Tuesday, 21 November 2017

1:40 Lingfield Racing Tips (21st November)

HIGHLAND ACCLAIM comes out top using turf times and has a reasonable figure at this course and distance, tracks the leaders and could win or be placed so 20/1 looks a big price.
KODILINE could be a bit of a hidden danger as it ran on well at 5 furlongs at Kempton and has decent trainer/jockey stats so could be competitive here 6/1.
SUPER JULIUS has done a decent time on good to firm going but it looks as though its a much better prospect over a shorter distance 11/1.
SIR OTTOMAN the trainer is 3-15 here and a decent time recorded at Kempton so could be a candidate to at least make the frame and 12/1 looks a fair price.
SHAMSHAYA trainer has a 16% win rate here and the jockey 33% win rate makes it look like a candidate but I'm not sure if this surface will suit it 9/1 is about right.
GORGEOUS NOORA good trainer stats and decent jockey as well then add on a good time on Tapeta it looks a positive but only a slow time at Chelmsford makes me unsure but it could be a pacesetter but 11/4 is poor value.
MEDICI BANCHIERE has a good jockey booking but the trainer is 0-23 with his 3yo’s here and this distance might be too far but no value at 12/1 to lay it.
SHORT WORK has 16% win rate for both trainer and jockey but I'm not sure this surface will suit it but is a possible pacesetter but 7/2 looks way too short in my opinion.
DIAMOND LADY has got 19% win rates for both trainer and jockey and 2nd best time over this course and distance, usually tracks the leaders so a possible contender and 16/1 is tempting for an each-way bet.
ROSE BERRY has a good time from Kempton but I'm not sure it stays the distance if a fast early pace and a 0-6 jockey booking don't look a positive move so 9/1looks a bit short.
JUST AN IDEA is top rated on course times and usually races prominently so must have at least a chance of making the frame or better and at 33/1 could be very tempting as an each-way bet.
SUMMARY: A hard race to analyse with 7 of the 11 runners being 3year olds, theres 3 that have been known to lead before but are drawn stall 6 or higher, ive got most of the horses having some degree of a chance depending which speed figures I use and the stats of the trainers and jockeys, so it might be a race best left alone as a betting prospect and go with 2 horses that I dont think can win so I will look to lay both Super Julius and Medici Banchiere on the exchanges to profit from the race.

Sunday, 19 November 2017

3:00 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (20th November)

Racing Tips
This 5 furlong sprint looks quite hard to solve and im struggling to narrow it down to less that 4 possibles, ETERNALIST 9/1 is my 4th top rated on course times and a possible pace setter but its best time from Newcastle would be good enough to win this race, SWENDAB 5/1 another possible pace setter is my 3rd top rated and the apprentices claim moves it to top spot so cant be discarded, BILLYOAKES 11/1 is 2nd top and is usually held up for a late surge while WANEEN 14/1 is my top rated and this one usually likes to track the leaders, I will be able to dutch the 4 selections to differing stakes to show a profit whichever one does the business.

Swendab 8/1 1st
Eternalist 10/1 3rd
Billyoaks 11/1 5th
Waneen 14/1 7th
My 3rd top rated is INDIAN AFFAIR 11/1 who is a front running sort and got the coveted stall 1 draw and it will most likely try to lead from start to finish here and its 7lb claiming apprentice would move it clear but they have ridden 6 times for the stable without success so not sure if ita a positive or negative booking but its chance cannot be ignored, Newstead Abbey is my 2nd top rated and could track the leaders and make the frame, my top rated is HAMISH MCGONAGAIN 10/1 who is usually held up for a late run, the trainer has a 16% win rate at this course the same win rate as the jockey for this stable so it looks a positive move to come here and I will be backing both of them each way to show a profit whichever one does the job.

Hamish McGonagain 10/1 3rd
Indian Affair 20/1 4th
Another race where I cant finalise the race to a single selection, ROCKLEY POINT 5/1 is joint 2nd top rated and the trainer has a good 19% win rate here but the jockey is 0-27 so not sure what to expect from it, ASSERTIVE AGENT 20/1 is the other joint 2nd top rated, the trainer has a 10% win rate but the jockey is 6-23 so it looks a positive booking, TOP OF THE BANK 16/1 is well weighted looking at times and comes out top but it looks as though this class might find it out but the jockey booking looks a positive as he has a 18% win ratio for the stable, I will back all 3 to show a profit but may lean in favour of an each-way bet on Assertive Agent and just do the other 2 as cover bets with smaller stakes.

Rockley Point 5/1 6th
Top Of The Bank 16/1 8th
Assertive Agent 66/1 11th

Saturday, 18 November 2017

3:15 Lingfield Racing Tips (18th November)

A good Listed race but its hard to analyse and there's a lot of potential pitfalls in this race but I'm going with MYTHMAKER 15/2 as it looks as though being drawn in stall 3 it could get to the front and then prove very hard to catch but any stakes will be kept on the low side with a few dropped in class and a couple of possible hidden dangers.

Mythmaker 8/1 2nd WOLVERHAMPTON 8.45
Of the 11 runners I think the bottom 4 may be outclassed here and theres 7 that have been known to lead before so it could be a fast run affair for its class, im going with 2 horses in this race, firstly PUSHKIN MUSEUM 8/1 who could be one to set the pace and the jockey booking hopefully looks a positive, the other selection is POWERFUL DREAM 14/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and could be the one to prosper if the front runners go off too fast and fade towards the finish and at the prices I will go with 2 each way bets.

Pushkin Museum 8/1 5th
Powerful Dream 14/1 3rd

Friday, 17 November 2017

12:20 Lingfield Racing Tips (17th November)

Lingfield Horse Racing
Of the 11 runners theres 2 that have been known to lead before, Ballesteros who is my 3rd top rated and the jockeys 5lb claim moves it to 2nd is what I would call the most natural front runner so stall 2 is a good draw for it and it could try to lead all the way, the horse it dislodged from 2nd spot is Pretty Bubbles who could stay on strongly to make the frame, top rated is SWORD EXCEED 7/1 a 3yo who could still improve, hopefully the jockey booking points to connections expecting a big run here, its a versatile sort with its racing tactics and can lead, dispute the lead or track the leader here and then prove the stronger at the finish.

Sword Exceed 7/1 1st + £50.40 Ex

I've put both divisions of this apprentices race into one blog to make things easier to explain, they are both very poor races so won't take much winning. John Bridger the trainer has 4 horses entered into this race and he's got 2 runners in each division and I do think he has set out to try and win this race as my top rated are both his horses and I expect at least 1 race will be won by him and hopefully both. Div 1 3.10 the selection is FLOWING CLARETS 6/1 who usually likes to track the leaders and has got a decent draw in stall 4 to do just that.

Flowing Clarets 6/1 8th


The selection is FLYING SAKHEE 16/1 who hasn't been given a good draw in stall 12 but there looks to be very little early pace in the race so it ought to be ok and its a hold-up horse anyway. The jockey Hollie Doyle has been booked to ride the 1st division selection and this will be her first rides for the stable on an all-weather track but on turf she has ridden for them 8 times resulting in 2 wins, which sort of points me to thinking the 1st division race is the one to favour but the apprentice riding the 2nd division selection hasn't ridden for the stable before on the all-weather so I'm not sure what is expected and I will back them both.

Flying Sakhee 16/1 Unp
Looks a decent affair for a class 6 race, there is of course a few front running types over this minimum trip, Pearl Acclaim did a good time early 2016 but thats beginning to look like a bit of a fluke rating and its not been in good form speedwise this year, First Bombardment is 3rd top and usually likes to track the pace setters, 2nd top is Frank The Barber who is a versatile type with its tactics and has got stall 2 so should at least be able to get a good position on or near the rails but im not sure if its fast enough out the stalls to lead against some of these, top rated is RED STRIPES 6/1 who can lead and if this one gets to the front it may be hard to catch, the jockey booking catches my eye and im hoping it means that connections are going for a big run in this race.

Red Stripes 6/1 6th

Thursday, 16 November 2017

1:45 Southwell Racing Tips (16th November)

Winning Racing Tips
Dungannon - not in my top 4 ratings and with a jockey record of 0-17 puts me off.
Bosham - front-running type but not sure this surface will suit it.
Arzaak a 3yo who’s trainer has a 20% win rate but the jockey is 1-26 so not for me.
Midnight Malibu - jockey record 0-24 and may not take to this surface.
RAZIN HELL - my top rated and ok stats and could try to lead all the way here.
Piazon - my 4th best but jockey 0-13 whilst decent 19% win rate for the trainer.
Mujassam - may prefer a longer trip than this to show its best so not for me.
Musharrif - not in my top 4, the trainer has 21% win ratio but the jockey is 0-10.
Aleef - another possible front-runner but not shown much so far but could be dangerous.
Alpha Tauri - may prefer further and not in my top 4 ratings.
Zapper Class - may need a longer trip to show its worth.
Gnaad - outside my top 4 but could run a decent race here.
Treaty Of Rome - 3rd top rated but this class usually finds it out but could make the frame.
Crosse Fire - is capable of making the frame off this lightweight but doubtful it can win.
SUMMARY: At first glance this race looked quite hard but being on a straight course negates any advantage of the draw, theres 3 known front running types in this race, Aleef who could be a possible danger but im not sure as it's not been in form lately, Bosham who might not like this surface so not sure it can lead all the way here, the other possible front runner is my top rated RAZIN HELL 12/1 and from stall 8 it can cover any advantage of one side of the draw or the other and if getting the lead it could prove hard to catch for most these if it reproduces its best time and the price permits me to go with an each-way investment in the race.

Razin Hell 12/1 4th

Monday, 13 November 2017

1:40 Southwell Racing Tips (13th November)

Free Horse Racing Tips
A poor race with 13 runners and no known front running types, ive only got 4 horses with recorded times on this surface and theres very little between 4th and 2nd top, Ticks The Boxes, Big Amigo and Sarabi but ive got FORTINBRASS 8/1 as my top rated on a time it recorded this year but a time from 2016 is even better and moves it a few spots clear of the field so hopefully from stall 3 it can get a good early position from which to attack late on but it's not a race where I will be going in with full strength stakes.

Fortinbrass 20/1 6th SOUTHWELL 3.50
Another poor race but 14 runners and at least theres some known pace setters which always helps even over this straight course, theres 3 possibly hidden dangers that havent run here before but have shown some decent form with cut in the going on grass and Mr Enthusiastic could be the more dangerous of them here, BOROUGH BOY 5/1 is my 2nd top rated and the trainer has a decent 15% win ratio here, top rated is COISTE BODHAR 7/2 and this one is being ridden by a 7lb claiming apprentice which either moves it even further ahead that the 2lbs I originally had it the better or if a hindrance moves it down into 2nd spot so I will go with backing them both to show a profit whichever one does its best but once again my stakes will be kept on the low side.

Borough Boy 5/1 9th
Coiste Bodhar 6/1 4th

Saturday, 11 November 2017

4:20 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (11th November)

Phar Lap
Reedanjas hasn't any recent surface form and finds this too far (lay) 12/1 Singula 0-5 maiden, very poor form (Lay) 25/1 Sophisticated Heir ok stats 2nd top (Ew) 12/1 MEANDMYSHADOW could in this race lead or contest the lead from the outside stall and if getting to the front then prove hard to beat.(EW) 11/1

Menadmyshadow 11/1 Unp WOLVERHAMPTON 4.50
Monarch Maid is a versatile sort but only has slow times and not good form (lay) 14/1 KYLLUKEY is 2nd top rated but looks the most likely pacesetter so should go well (EW) 8/1 FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN is top rated and a decent jockey booking (EW) 11/2

Fairway To Heaven 8/1 9th WOLVERHAMPTON 5.50
Seamster finds this distance too short on the aw despite being a front-runner (lay) 6/1 FAST ACT hasn't any recent course form but dropping in class here (ew) 14/1 BONDI BEACH BOY would go joint top rated using Newcastle times so a danger (Ew) 12/1 INVINCIBLE RIDGE 2nd top on course times good jockey booking (Ew) 10/1 POINT NORTH top rated and stays on strongly at this trip (EW) 12/1

Point North 20/1 8th SUMMARY
A slight change from my usual blog and at the end of each horse I've put in brackets what I think would be the way to go and if going with one bet per race it would be:
4.20 WOLVERHAMPTON - MEANDMYSHADOW each way wager 11/1 hoping it can lead all the way despite a poor draw.
4.50 WOLVERHAMPTON - FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN 11/2 can hopefully pick up Kyllukey 8/1 who could set the pace and both have been in decent form recently and I am quite happy to back them both to cover both angles.
5.50 WOLVERHAMPTON - POINT NORTH 12/1 looks the value call for an each-way bet if the early pace isn't too fast but if so then Bondi Beach Boy at 12/1 would be the alternative each way bet and personally I can't decide between the pair and only sided with my top rated.

Friday, 10 November 2017

6:45 Newcastle Racing Tips (10th November)

Racing Tips
Cashla Bay no aw form fast time good going turf possible danger(ew) 7/2
Tilly Trotter maybe too far but no distance form on Tapeta (Lay) 8/1
Veena 2nd top rated and good trainer/jockey stats (Ew) 5/1
Fruit Salad maybe too far but good stats (??) 6/1
Penny Pot Lane no course form, fast time at Wolver (EW) 9/1
Economic Crisis hold up type but this looks too far (Lay)
Nuns Walk well weighted but better elsewhere but top rated maybe not class(??)
French slow times and maybe surface doesn't suit it (LAY)
SUMMARY: A hard race to analyse with no known front runner, Nuns Walk is top rated but trainer has poor record here, 2-94 and it might be outclassed here, Veena is 2nd top rated and trainer has 19% win rate here, Cashla Bay could be a danger from a turf time and Fruit Salad looks as though this is too far but maybe not if its a slow early pace and it has very good trainer jockey stats but PENNY POT LANE 9/1 has a fast time from Wolverhampton which is the same surface, its never run here but if reproducing its best here it has a decent chance and the trainer has an 18% win rate here, stakes will be kept low.

Penny Pot Lane 9/1 4th NEWCASTLE 9.15
Quick Look may prefer another surface, jockey 0-26 (Lay) 9/2
Ballymore Castle not sure if its a positive or negative going/distance (--)
Samarmadi good trainer/jockey stats but not sure of surface (--)
Major Crispies not sure of surface, decent jockey stat (--)
Pomme De Terre may be better over shorter trip (LAY)
Start Time may be too short maybe wrong going (lay?) 9/1
Manatee Bay trainer only 1-22 but nd top rated (p) 50/1
Poppy In The Wind decent jockey stat 18% win, distance and going queries (lay)
Vallarta slowish times so may struggle here but jockey has 17% win rate (lay)
Cosmic Chatter has ok trainer/jockey stats and my top rated (EW) 16/1
Naples Bay may not like the surface on its aw debut (Lay)
Lucky Lodge 3rd top rated, tracks the pace (Ew) 28/1
Lady Of The Lamp only 4th best has good stats (EW) 7/4
SUMMARY: Manatee Bay 2nd top, Lucky Lodge 3rd top and Lady Of The Lamp all have at least a chance of making the frame here but top rated is Cosmic Chatter and I will go with backing COSMIC CHATTER 16/1 each way as it looks the value call in the race and then smaller covering bets on the other 3 to make a profit whichever one does the business.

Cosmic Chatter 16/1 3rd

Tuesday, 7 November 2017

2:45 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (7th November)

Best Horse Racing Tips In World
BOWSON FRED 9/2 could set the pace here and is my top-rated but the 7lb claiming apprentice is 0-25 for the stable which puts me off but could easily make the frame and possibly win if getting its own way up front.
LANDING NIGHT 4/1 my 2nd top rated but becomes top rated if taking off the 7lbs from the horse above and the jockey has a 21% win rate for this stable.
I will go with backing both horses to cover both angles then show a profit whichever one does the business.

Landing Night 9/2 2nd
Bowson Fred 9/2 4th
FIELD OF VISION 8/1 usually likes to track the pacesetters and well drawn to do that in stall 3, the jockey has a 15% win rate for the stable and it's my top rated and the price just about permits me to go with an each-way bet.
BORN TO FINISH 5/1 my 2nd top rated and a hold-up type once again the jockey has a 15% win ratio for the stable so could be thereabouts, I was hoping to do 3 each way bets in this race so I hope it drifts to a big enough price.
VERY HONEST 20/1 despite being drawn in stall 9 it looks the most likely pacesetter in the race and could repel any challengers if allowed to set its own slightly slower early pace and the apprentice booked has a 1-2 win rate for the stable which looks a positive booking so I will go with an each-way bet.
There's only 3lbs between my top 3 ratings and they all usually use different racing tactics so it could come down to which one works best on the day so I will split my bet between all 3 of them to hopefully cover all the probabilities.

Born To Finish 5/1 1st
Very Honest 20/1 3rd
Field Of Vision 16/1 Unp

Monday, 6 November 2017

3:50 Kempton Racing Tips (6th November)

The Best Horses In Training
Gulliver won in a fastish time on tapeta at Wolverhampton and a fast time on this surface at Lingfield but over 7 furlongs and despite having no speed figure it could be dangerous but isn't much value at 15/8 but it could be the winner so hard to know what to do.
Kasbah has recorded relatively slow times and not for me here and a lay to me as long as it's not a bigger price than the 10/1 it is now.
Pettochside hasn't any recent all-weather form and its old form might just about make it competitive to make the frame but I doubt it can win here (lay) 8/1.
Intransigent usually likes to track the leaders, it's my top rated and is being ridden here by a 7lb claiming apprentice which could help its cause (EW) 12/1.
Tropics is my 3rd top rated and has a positive jockey booking and could make the frame and possibly more if others falter. (Ew) 16/1.
Sir Ottoman has only poor English form but if reproducing some of its other form it could be a danger and I cant discard it altogether in this race but the price 25/1 makes it look as though its chances are limited and I will leave it alone.
Fast Track has only slowish c/d times then add on its poor trainer stat, 0-21 runs here, makes it look a possible lay in this race. (LAY) 9/1.
Parnassian is my 4th top rated and would need a few to run badly to win this race but it could make the frame but I'm doubting it will win (lay) but 12/1 isn't any value for the lay.
Vimy Ridge is my 2nd top rated and it could get a good run from stall 2 and I'm hoping it can at least make the frame here (Ew) 14/1.
Boy In The Bar has only shown poor form over this c/d, its time at Newcastle was a slow time but has good trainer stats and very good jockey stats which makes me think it might be fancied by connections for this race but at 6/1 I would look to back only for a place.
Jameerah hasn't shown much form this year, its time in 2016 was on the slow side but it did a fast time on this surface at Chelmsford so not sure what to expect but I'm not sure it can win, at the price my (lay) isn't of any value.
SUMMARY: Its not the best of races for a class 3 affair and there are no known front-runners in the race which always makes it a lot harder to analyse the race and get a picture of how the make-up of the race could affect each horse so stakes will be kept on the low side, I've picked out 5 possible lays which will depend on the betting (when I did all the groundwork for this I set an upper limit of 10/1 and only analysed the win part of any lay bets as it would have taken far too long to do win and place and it's hard to say which horses will or won't be pushed out when beaten so may or may not make the frame when they get the chance) I've also got 4 that I think might have a chance at least to make the frame what will depend on their prices but my selection is INTRANSIGENT 12/1 who usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and looks the value call in the race, as usual at the price I will go with an each-way wager.

Intransigent 16/1 2nd