Wednesday, 22 February 2017

7:15 Kempton Racing Tips (22nd February) HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85)

Oriental Relation -- is versatile with what running tactics it deploys and its best time puts it in joint 4th place on my figures but the trainer is 0-20 here and the jockey 0-13 for the stable which doesn't fill me with confidence about its chances but could possibly make the frame.
Steelriver--at this distance usually likes to track the pace setters and then stay on strongly at the finish as though it wants a longer trip with 2 front runners it might or might not get the fast early pace its needs at this distance, it is my top rated but the trainer is 0-17 here and the jockey is 0-4.
Under Siege -- is one of two pace makers in the field but stall 9 isn't going to be ideal but it is my other 4th joint top rated horse and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch for a lot of these runners and the trainer has a 15% win rate and the jockey a 35% win rate for this trainer.
Plucky Dip -- comes out third best on my figures and can be held up or track the leaders but it does find this trip on the short side so will probably have to race prominently to have a chance of winning and the trainers has a 11% win rate and the jockey 13%.
Florencio -- has only a slow time over this course and distance but does well elsewhere with this surface so could do well if taking to the track and the trainer has a 21% win rate and the jockey is 3-6 for the stable so can't be discarded in terms of winning this race.
Excellent George -- will need to be held up to win at this distance as in a true run race it hasn't got the stamina to be competitive but it's got the coveted draw in stall 1 but probably won't be able to take advantage of it in this race.
Parkour -- hasn't any recent form at this course but did do a good time at Chelmsford and if capable of repeating that time here it must have a chance of doing well and the trainer does have a 21% win rate like its stablemate Florencio but the jockey only a 12% win rate.
Salvatore Fury -- has only produced comparatively slow times at this distance as it does much better over a shorter distance so will need to be held up to win this race and the jockey is 0-6 for this stable which is a negative in my eyes.
Major Crispies -- can be held up or track the pace setters but it hasn't got any recent course and distance form and its time at Chelmsford was a slow one but there's neither a negative or a positive with the trainers and jockeys statistics.
He's My Cracker -- is a possible front runner and isn't badly housed in stall 3 so could gain control of the rails from the start that's if it can because I'm thinking this horse would be better on a slower surface than the one it encounters here.
Vimy Ridge -- is well weighted and comes out second best on my time figures and it has made the frame recently so is in form and could easily make the frame here and it can be held up or track the leaders and stall 4 isn't too bad.
SUMMARY: A cracking little race with 11 runners and typically some of the speed figures are gained by horses that have been towed along with a fast early pace and just don't win very often and that is true on both of my top 2 ratings, then my 3rd top rated finds this distance too short and with maybe not a fast early pace it won't be able to stay on quickly enough nearing the finish, so I'm going with UNDER SIEGE 15/2 who from stall 9 could feasibly lead and if doing so prove very hard to beat and the danger looks to be FLORENCIO 15/2 who is using a good 5lb claiming apprentice to aid its chances to shine here but stakes will be kept on the low side with it being a very competitive race.

Tuesday, 21 February 2017

3:40 Southwell Racing Tips (21st February) HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-90)

winning racing tips
A class 3 race with 8 runners and 3 that have been known to lead before, Captain Lars only usually leads if nothing else wants to and won't have to do so in this race, LADY NAYEF 4/1 usually races prominently and did its best time this year but its only my 3rd top rated but at least that's proved that its fit to do itself justice, Archimedes could try to lead but I'm not sure if its fast enough to get there and it's not in my top 3 but Escalating is my 2nd top rated and another possible pace setter but this one hasn't had a run since November 10th last year and this one usually needs a run or two to get fit before it's capable of showing its best which could set the race up for CROSSE FIRE 14/1 my top rated and this one usually likes to race behind the front runners and then stay on strongly at the finish, so I will be going with a small win bet at 4/1 and a small each way wager at 14/1.

Crosse Fire 14/1 2nd
Lady Nayef 4/1 3rd

Monday, 20 February 2017

3:45 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (20th February) HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+)

It's unusual to see a class 2 race on a Monday unless its a bank holiday, of the 11 runners 8 of them have led before so it could be mad dash from start to finish, Boom The Groom starts of as my top rated and has the plum draw in stall 1 so could gain control on the rails and then prove hard to catch, my original 2nd best is Encore D'or who usually races prominently without actually leading but stall 10 isn't going to help its cause but ROYAL BIRTH 14/1 starts off as 3rd best but is being ridden by a 3lb claiming apprentice which moves it to top spot and hopefully it can get a decent early position from stall 5 from which to attack as the line looms and the trainer does well here and the apprentice has got a 17% win rate for the stable so it looks a positive booking and I'm hoping it's enough to tip things in its favour and the price means I will be having an each-way wager.

Royal Birth 14/1 3rd
4:20 Wolverhampton - Division I
Eleven runners in this division with 3 that have been known to lead before and 2 of them are my 4th and 3rd top rated, Colourbearer from stall 5 is my 4th best while Commanche from stall 10 is my 3rd top rated but this one could easily get across to contest the lead if not getting it all its own way and this trainer-jockey combination usually means that connections are expecting a big run from their horse, Head Space is my 2nd top rated but the apprentice who's been given the ride has only managed 1 win from 31 rides before today which doesn't fill me with confidence about its chances to win this, my top rated is DIVINE CALL 16/1 who is from the Milton Bradley stable and he's got my top rated in both divisions so it looks as though they had set out to try and win this race and only Commanche looks capable of upsetting their plans if it can get an easy lead but that looks doubtful from such a wide draw and at the price I will be having an each way punt on the selection.

Divine Call 20/1 10th
4:55 Wolverhampton - Division II
With 10 runners and 3 possible pace setters and my top 2 ratings are in that 3, Sugar Town is drawn in stall4 but I'm not sure if its good enough to get to the front especially with the other front runners drawn either side of it, Major Valentine is my 2nd top rated and got stall 3 so could be the one to gain control of the rails but its also a horse I think will do even better on a slower surface, my top rated horse, INDIAN AFFAIR 9/1 is in stall 5 and if this one can get up alongside the other front runner or even get to the front on its own and it then ought to be hard to catch.

Indian Affair 9/1 9th


Saturday, 18 February 2017

1:45 Lingfield Racing Tips (18th February) SPRINT HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-65)

winning race tips
A nice looking class 6 race with 10 runners and 2 that have been known to lead before, Borough Boy is one of them but has been out of form so far this year and is usually a horse who gives an indication when it's about to hit winning form, the other is Whaleweigh Station who has luckily got stall 1 so it will most likely try to lead all the way and its 2nd best on my figures so some of these may struggle to get involved but my top rated is NEW RICH 13/2 who showed it was in form when finishing 2nd at Kempton where it finished strongly but too late to catch the winner, its last run can be ignored as it never does as well at Chelmsford and this looks its preferred course of the 3 with this surface.

New Rich 17/2 4th

Mid-division, outpaced over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on well on outer inside final furlong, not reach leaders: Distance: 3/4, hd, 1/2  

Ran on well and unlucky not to get place

2:20 Lingfield -
Another 10 runner race with half of them having been known to lead before and my top 2 are both possible leaders so it should be a fast and furious early pace and Zipedeedodah has drawn stall 2 so could get the control on the rails but this rise into class 4 might be too much for it and inst in my top 4 ratings, Verne Castle is my 3rd top rated and maybe the one to prosper if they go off at too fast a pace, Come On Dave is my 2nd top rated and despite being the bottom weight it has been running regularly in this class and could make the frame if things go its way but stall 10 in the make-up of this race doesn't look ideal especially with my top rated and another front runner, SANDFRANKSKIPSGO 12/1 being in the stall just to its inside and if this one gets to the front it could prove hard to catch and its last run at Chelmsford was better than the 5th place suggests and shows it to be fit and hopefully it can get back to the winner's enclosure here but the price does allow for me to go with an each-way wager.

Sandfranksipgo 14/1 8th

In touch on outside, ridden inside final 2f, lost place over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong opened 6/1 touched 7/1 Dist: 6L

Little chance from wide draw. Not getting to lead and running wide meant no hope.

3:30 Lingfield -
This class 2 race with just 8 runners and 3 that have been known to lead before is a very hard race to analyse to a conclusion with quite a few unknowns in the race, Dougan, Doctor Sardonicus, Suqoor and Fast Track could all be capable of improving on what they have shown so far so as I call them maybe hidden dangers, Swiss Cross has done a time that makes it my top rated but that was in a lower class affair and I'm not sure it's up to this standard nowadays and my 2nd top rated is KASBAH 9/2 who won over course and distance last time out in a fast time and although I doubt it will be a very big price I also think a reproduction of that run could be enough to win this race but that is as long as none of the possibly hidden dangers proves themselves better than previously shown.

Kasban 9/2 2nd

Tracked leaders, headway over 1f out, soon ridden, went 2nd inside final furlong, stayed on to press winner closing stages, just held Dist: hd (just held)

6:45 Kempton -

There's 3 known front runners in this 12 runner race and ANONYMOUS JOHN 16/1 who is my top rated from times at Lingfield and Chelmsford in stall 2 and Bridge Builder my 2nd top rated on course times in stall 4 look the most likely pace setters and then could be hard to catch but my top rated at this course and distance is PICKET LINE 16/1 who can be held up or track the pace setters and will need to either get a good early position from which to stay on strongly or a clear passage if its held up, I will be going with backing them both each way to make a profit whichever one does the job.

Anonymous John 16/1 4th

Towards rear, headway over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, not quite able to challenge 
Dist: hd, hd. nk

Picket Line 16/1 10th

Went left start, chased leaders, no impression from over 2f out


Friday, 17 February 2017

5:25 Newcastle Racing Tips (17th February) HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85)

Newstead Abbey —might prefer a slower surface and or a longer distance to show its best.
Handsome Dude —one of 3 known pace setters and 1 of my 2 joint top rated so must have a chance at least to make the frame and even win.
Extrasolar —hasnt won from 8 attempts on the all-weather tracks but none of them was on this surface but this trip is usually too far for it.
Buccaneers Vault —usually likes to race just behind the pace makers and then stay on at the finish, its 4th on my list so will need others to falter for it to make the frame.
Gramercy —hasnt any form on this surface also its been out of form lately, it's a hold-up type and I doubt it will spring back to form in this race.
Fairway To Heaven —can be held up or track the pace but isn't in my top 4 on course times but has only raced here once, it's done the best time at Wolverhampton of any in the race so must have a chance here.
Bahamian Dollar —hasnt any surface form but looks as though it would be better suited to a longer trip and ought to be staying on here as there will probably be a fast early pace.
Fujin —has been in good form and its last run over 7furlongs is best ignored it's a front-running type and 1 of my joint top rated horses but it might be in the grasp of the handicapper now.
Merdon Castle —isnt in my top 4 on course times but 2nd best on Wolverhampton figures and a place is maybe as good as it can expect to achieve.
Dark Side Dream —the 3rd known front runner and my 3rd top rated horse and this class may just find it out.
SUMMARY: With my top 3 ratings all being front runners this race could be run at a fast and furious pace from start to finish, Fujin and Dark Side Dream have run fast times I slightly lower class races so may struggle now up in class but never say never, Fairway To Heaven has done the best time of these but its only 5th best on course times but has only run on this course once so could easily improve its times here and looks to be the one that could prosper if the front runners go too fast and fade inside the final furlong, top rated on course figures is Handsome Dude but this one may have been flattered by being pulled along in a very fast run race but it has proven it can do it and I have to go with my figures so I will go with backing both FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN 11/4 to win and HANDSOME DUDE 11/1 with an each way wager to profit whichever one does the job.

Handsome Dude 11/1 1st
Fairway To Heaven 7/2 7th

Thursday, 16 February 2017

4:30 Lingfield Racing Tips (16th February) BEST ODDS GUARANTEED PLUS HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-65)

Racing tips, betting tips
Picansort — a holdup sort and will hope the pace isn't too fast as its better over a shorter distance.

Rigoletto — 75) has been known to lead before and is my 4th top rated so could do enough to make the frame

Spirit Of Zebedee — usually likes to track the early pace setters but it hasn't got any course form but could be a danger if taking to it.
DESERT STRIKE — 80) is versatile with its running style but is in stall 11 which isn't ideal but is my top rated so if getting things right could win or make the frame.
Compton Prince — 72) is my 5th top rated but may struggle here to make the frame unless others falter.
Red Invader — will have to be held up in this race to get the distance as it looks better over shorter and has only slow times at this distance
Ghost Train — 78) is a versatile sort and could possibly set the pace and stall 12 isn't ideal but maybe not the kiss of death in the make-up of this race and is my 2nd top rated.
Encapsulated — 77) comes out in 3rd place on my figures and can be held up or track the leaders and ought to be able to get a good early position from stall 1.
Disclosure — has no form on this surface at this distance and from its form elsewhere it looks as though it either needs further or its a hidden danger in this race.
Tavener — hasnt any form at this distance on this surface and is 0-14 from its all-weather races which have to be negative.
Tidals Baby — has poor recent form and may prefer further to show its best so this race may not be its day.
Pleadings — 71) only comes out 6th in my figures it can be held up or track the pace but may prefer a shorter trip to show its best.
SUMMARY: At 1st glance this race looks quite difficult to analyse to a conclusion but if Rigolleto from stall 9 does attempt to make the running it could move across to the rails and that would allow both my 2nd top rated Ghost Train and my top rated Desert Strike to follow it across and gain good early positions and it looks as though the race may be won from the front, its a shame all 3 of them have been drawn in the higher numbered stalls but I'm hoping the top rated *DESERT STRIKE 20/1 can either lead or get a good early position from which to stay on the stronger at the finish but the poor draw does mean my each way stakes will be kept on the low side.

*NR: Desert Strike

Wednesday, 15 February 2017

2:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (15th February) SPRINT HANDICAP (Div I) (CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-60)

racing tips
The 1st division of a class 6 sprint with 10 runners and 3 that have been known to lead before, my 3rd top rated Frank The Barber from stall 8 and Harpers Ruby from stall 3 are 2 of those possible pace setters and with the advantage of being likely to gain control on the rails my 2nd top rated ought to take some catching, I do think this horse is better over a longer trip so will need to get the fractions right if setting the pace but my top rated is SEE VERMONT 9/1 who was only beaten 2 lengths when finishing 5th last time out at Newcastle and the same jockey, Daniel Tudhope is employed again and he had 10 previous rides for the stable resulting in 3 wins and now this looks a good opportunity for it to get back to winning ways.

See Vermont 9/1 3rd
3:00 Wolverhampton -
This 2nd division has 9 runners but 6 of them have been known to lead so this could be fast and furious as my 4 top rated horses are all possible front runners and anything I select will need a degree of luck to escape any early trouble, Tonis A Star is 4th best and drawn in stall 5, Davids Beauty comes out 3rd top from stall 4, in 2nd position is the top weight ROARING RORY 7/1 and stall 2 so this one may be the one to gain control of the rails and then prove hard to peg back and the connections have employed a good 5lb claiming apprentice to aid their cause but I've got Pearl Noir from stall 6 as my top rated and this one has got a 7lb claiming apprentice on board and he has ridden it the last twice when finishing 3rd at Southwell beaten 2 and a half lengths and then last time out 2nd beaten by half the distance of its previous run at this course and distance, but I'm not sure the apprentice can win the race from this draw as he seems to need more experience and I rate him as a negative, so there's a 12lb swing if I add on 1 apprentice's 5lb claim and deduct the 7lb from the other horse the topweight is now my top rated and therefore the selection and I'm hoping it can lead all the way for victory.

Roaring Rory 7/1 1st
6:20 Kempton -
An 8 runner race with just 2 known pace setters, there's only 1 horse that I've dismissed completely and 4 others could be capable of doing better that they have shown so far under this type of conditions then only 3 that have fast enough times to make my graphs, Royal Rettie is my 3rd top rated but may need even further to show its best form so ought to be staying on at the finish, in 2nd place is Assertive Agent who can be held up or track the leaders and comes from the stable of Tony Carroll who is not adverse to having multi-entries in a race and has done so here as he also saddles my top rated horse BEAU MISTRAL 5/2 and this one is 1 of the 2 possible pace setters and this one has the best draw of the pair and if getting to the front from stall 4 it ought to prove to be very hard to catch and I'm hoping it attempts to lead all the way but if it falters it could set it up for its stablemate who is the same price so it looks like the bookies are thinking that the stable are out to win the race and I will stick to the selection but stakes will be kept on the low side of things.

Beau Mistral 5/1 7th

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Cheltenham Gold Cup 2017 Preview

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2017
The climactic race of the Cheltenham Festival, the Cheltenham Gold Cup meets on 17th March 2017. This prestigious event contests the best of the best in steeplechasing and is one of the most lucrative events in the British calendar, second only to the Grand National for its purse. Past winners of the Gold Cup have included the legendary Desert Orchid, Best Mate, Denman and Arkle. In 2016 Gordon Elliot’s Cheltenham first-timer, Don Cossack (ridden by Bryan Cooper) was added to that list with a thrilling win, coming home 4 ½ lengths ahead of Willie Mullins’ Djakadam. Here’s a look at some early tips and 10-year trends for the 2017 meet.

Tips

There’s a lot of buzz surrounding Colin Tizzard’s 2016 World Hurdle winner Thistlecrack (odds currently 7/4). A novice in the Gold Cup, he’ll be facing more established chasers and has to overcome a tougher course. He’s tipped to be an early favourite, though, and is likely to go with a clear round.

Another Colin Tizzard ride, Cue Card (currently 7/1) arguably had a better chance last year. Although he’s been in good form following an operation, winning the Betfred Bowl at Aintree and the Betfair Chase at Haydock, he was beaten again by his stablemate at Kempton.
Interest is mounting in Henry de Bromhead’s outsider Champagne West (20/1) following his move from former trainer Phillip Hobbs. A progressive type, the gelding has won two out of three races: Tramore on New Year’s Day, and the Theystes Chase at Gowran Park where he ran away with the win despite a heavy 12lb handicap.

Novice and experienced punters alike would do well to stay informed on how the races are going to play out before placing any bets, and check back nearer to the race for my winning tips.

Trends

Although not an exact science, it’s always worth taking a brief look at 10-year trends for the race.

Trainers

• Willie Mullins has become a dominant name at the Cheltenham Festival during the past decade, but is yet to win the Gold Cup despite having horses finishing runner up on 6 occasions including the past four years. 

• Former Gold Cup winner Paul Nicholls has had horses win or place runner up from 2007 to 2011, but 2016 was the first time he didn’t have a runner in the event since 2004. 


• With an impressive 53 Festival winners in his stable, Nicky Henderson has won the Gold Cup twice in the last 10 years but this year doesn’t have any stand out runners. 


• Nicky Henderson has won the Gold Cup twice in the last six years but does not appear to have an obvious candidate for 2017.


Jockeys


• Davy Russell’s 2014 ride Lord Windermere was the biggest priced winner of the Gold Cup since 1988.

• Despite only riding twice in the Gold Cup, Bryan Cooper rewarded each-way bets on both occasions (winning on Don Cossack in ’16 and finishing third on Road to Riches in 2015)


• Champion Jockey Richard Johnson has only ridden twice in the Gold Cup in the last ten years, finishing sixth in 2013 on Captain Chris and fourth on Monkerhostin in 2007


Tuesday, 14 February 2017

5:10 Newcastle Racing Tips (14th February) PLUS HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+ 0-65)

Burtonwood hasn't run on this surface before but usually, tracks the leaders so not a bet or a lay in my minds as I've no idea what it's likely to do.
Spiraea looks as though it needs a longer trip, although it's got no form it looks as though this surface may not see it at its best.
Jacobs Pillow hasn't run on this surface before but looks like it may not like the surface and will stay on and looks better over further.
Kens Sams hasn't any form in England and on Irish form it looks as though it may need further and is still a maiden after 9 runs, I couldn't back or lay this one either.
Monsieur Paddy can be held up the track the pace setters but it needs to improve on the times its recorded so far to win this.
Noah Amor looks the most likely front runner in the field and its 7lb claiming apprentice moves it into 4th spot but the booking isn't a positive as she's 0-4 for the stable.
Windforpower did me a good turn last time out when winning here and comes out 2nd best on my figures in this race and ought to at least make the frame.
Jess hasn't any form on this surface and normally likes to track the leaders but the trainer and the jockey combination have a very good record and this one may be able a hidden danger.
Indian Pursuit is my top rated despite looking as though a longer trip would and it ran a very good race when 2nd last time out over 6f on this surface at Wolverhampton. Novabridge is my 3rd top rated and a versatile type of runner which includes leading so could do enough to make the frame.
Thorntoun Lady is a holdup type of runner and is 4th best on my figures but I doubt it will finish fast enough to win it could be placed if others falter.
SUMMARY: A tricky race in many ways as there are 3 horses that I don't know if they would be bets or lays but I'll stick with the proven, as usual, I expect Noah Amor and Novabridge to provide the early pace, Windforpower is my 2nd top rated and is proven to be in form but my top spot is INDIAN PURSUIT 100/30 who will hopefully have a good fast pace to aim at and the jockey-trainer combination is quite good but I'm very wary of JESS 22/1 who could be a hidden danger and another with a good trainer-jockey combination and I would be looking to back the former with a win bet and an each way wager on Jess at such a big price and hope to show a profit whichever one does the business.

Indian Pursuit 7/1 1st
Jess 22/1 Unp

Monday, 13 February 2017

4:50 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (13th February) SPRINT HANDICAP (Div I) (CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-55)

eric winner
This is the 1st division of a poor class 6 sprint with 11 runners and 3 of them have been known to lead before, Emerald Bay who is out in stall 10 and I think that will end any slim chance this one had to win, Pull The Pin is drawn in stall 3 so could gain control of the rails but this doesn't look to be its surface so its not guaranteed to lead which leaves Swendab from stall 7 and this horse is in form after winning last time out at Kempton in a fast time for the class of race but this doesnt look to be its favourite surface but is still my 4th top rated and could at least make the frame, DANDILION 6/4 is my 3rd top rated and im a bit perplexed as the trainer is 0-26 with all his horses here but hes employed the services of Adam Kirby for the very 1st time so im thinking they are expecting a big run from it, KODIMOOR 13/2 is my 2nd top rated but the trainer has had 43 runners without a winner but is using this 5lb claiming apprentice for the 1st time and that 5lb moves it 1lb clear of my original top rated GIVE US A BELLE 16/1 who at this distance needs a fast pace to aim at and that could be provided by Swendab but this race wont take much winning so any stakes have to be at the minimum and I will be backing all 3 to show a profit
whichever one wins the race.

Give Us A Belle 16/1 2nd
Dandilion 9/4 3rd
Kodimoor 8/1 6th
5:20 Wolverhampton -
This 2nd division is a bit better with 4 of this 11 having led before and it looks most likely that the race will be won front the front of this race, Rat Catcher and Lady Bacchus are my joint 3rd top rated and the 2 that could be staying on the strongest and the former is being ridden by a 7lb claimer which would move it into 2nd spot but the apprentice is only 1-28 for the stable so it doesn't look a significant booking, FRANK THE BARBER 7/1 is only 5th on my figures but a front-runner and has the best of the draw in stall 3 and I've got this one marked down as being able to do a better time than its previously recorded and if getting to the front today could be the day, Harpers Ruby is my 2nd top rated and another front runner but stall 10 means it will need some degree of luck to get competitive early and may even prefer a longer trip so maybe it wouldn't be fast enough to lead here,in top spot I've got DREAM ALLY 5/1 also a possible pace setter and stall 5 could put it in a handy early position but another that may be even better over further so could be prominent and stay on at the finish and I will have to go with backing them both to show a profit whichever one does the job.

Frank The Barber 7/1 2nd
Dream Ally 5/1 3rd

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