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Thursday, 23 January 2020

12:40 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (23rd January)


SOUTHWELL 12.40 

I think this race in betting terms is best left alone but I am going to stick my neck out as I will have a small each-way bet on *HELLOFAGAME 33/1 who isn't well drawn in stall 12 and hasn't shown much in its latest couple of races but it is capable of bouncing back to form without prior warning so at the price I cannot let it run without some money riding on it at the price, I will also lay, (>Chiavart + *Meshardal + Newgate Angel<) to make an overall profit from the race. 

*NR
Newgate Angel (+1pt) Chiavart (+1pt)

Total = +2pt 


SOUTHWELL 3.30 

Only 5 runners in a class 3 race, both Zylan and National Anthem appear to be better when racing over a longer trip while the only known frontrunner in the race Airshow needs to improve timewise to hang on for the win but if given an easy lead then who knows, I will be backing both SAMOVAR 10/1 and HAREEM QUEEN 11/4 in this race but again not too big stakes. 

Hareem Queen 11/4 1st 
Samovar 10/1 3rd

Total = +1.75pts

NEWCASTLE 6.00 

To be honest, this isn't a great race for a class 4 affair especially as there's no known pacesetters in the field of 9, I will be looking to lay, (>Foolaad + Lorton + Glorious Charmer<) Hart Stopper could be a hidden danger looking at its turf form on good to firm ground, Treacherous is 3rd top overall but that's using a Kempton time as its time when it won over this c/d was a slow run affair Fuente is 3rd top on 2019/20 c/d times only, Fendale comes out 2nd top on both 2019/20 times and overall but my top rated is ATHOLLBLAIR BOY 12/1 who has run well before after a short break and the booked jockey has a decent 18% win rate on this stables older horses on the AW tracks and will be the one carrying my money but with the lack of known early pace my stakes won't be at full strength. 

Athollblair Boy 12/1 4th 
Lay bets: Foolaad (+1pt) Lorton (+1pt) Glorious Charmer (+1pt) 

Total points +2pts

NEWCASTLE 8.00

There's a few in this race that is on my radar to lay, (> Hot Stuff + Marcella + *Iron Ryan + Montalvan <) the topweight Jan Van Hoof comes out 4th top-rated and ought to be trying to stay on at the finish, Encoded is on a losing streak of 12 races but is my 3rd top-rated and it likes to track the leaders as does Mightaswellsmile my 2nd top-rated but this ones losing run stands at 30 races, the one my money will be riding on here is QAARAAT 9/2 it has been running ok lately and if reproducing its best 2019 c/d time then it would be winning quite comfortably but in these class 6 races consistency isn't a word used at this level so I'm afraid once again my stakes won't be at full tilt.

Qaaraat 9/2 Unp
Lay bets: Hot Stuff (+1pt) Marcella (+1pt) 

Total = +1pt

Total on Day +6.75pts