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Tuesday 24 October 2017

4:40 Newcastle Racing Tips (24th October)


With 4 possible pace setters this could be a fast run race but my top 3 ain't known as front-runners, Duke Cosimo 3rd top and will be staying on as it looks as though he prefers a longer trip so this race could be run to suit, Fredricka 2nd top rated and can be held up or track the pace but top rated is INDIAN PURSUIT 5/1 who will be staying on strongly at this trip, the trainer has a 14% win rate here and the jockey a 21% win ratio on this stables older horses.

Indian Pursuit 16/1 Unp
Another race where the 5 possible pacesetters could set the race up for a finishing type, Hilary J is my 3rd top rated and the best of those trying to lead also the 3year old Liberatum could be dangerous if getting an easy lead, POPPY IN THE WIND 14/1 is my 2nd top rated and the trainer-jockey stats are reasonable, my top rated is CANFORD BAY 7/2 but the jockey has a relatively poor 1-28 record for the stable which is a little off-putting and the price definitely isn't value so I will go with backing them both to small stakes but probably favouring the place part of Poppy In The Wind.

Poppy In The Wind 20/1 6th
Canford Bay 4/1 4th
This race is quite hard to analyse too much of a conclusion, there are 4 possible pacesetters and maybe INLAWED 9/2 may do best with them, its a 3 year old drawn in stall 3 so could get control of the rails and prove hard to catch so has to be a contender especially when the jockey has a 28% win ratio for the stable, BIG LACHIE 14/1 is 2nd top and will be staying on strongly at the finish as it looks as though further would suit it better, top spot goes to Treacherous* another 3 year old and this one likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly, obviously the top-rated should have the best chance of winning but in the make-up of this race I want to cover all angles and back the 3 of them to show a profit whichever way turns out best.
PS* Treacherous is now a non-runner so I will go with backing the other 2

Inlawed 9/2 1st

Big Lachie 14/1 4th YARMOUTH 5.00
I doubt the going will be good or better but just in case it is then here goes, there are no known pacesetters in the race which doesn't help, I make the race between COMMANCHE 14/1 and STRICTLY CARTER 7/1 who both usually race by tracking the leaders, JUSTICE ROCK 14/1 is my other selection and this one is usually held up for a late run but the race may not be run to suit its style if it's a slow early pace so I will look to back all 3 to show a profit whichever one does the business.

Commanche 25/1 5th
Strictly Carter 14/1 Unp

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