Wednesday, 27 September 2017

9:10 Kempton Racing Tips (27th September)

Racing Tips
Tigserin --- has only produced slow times and doesn't look to like this surface and in my eyes will be a lay if there's any value in its price.
Storm Lightning--- has only poor surface form and looks as though a shorter distance would also help its cause this is its 1st run this year so may need it for fitness and I think another one to lay.
Monarch Maid --- is 0-6 on all-weather tracks and another one that looks to be happier over a shorter trip so another possible lay.
Who Told Jo Jo --- this one is 0-8 on the all-weather and also looks as though a shorter distance would enhance its chances and maybe a lay but being a 3year old it could still improve.
Rapid Rise is an 11 race maiden who hasn't shown much form lately but I still think it will be better over further so another possible lay in my opinion.
TRIPLE DREAM --- 25/1 is top rated but in a fast run race it does struggle to stay the distance, the 7lb claimer is 0-2 for this stable which also puts me off to some degree but it is capable of winning this race if it puts its all into it.
KRAZY PAVING --- 11/1 is my 2nd top rated despite this not being its favourite surface(that's more to do with the poor opposition than this one's performances) and usually tracks the leaders.
Something Lucky --- is another possible lay, it may find this distance a bit too far and prefers other surfaces.
ATLANT BELLE --- 2/1 this 3year old is my 3rd top rated and the only known front-runner in the race then add on the luck of getting the prime draw in stall 1 things do look in its favour, both the trainer and the jockey have decent stats to make me think connections are expecting a big run here and I'm thinking it will try and could well succeed in leading from start to finish.
Tifl is 0-6 on the all-weather tracks and may need a longer trip to show any worthwhile form and maybe another to lay.
Treacherous---is a 3year old whos shown only poor form but this is its handicap debut so could be dangerous but I think it might get outpaced and need a longer trip.
Whiteley---has only produced slow times at this distance and may need further in time to show its best.
SUMMARY: I will go with backing all 3 highlighted selections but I will be having my bigger bet on the 3year old in stall, 1 but am I bit annoyed is such a small price but it could lead all the way here, and then back the other pair each way just in case they come and spoil things for the leader and they could also add to the profits if making the frame.

Tuesday, 26 September 2017

5:15 Lingfield Racing Tips (26th September)

Racing Tips
This doesn't look a good race and half the field is made up of 3year olds who can improve without warning so any stakes have to be kept in check, Entertaining ben hasn't shown much timewise recently but a time from 2015 would make it 3rd best but I couldn't be confident it will show its best here, 2nd top using a Kempton time would be SnooIzy Sioux but its time at this course has been slow so not really sure what to expect but it could feasibly make the frame but again I wouldn't be confident, both of them have been known to lead before so could be thereabouts in the race but my top rated ASK THE GURU 11/1 is also a front-running type and if this one does get to the front it could lead all the way but I won't be going in very heavily with some unproven qualities in the race but at least at the price I can go with an each way bet.

Ask The Guru 11/1 8th
In this field of 11 there's 7 that have been known to lead before, Krystalite is 4th best in stall 7 and a possible pacesetter, Shackled N Drawn I my 3rd best and might be the one to prosper if cut each other's throats vying for the lead and that could happen to some of these, Red Stripes is my 2nd top rated and has got stall 2 which could help if its fast enough away to grab the rails but the horse drawn on its inside, although not in my top 4, is also a front-running sort, sitting at the top of my list is YOU'RE COOL 9/1 who has been running fairly consistently lately and if either getting to the front or gaining a good early position from which to attack is capable of winning this race and the booking of the 3lb claiming apprentice looks a positive move seeing as he's got a 24% win rate for this stable so I'm hoping this will be when it gets back to winners circle and at the price I'm thinking it has to be an each-way investment.

You're Cool 9/1 1st

This is a dire race and probably best left well alone especially when all of my top 3 haven't a positive of any sort against their name. Tasaaboq my 3rd best but may prefer further not sure of the jockey booking Fever Few 2nd top usually tracks the leaders but trainer is only 1-20 here DOCTOR PARKES 14/1 would be a few spots clear but the 7lb claiming jockey is 0-7 for the stable but maybe that's just coincidence and if so the claim puts it even further clear and maybe worth a small wager, I say small because there no known front-runners in the race and the selection doesn't like a fast and furious early pace so this race just might be run to suit it but I'm hoping and each way wager will pay dividends.

Doctor Parkes 25/1 6th

Monday, 25 September 2017

4:35 Kempton Racing Tips (25th September)

Barracuda Boy is top using a Lingfield time but it hasn't run here before but could be dangerous if taking to the course, Sign Of The Kodiac is a possible front-runner and has the best of the draw in stall 4 so could be dangerous if getting an easy lead its also my 2nd top rated using Lingfield times, Tropics and Goodwood Crusader could both be hidden dangers, Lightning Charlie is 3rd top using course and distance times and has been known to lead but is in stall 11, Gentlemen is 2nd top rated using a time from 2016 but not so far this year so I'm not sure what to expect here, STELLARTA 13/2 is top rated but it's not a race to be betting too heavily if at all.

Stellarta 8/1 3rd

Saturday, 23 September 2017

5:40 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (23rd September)

Racing Tips
Of the 11 runners 5 of them have been known to lead before and it's hard to know exactly how this race will pan out, Swendab is a front-runner from stall 2 but if taken on for the lead it can throw in the towel,Tasaaboq starts off as 4th best but its claimer moves it up to 3rd spot this one finds the trip a bit on the short side and will be staying on strongly if it gets a clear run, ROY'S LEGACY 20/1 is a capable front-runner and is in stall 5 and starts off as my top rated, DAVID'S BEAUTY 9/2 can also lead or sit on the rails just behind the leaders from its stall 1 draw and is my 3rd top rated, Elusivity starts off in 2nd spot and this ones claimer moves it to top spot but the apprentice is 0-13 for the stable which puts me off, so I'm going with the race being won from the front or at least those racing prominently and I will split my bet between the 2 of them but maybe lean to the horse drawn in stall 1.

Roy's Legacy 20/1 5th
David's Beauty 9/2 6th
There's just 2 in this race that has been known to lead before but Don't Blame me is stuck out in stall 12 which won't help its cause but with only 1 other vying for the lead it could get across but even then it hasn't done enough for me to think it can win, Miracle Garden is my 3rd best but this one finds the trip a bit too far if it's a fast run race which it might just might be, I've got joint top rated with Newstead Abbey who is in stall 4 and it does like to track the leaders and could get a good position on the rails just behind the leaders and then stay on strongly but my top rated is MAJOR VALENTINE 6/1 who is the other possible front-runner and it's in stall 3 so should have every chance to get away and grab control of the rails up front and then prove hard to catch.

Major Valentine 15/2 Unp

There's 3 known front-runners in this 2nd division and 2 of them are drawn in the 2 inside stalls and Qatari Riyals is my 5th top rated and being a 3year old it could still improve if getting an easy lead but Higher Court will also vie for the lead and make sure its a fast early pace, Magic Moments is well weighted and 3rd best on my figures but always looks as though a longer trip would suit it better so should be staying on at the finish, Born To Finish is 2nd top and a hold up type but it's a strange jockey booking as he's 0-8 for this stable which puts me off its chances of winning here, my top rated is also a hold up type and if the 3year old BIG LACHIE 25/1 gets a clear run from stall 9 it should be staying on the stronger at the finish and hopefully strong enough to get back into the winners enclosure and looks the value for money each way bet in the race.

Big Lachie 25/1 7th

Wednesday, 20 September 2017

Eric Winner - Even When I'm on Holiday

I'm going on holiday for a few days - Yarmouth's Eastern Festival. I am taking my laptop so maybe making a post or two but you will be able to read blog posts for the next few days by visiting Eric Winner Facebook page. Back to normal come Friday. Sorry for any inconvenience. 

Tuesday, 19 September 2017

New bookmaker levies are good news for racing fans and gamblers

As the racing season nears its end for another year, it is a good time to look back on a key piece of legislation that slipped quietly into existence back in the spring, but could have a profound impact on those who love placing bets, whether online or at the track.

At the end of April, a new levy on bookmakers came into force that required them to plough 10% of their profits back into the sport. If you thought this was something that was already in place, the devil is in the detail. It now applies to all bookmakers, whether they are based on track or online, and critically, onshore or overseas.

More online gambling options than ever

The move is an example of that rarest phenomenon – law and regulation reacting to changes in technology, specifically in the form of online casinos and betting sites. The truth is that more than 50 percent of betting on horse races takes place online, and while many such sites are UK based, a large number are not.

With the growing proliferation of online casinos and sports betting websites, users can be at a loss as to which to choose and regulatory bodies can end up losing revenue in taxes and levies. The first problem is a relatively easy one to overcome. Sites such as provide a useful rundown of the different options and the pros and cons of each. The second issue was potentially a more complex one, as it required support from the EU in order to enforce the proposed levies.

EU Support

The EU does not always get the best press, and there was widespread concern at the beginning of the year that it would not play ball and the legislation would face interminable delays. However, to the surprise of many, clearance was received from Europe in April, confirming that as far as EU lawmakers were concerned, the levy is compatible with the appropriate state aid rules.

Good news for the sport

The levy has always been in place for UK bookmakers, but with the rise of online betting and the internet’s disregard for international borders, the sport’s revenue has fallen from £100 million per year ten years ago to just £50 million in 2016.

Conservative estimates from within the industry suggest that is has been missing out on around £30-40 million due to the so-called "offshore loophole." 

The increased revenue will be targeted at increasing prize money for the middle and entry levels of the sport, as well as initiatives to protect the welfare of both runners and riders.

Philip Freedman is Chairman of The Horsemen’s Group. He said the news was "fantastic" for everyone involved in British racing.  BBC racing pundit Cornelius Lysaght said that the levy provides "much-needed financial stability” for the British horseracing industry.

As the 2017 racing season comes to a close, the only thing remaining is for us to wait with bated breath while the industry completes its final accounts, to find out what change in revenue the new levy has really generated.  

Monday, 18 September 2017

3:45 Brighton Racing Tips (18th September)

Racing Tips
Only 6 runners and there's 2 known front-runners in the race and they are my joint top rated horses so I think it will be a battle from start to finish between HIGHLY SPRUNG 11/2 and FANG 8/1, the former trainer has a 22% win rate and this course and the jockey has an 18% win rate for this stable so that looks positive also its best time was recorded at Epsom so the undulations of this course won't hold any fears but the trainer of Fang has a 3-11 win ratio here but I'm not sure of the jockey booking as he's 0-2 for the stable so not really enough to say it's a definite negative, I will go with backing them both but slightly favour Highly Sprung.
Only 8 runners and there's not much between my joint 5th topped pair and my 2nd top-rated horse, the 3year old Stringyback Creek is my 2nd top rated but mainly because it's the bottom weight and is 0-16 on turf but has finished 2nd twice so could make the frame, ZIPEDEEDODAH 4/1 starts off in 4th spot but its 5lb claiming apprentice moves it into 2nd spot and this one is the one I think will be the pacesetter but maybe wouldn't want it to be good to firm ground, my top rated is PEARL NOIR 10/1 who is versatile with what tactics it deploys in a race and that does include leading but it maybe will need to be a little more patient here and follow the front-runners and stay on the stronger at the finish. If the going is good to firm I will go with just the one bet but if only good going then I would have to go with backing both selections to cover both angles of a front-runner and a strong finishing type.

Saturday, 16 September 2017

1:30 Chester Racing Tips (16th September)

Pro Gambler
I doubt the going will be anything but soft but just in case it is I'm going to post the 2 races I've analysed but if it is soft please ignore my ramblings. As we all know it's hard to back anything drawn too high at this course and this race looks a strange affair as most of those I think might have a good chance have got poor draws and the tactics of horses drawn low suddenly change but I've got both horses are drawn in stall 1 and 2 as front-running types so the rest of the field may have to come wide of this pair but neither of them is in my top 4 ratings so I assume at least 1 horse, maybe even more, will catch them but which ones its hard to say. My top rated is SILVANUS 20/1 but stall 10 may prevent it from winning but I have got it a few spots ahead of the rest and this 12-year-old is still capable of winning races like it showed at Musselburgh 4 runs ago and could be worth a small each way bet, I've got joint 2nd top rated with Bondi Beach Boy who has been known to lead but stall 12 might not be ideal plus this its 1st run of the year so may need this run for fitness but the other 2nd top rated is DESERT ACE 7/2 who is drawn in stall 3 and can be held up or track the leaders and it might be able to get onto the rails just behind the leaders and then have a good position from which to attack late on, my stakes will be kept low and I will go with backing them both.

Desert Ace 9/2 2nd
NR: Silvanus
Not a great class 6 race but there are 2 possible known pacesetters in the field of 12 but neither of them, Knockamany Bends, who likes some cut in the going, and Red Forever, who has a poor strike rate with 1 win in 41 races on grass, have recorded times fast enough to register on my graphs. Thornaby Princess is my 3rd best but either wants a longer trip or a fast early pace and then rely on the front runners fading badly but I doubt they will go off fast enough for its stamina to kick in enough for it to win the race but it could make the frame, See Vermont is my 2nd top rated and the trainer has a good 20% win ratio here but this one needs good to firm going to show its best and I doubt it will be that fast which leaves me with my top-rated horse SALVATORE FURY 14/1 who did its best time last year at Hamilton when it was held up for a late run so this race might be run to suit its style and has run a time this year just 5lbs lower than its best which would still keep it in top spot, then to help its cause they are using a good 5lb claiming apprentice, my stakes won't be at full strength but I'm going with an each way bet at the price.

Thursday, 14 September 2017

2:00 Sandown Racing Tips (15th September)

Horse Racing Tips

Monumental Man – has been known to lead but timewise may struggle against some of these. 

Lydia's Place – another possible pacesetter and 3rd best on my figures. 

Big Lachie – may want further so should be staying on at the finish. 

Coastal Cyclone – hasn't any distance form not sure if this drop in trip will work but it could do.  

Melonade – may need further but wouldn't dismiss its chance completely Jashma – 4th top rated from a time recorded at this course and distance. 

Zipedeedodah – a possible leader but doesn't the going to be too fast. 

Merdon Castle – may need further if its good to firm and just outside my top 4. 

Taajub – hasn't got the times to worry these if it's fast going but could feature if no better than good.  

Dashing Poet – may need good to firm to show its best but has got the best time.  

Broadhaven Honey – is my 2nd top rated and another that could set the pace. 

SUMMARY: I doubt the going will be firm enough for DASHING POET 12/1 to show its true form but if it is good to firm it will be my selection, if Broadhaven Honey gets to the front it ought to be hard to catch but did fold quickly last time out and hasn't been in the same form this year as when it set its best time at Windsor last year so I can't put it forward as a selection but never say never as it could make the frame if it springs back to form, LYDIA'S PLACE 14/1 is my 3rd top rated and a front-running type and if getting to the front it could be hard to catch for most of these, so I'm going with backing 2 in this race with each way bets to cover both angles of a front-runner and a strong finisher. 

Lydia's Place 14/1 8th 
Dashing Poet 12/1 6th 

4:45 Epsom Racing Tips (14th September)

EPSOM 4.45
The 3year old Bella Alissa is 3rd top rated but the trainer is 1-24 at this course and despite it looking a good jockey booking he has, in fact, got 1-19 win rate for the stable which is enough to put me off but never say never, Amood is 4th best but the interesting statistic here is that the jockey has a 32% win rate for this stable and it should be staying on strongly at the finish and if there's a fast early pace it could capitalise if the front runners start tiring but it would need others to falter to win this race but could make the frame, my top 2 are a few spots ahead of the rest of the field and PERFECT PASTIME 25/1 is my 2nd top and could make the frame if repeating its best and maybe even enough to win the race but has to be worth an each way wager at the price, the top weighted horse GRANDADS WORLD 15/2 is my top rated using a time it recorded at Goodwood (a similar type of track) last year and the jockeys 3lb claim could tip things in this one's favour its a possible pace setter and stall 13 ought to be ideal for that tactic so I'm hoping it can lead all the way.

SUMMARY: I will go with backing the topweight Grandad's World as my main bet hoping it's capable of winning this race from the front but I will also back Perfect Pastime each way just in case things go wrong with my selection and with a bit of luck I could make a profit from both of them.

Grandad's World 15/2 2nd
Perfect Pastime 50/1 Unp