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Thursday 7 November 2019

5:40 Southwell Racing Tips (7th November)

As Eric is still having problems with his WiFi I will write a quick post about this 5f sprint.

5f (4f214y) Ladbrokes Where The Nation Plays Novice Stakes (Class 5) (2yo)

An intriguing Class 5 two-year-old race on the fibresand. 

Philip Makin's The Bell Conductor is a consistent son of Dandy Man, who has been placed on all three starts to date. This bay colt has been fancied in the betting on each occasion putting down a fine effort on debut when losing by a head over 6f. He was made favourite at York when bumping into a real talent in Tim Easterby's Art Power, who cruised home by over five lengths. The Bell Conductor didn't mind getting his feet dirty when heading to Catterick last time out in the heavy ground. He put up a sterling effort against the highly-rated Mighty Spirit when denied by a head. Philip Makin will be hoping to make this fourth time lucky. 

Mark Johnston has been in flying form all season and a record-breaker in every sense of the word. Auchterarder hasn't been seen for one-hundred and seventy-seven days since an imposing victory on debut at Beverley. This daughter of Gleneagles was weak in the betting that day but flew home to an easy victory. She has to carry a win penalty. It is a worry why she has been absent for such a long time. However, it is worth noting this bay filly has been given a Listed class entry, which is a positive. 

Another horse who has tasted victory is Michael Dod's Royal Context who similarly hasn't been seen for over a month. This gelding has proven he can handle the fibresand finishing fourth on debut over 5f at odds of 20/1. He won next time out when finishing strongly over 6f. He too has to shoulder a penalty. 

In its own way, this may be a competitive heat as Rathagan and Quiet Word could be of interest. 

Richard Hughes [Rathagan] is a bay colt and son of Kyllachy. He ran in a small field of just four horses at Nottingham in heavy going when the blindfold was removed slowly. Added to the fact, Rathagan was slowly into stride did him no help. He finished a creditable runner-up. 

Quiet Word is quite an interesting filly. This daughter of Dandy Man races in the familiar silks of the Ontoawinner & partner syndicate who are no stranger to winners. She cost 46,000 euros at the yearling sales. Without a doubt, this filly has been held in some regard as borne out by the fact she was 5/6f when disappointing on debut in soft going at Nottingham. A temperamental type, she was unruly at the start when withdrawn at Redcar but looked much better frame of mind when returning last month at Kempton when racing over 6f. She led for most before tiring in the closing stages to finish fifth beaten almost ten lengths. On the face of it, she looks disappointing if not limited but there was some promise in that last effort. Dropping back to the minimum trip should be positive. There is always a fear a  third start (after two disappointing efforts) may be leading to another poor run with a handy nursery mark in mind.

Conclusion: The Bell Conductor is a fair juvenile although you always have to take it on trust horses will like this surface. Considering he ran well last time out on heavy going it shouldn't be a problem. In truth, this doesn't look the easiest of races to win. In fact, for this course, it is a tough-looking contest. Auchterarder and Royal Context have proven they can win but need to defy their penalties. To their credit, Johnston's filly won well on debut and a Listed race entry gives hope this horse has some class. Royal Context is a decent juvenile and won well last time and proven to go on the surface. The drop-down in distance may see him outpaced in the early stages. Rathagan isn't without hope if starting on terms. In addition, Quiet Word may have claims at the price. 

I would have to take a watching brief.   

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