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Wednesday, 16 October 2019

5:25 Southwell Racing Tips (16th October)


SOUTHWELL 5.25 

An 8 runner race with 2 known front running types amongst them but it looks a very poor race for betting purposes, if either Poeta Brasileiro 3/1 or even Montalvan if they are allowed an easy lead could become dangerous but even then I'm not sure the latter will like this slower surface, Round The Island 4/1 has won over the distance on softish going on the turf so it could easily take to this surface, if there's a good early pace maybe both Normal Equilibrium and Ghost Buy could struggle to stay the distance while Scandanavian Lady may need further to show its worth, my 2nd top-rated is Murqaab with Vallarta 5/2 in top spot but neither of their speed figures is of note, so unless the betting screams at me to back something I might well leave this race alone. (ok the betting doesn't show much really except maybe for Murqaab 25/1 who could be worth a small each-way punt as long as all 8 take part) 

SOUTHWELL 6.55

Of the 11 runners in this dash 5 of them have been known to lead before but none of my top 3 ratings are amongst those 5, Dark Shot is my 4th top-rated so may do best of the frontrunners or those racing near the front, Samovar is 3rd top on 2019 times while its best time from 2018 would move it into 2nd top spot overall, the one that comes out 2nd top on 2019 times is Mininggold but the jockeys poor 1-56 record on the stables older horses is off-putting in my eyes which leaves me with no option other than to put my money on SANDRIDGE LAD 16/1 who likes to track the leaders and it comes out top on both my 2019 figures and my overall speed figures and the trainers 4-14 record at this course is hopefully a strong pointer to the connections expecting a big run here and it will only be the top jockeys 2nd ride for this stable but I would think its a positive booking and at the price I have to go with an each-way wager.