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Thursday, 28 November 2019

12:10 Lingfield Racing Tips (28th November)


LINGFIELD 12.10 

LAITH ALAREEN is 0-3 on the AW tracks and I think it might be better when tried over a shorter distance and the jockeys 1-37 is poor so a lay if a single figure price.

SONSA HENIE this one races as though further might suit it better but there is plenty of early pace so it could be staying on at the finish, it has a 2-8 record on the AW and positive looking jockey booking.

MOHAREB has a time from Chelmsford that would make it my 2nd top-rated, it hasn't run here before but won the last timeout and could have some chance here to at least make the frame but looks poor value at 7/2. 

CHITRA hasn't any course form and its best Kempton time is relatively slow but has a reasonably fast time from the turf on good to firm going so cannot be ignored, has poor trainer stats 1-12 but the jockey has an 18% win ratio for this stable.

SPIRITED GUEST is 2-4 on the AW but hasn't run over this c/d before but it may prefer a shorter distance and I would look to lay it at 3/1.

WILEY POST is another that may find this trip too far especially when it looks like there will be a fast early pace which won't suit it so another to lay on 13/2. 

GHOST QUEEN is 0-4 on the AW and a longer trip may suit it better but the leaders could fade here so it could stay on well here I'm surprised it's 20/1. 

JOEGOGO has 5 wins and 8 places from its 24 runs on the AW and has the top speed figure but it was from 2018, this will be its 1st c/d run this year so it could go well from the front but the jockeys 0-12 record for the stable is off-putting.

OBERYN MARTELL has a decent time on g/f ground and this is only its 2nd AW race and is versatile with its racing tactics. 

SPRING ROMANCE has a 3-7 record on the AW tracks it is my 3rd top-rated using a c/d time from 2018 but hasn't raced over this c/d so far this year.

GNAAD has only slow times at this distance as it is usually too far for it and its record on the AW is 2 wins from 13 runs DARING VENTURE looks as though it could be a danger in this race as long as it doesn't battle too hard to lead and fade, its been running over 7 furlongs finding that just a bit too far and has good trainer/jockey stats. 

SUMMARY: This is a tricky race with a few lightly raced sorts who could still improve and 3 of them in particular, Chitra, Ghost Queen, and Daring Venture, look very dangerous, there is very little between my top 3 ratings who are Mohareb, Joegogo and Spring Romance and it wouldn't take much to win this poor race and maybe it is best left alone but having seen the betting I will have a small each-way bet on SPRING ROMANCE 14/1 just because its a bigger price than I expected and maybe the value call in the race.

Sprint Romance 14/1 Unp 

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