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Thursday, 30 January 2020

12:50 Southwell Racing Tips & Lays (30th January)

SOUTHWELL 12.50 

There's nothing I can confidently lay in this race although I think First Excel may struggle over this five-furlong trip, looking towards finding the winner it is a race I cannot narrow down to less than four candidates, MOVEONUP 9/2 hasn't any course form but has a decent time at Chelmsford and I think it might take to this surface, GUPTA 25/1 has decent trainer stats and very good jockey stats and timewise it ought to make the frame, this will only be its 8th race although it is still a maiden, HARRY'S RIDGE 4/1 is another that has no course form but its best Wolverhampton time puts it in the mix and also has good trainer/jockey stats and this will only be its 6th race and on the AW tracks its been placed on both its runs, AMAZING AMAYA 13/2 is my top rated and it was over this c/d so has to be one I back, I will dutch all four selections but tilting in favour of my top rated horse. 

Moveonup 13/2 1st, Gupta 25/1 4th, Harry's Ridge 6/1 4th,  Amazing Amaya 11/1 7th 

Total +3.5pts

CHELMSFORD 6.30 

I've got 2 horses on my list to lay in this race (Moon Trouble + Restless Rose) who both might find this trip too short for them to show their best, but winner wise im still struggling to narrow it down to less than 3, the bottomweight Dynamo Walt would be in the mix on its best 2018 time but was way below that level for the whole of 2019, YOURE COOL 11/1 is my top rated on just 2019/20 c/d times so has to carry some of my cash and is one of only 2 known frontrunners in the race it could prove hard to catch if getting to the front, CHITRA 7/4 hasnt any c/d form but has a time on this surface from Lingfield which would see it go close but would need to improve timewise for the switch to this course to win the race but has very good jockey stats which make me think connections are expecting it go very well here, VERNE CASTLE 13/2 is 2nd top rated on just 2019/20 c/d times but a good few spots below my top rated but its best time from 2018 would definitely put it in with a chance, I will be dutching all 3 of them but maybe to varying levels.

Verne Castle 13/2 2nd, You're Cool 11/1 3rd 
Lay bets: RestlessRose (-2.5pts) Moon Trouble (+1pts)

Total -3.5pts  

CHELMSFORD 7.00 

Of the 12 runners I have several marked down as being out of form, there is a few that I will look to lay (Emilys Sea - Murquaab - Carla Koala - Sandy Heartbeat - Sing Bertie) Spennys Lass is on a losing run of 24 which is off putting, I have got four horses that have a chance of winning this race, Alaskan Bay 2nd top overall and Kyllukeytop rated on its c/d times from early in 2019 are capable of winning the race but are well out of form lately but I could possibly back them both as covering bets just in case they spring back to form without warning, the two that I will be concentrating on are SUPERSEDED 5/1 and *CUBAN SPIRIT 10/3 they are both joint 3rd top rated overall, the former could set the pace and stall 9 might not be too bad in the make-up of this race with very little other known early paced types, from stall 11 the latter could get a good tow across to the rails and then get a good position from which to attack late on and did win last time out so is in good form.

*NR
Superseded 7/1 6th
Lay bets: Emily's Sea (+1pt)  Murquaab (+1pt) Carla Koala (+1pt) Sandy heartbeat (+1pt) Sing Bertie (+1pt)

Total +4pts

Total on Day +4pts