate, I'm hoping it can get to the front and then lead all the way to victory.
Oscar's Journey 12/1 6th
3:05 Southwell -
VALLEY OF FIRE is dropped in class so could be dangerous if taking to this surface but the trainer is 0-13 here and the jockey 0-9 for the stable.

ESCALATING another dropped in class so another possible danger and the trainer has a 21% strike rate and the jockey 25% for this stable so cannot be easily discarded.

CAPTAIN LARS may be better over a shorter trip so not for me in this race.

BAHAMIAN DOLLAR hasn't any course form but either wants a shorter trip or a different surface or maybe even both.

SEPTEMBER ISSUE hasn't any course form but looks like a shorter trip suits it better but has got good trainer and jockey statistics.

AMONG ANGELS could possibly improve on what its shown here so far and needs to plus it's usually held up and may get there a bit too late.

BRING ON A SPINNER is my 2nd top rated on a time done this year and its 3lb claimer could move it to the top spot and the trainer has a 17% win rate and the jockey.

VROOM is the only known front runner in the field and being ridden by a 7lb claimer who has won twice from 5 rides for the stable which moves it from 3rd to top spot on my figures.

VALLARTA hasn't any recent course and distance form but even its best from 2015 wouldn't be good enough.

CROSSE FIRE looks a better horse over a shorter trip but has done a good time but looks to have been towed along in a fast run race.
SUMMARY: The top 2 in the handicap are both dropped in class so could be dangerous so any stakes will be kept on the low side of things, after taking off any jockeys claims Crosse Fire is in 3rd top spot but may not stay the trip if there's a fast early pace, Bring On A Spinner is moved to 2nd spot and could be staying on at the finish and has done its best time this year so its fit and in form but top spot goes to VROOM 8/1 who has got good trainer and jockey statistics and if getting an easy lead could prove very hard to catch and I can see it trying to lead all the way from stalls to the line.

Vroom 10/1 4th