5:55 Kempton Racing Tips and Lay Bets (23rd June)

KEMPTON 5.50

STORM MELODY 18/1 looks as though it needs further to show its best form, I maybe would look to lay it but it is an outsider and no value to lay MR BUTTONS 7/1 has only slow times at this distance and a shorter trip suits it better and one I would lay at the price SEPAHI 9/2 recorded a time this month so is in form but needs to improve timewise to win this race if others run to their best so could make the frame and maybe an each-way punt but not a value each-way bet at the price. BIG LACHIE 4/1 is my top rated on a time it recorded earlier this month over this c/d and will be staying on strongly at the business end of the race. FOLLOWTHESTEPS 10/1 hasn't any form on this surface and its best from Wolverhampton would see it making the frame here but would need to improve for the switch to this surface to win the race so another that could be an each-way punt. STALLONE 12/1 has slow ties at this distance and either wants further or a slower surface and maybe both so one I would look to lay. GLOBAL MELODY 7/1 is another that may need further or a slower surface and looks poor value at the price but worth laying MAGICINTHEMAKING 10/1 has slow times at this distance and looks to want a longer distance to show its true form so another on my lay list. ENGLISHMAN 5/1 has a time from Chelmsford (this surface) that would see it make the frame but its one run here before was quite poor but could be another each-way punt but ts not value at the price offered AVENUE OF STARS14/1 hasn't any distance form on this surface and has been in poor form in its last few runs. 

SUMMARY: There is 4 I will look to lay (Global Melody + Magicinthemaking + Mr Buttons + *Stallone) a few others could be backed each-way with some of their form but my money has to be riding on the back of BIG LACHIE 4/1 who would win cosily if reproducing its time from earlier this month.

*NR

Big Lachie 9/2 6th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Global Melod +1PT, Magicinthemaking +1pt, Mr Buttons +1pt

Total of the day: +2pts

1:35 Lingfield Racing Tips (28th December)

LINGFIELD 1.35 

ALFIE SOLOMONS 7/2 has got good trainer/jockey stats and if able to repeat its best Chelmsford time here it is my 2nd top-rated but hasn't been in form lately and is way too short at the price for a horse that's lost its last 16 races. 

SPRING ROMANCE 9/1 hasn't any form at this course but has 3 wins and 2 placed efforts from 8 AW runs so could go well but maybe not enough to win this race. 

GNAAD 16/1 is on a losing run of 14 and finds this trip too far if there's a fast early pace so I would look to lay it in this race but not at the price.

OBERYN MARTELL 22/1 is a 3yo but would need to improve timewise to win this race but has only had 2 previous runs on the AW tracks and doesn't look fancied.

GRISONS 6/1 hasn't any course form to work with but has been placed both times on its only 2 AW runs and its best from Chelmsford wouldn't be enough to win here so only make the frame again here at best.

BIG LACHIE 11/2 is my top rated but is on a losing streak of 10 and can find the trip too far if there's the fast early pace and will need some luck in running.

ISLE OF INNISFREE 33/1 hasn't any distance form on the AW tracks and its another that might find this trip too far in this race and a big outsider in this race.

REAL ESTATE 11/2 is outside my top 4 ratings but should be staying on at the finish in this race but maybe not quickly enough to win this race but could possibly make the frame.

ALICIA DARCY 18/1 is my joint 3rd top-rated and has a very good trainer/jockey stats so it looks like they are expecting a big run here and maybe an each-way punt at the price.

LALANIA 11/2 is versatile with its racing tactics and timewise it's the other 3rd top-rated horse and should get a good run from stall 1.

HIERONYMUS 18/1 has only slow times at this distance and races as though a longer distance would suit it much better. 

SHAKE ME HANDY 14/1 has only slow times at this distance and may need further to show its true merit.

SUMMARY:  I will concentrate on my top 5 ratings, in 5th top spot is Real Estate who will be staying on at the finish, Lalania in joint 3rd top spot has a poor jockey stat of 0-8 which is off-putting, ALICIA DARCY 18/1 the other 3rd top-rated has very good trainer/jockey stats which makes me think they are expecting a big run here so maybe worth an each-way punt, Alfie Solomons is 2nd top-rated on a Chelmsford time but hasn't been in good form lately and this race might not be run to suit it, my top rated is BIG LACHIE 11/2 but stall 11 isn't ideal but maybe able to get a good tow into the race if following the stall 10 likely pacesetting horse across towards the rails, I will be backing them both in this race to cover the angles.

Alicia Darcy 18/1 2nd 
Big Lachie 12/1 7th

Related post: I'm A Dandy Highwayman

2:00 Southwell Winning Racing Tips (5th November)

SOUTHWELL 2.00 

A full house of 14 taking part in this race but only 4 of them have done a time fast enough to register on my speed figures, Dandy Highwayman is my 4th top rated but it looks to be the only natural frontrunning type in the race and from stall 7 it could get across to the rail or very close to it and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch for most of these, First Excel who is on a losing streak of 16 comes out 3rd best on my figures but is in the widest stall so may need some luck, the 3year old Jill Rose is top rated on c/d times and 2nd top overall but the trainers 0-13 record at this course doesnt inspire confidence but it could go well, my top rated on overall figures is WILD FLOWER 5/1 but its best time did come from Lingfield and if going back to 2017 it had an even faster time from Wolverhampton, it has won on turf on good to soft ground so could easily take to this surface and if doing so could complete the hattrick. 

Wild Flower 14/1 Unp

SOUTHWELL 2.30 

This is a strange race and with seven 3-year-olds in the race it makes it very hard to analyse to a satisfactory conclusion and there's one even bigger reason why I'm going to leave this race alone is because I'm not sure of all the entrants preferred racing style so the make-up of this race is very muddled and best to save my money for another race. 

KEMPTON 6.40

Only 8 runners with just one known frontrunner in the race but Velvet Moon could be setting the race up for a finishing type, Excellent George comes out 4th best on c/d times but 2nd top if using its best Chelmsford time, Benny And The Jets is 3rd best on c/d times but that was from 2018 and may struggle to stay if there's a fast early pace, LAST PAGE 8/1 only produced a slow time when finishing 2nd over this c/d and could struggle a little if there's a really fast early pace but that may not happen here and the jockey booking looks a positive move, BIG LACHIE 7/1 has only slow times to its name over this c/d but a time from Lingfield this year would see it winning this race quite cosily but the jockeys 0-8 record for this stable is a little off-putting enough for me to have to go with 2 selections and I will split my stake between them both because they both look better value than I was expecting.

Last Page 8/1 1st 
Big Lachie 10/1 4th 

4:40 Newcastle Racing Tips (24th October)

NEWCASTLE 4.40

With 4 possible pace setters this could be a fast run race but my top 3 ain't known as front-runners, Duke Cosimo 3rd top and will be staying on as it looks as though he prefers a longer trip so this race could be run to suit, Fredricka 2nd top rated and can be held up or track the pace but top rated is INDIAN PURSUIT 5/1 who will be staying on strongly at this trip, the trainer has a 14% win rate here and the jockey a 21% win ratio on this stables older horses.

Indian Pursuit 16/1 Unp
NEWCASTLE 5.10
Another race where the 5 possible pacesetters could set the race up for a finishing type, Hilary J is my 3rd top rated and the best of those trying to lead also the 3year old Liberatum could be dangerous if getting an easy lead, POPPY IN THE WIND 14/1 is my 2nd top rated and the trainer-jockey stats are reasonable, my top rated is CANFORD BAY 7/2 but the jockey has a relatively poor 1-28 record for the stable which is a little off-putting and the price definitely isn't value so I will go with backing them both to small stakes but probably favouring the place part of Poppy In The Wind.

Poppy In The Wind 20/1 6th
Canford Bay 4/1 4th
KEMPTON 8.15
This race is quite hard to analyse too much of a conclusion, there are 4 possible pacesetters and maybe INLAWED 9/2 may do best with them, its a 3 year old drawn in stall 3 so could get control of the rails and prove hard to catch so has to be a contender especially when the jockey has a 28% win ratio for the stable, BIG LACHIE 14/1 is 2nd top and will be staying on strongly at the finish as it looks as though further would suit it better, top spot goes to Treacherous* another 3 year old and this one likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly, obviously the top-rated should have the best chance of winning but in the make-up of this race I want to cover all angles and back the 3 of them to show a profit whichever way turns out best.
PS* Treacherous is now a non-runner so I will go with backing the other 2

Inlawed 9/2 1st



Big Lachie 14/1 4th YARMOUTH 5.00
I doubt the going will be good or better but just in case it is then here goes, there are no known pacesetters in the race which doesn't help, I make the race between COMMANCHE 14/1 and STRICTLY CARTER 7/1 who both usually race by tracking the leaders, JUSTICE ROCK 14/1 is my other selection and this one is usually held up for a late run but the race may not be run to suit its style if it's a slow early pace so I will look to back all 3 to show a profit whichever one does the business.

Commanche 25/1 5th
Strictly Carter 14/1 Unp