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Showing posts with label Amazing Amaya. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Amazing Amaya. Show all posts

Sunday, 12 February 2023

5:00 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (13th February)

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.00 Div I

A field of 9 for this division of this class 6 dash with 2 that have been known to lead before although Prince Of Rome is more of a versatile with its racing tactics and maybe only leads when nothing else wants to so it might not try to lead here. Coast might need further to show its best form but being my 3rd top rated it could run on into the frame, Munificent is my 2nd top rated and this one usually tracks the leaders before staying on strongly nearing the finish but I doubt it will be an each way price. My top rated is AMAZING AMAYA 12/1 who tries to stay on at the finish and if able to track the early pace then could stay on for the win so has to carry some of my money but I have a feeling that BOOM THE GROOM 4/1 could be allowed to set the early pace and if able to do so being my 4th top rated it could do enough to at least make the frame but could pinch the race from the front if allowed an easy lead and the jockey has a decent 19% strike rate on the stables older horses. 

Amazing Amaya 12/1 2nd -1pt 
Boom The Groom 9/2 6th -1pt 

Total -2pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.30 Div II

The make-up of this 2nd division is very similar to the first division with 1 what I would call a natural front running type and if AUTUMN FLIGHT 8/1 runs here and is allowed an easy lead it could go very well from the front and could even hold on for the win so has to carry some of my money. Fair And Square 6/1 is still a maiden after 25 races and if a single figure price I will look to lay it along with Procivity 12/1 who races as though further suits it better and has never won on an artificial surface from 8 attempts and its 1 good rating is looking like a race where it towed along in a fast run affair so is maybe best ignored. I will also be backing TOPLIGHT 7/2 who can deploy any tactics apart from leading and is from the same Stable as Boom The Groom is the 1st division so has good jockey stats. It look to me as the trainer Tony Carroll who has 2 entrants in each race thinks he can win this race and i have put forward one from each division which I think is the better prospect in each division.

Toplight 4/1 3rd -1pt 
Autumn Flight 8/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bet Fair And Square +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -3pts

Thursday, 5 January 2023

8:15 Southwell Racing Tips (6th January)

SOUTHWELL 8.15

Thirteen horses turn out for this class six six furlong sprint with just two known front running type amongst them and one is Peachey Carnehan and normally stall eleven would hamper its chances but with a lack of early paced sorts in the make up of this race it just might be able to contest lead here and then do maybe enough to make the frame but I doubt it will be an each way price but the other one is PRAISE OF SHADOWS 3/1 in stall ten and this won last time out over today's course and distance and has been found a good opportunity to follow up here. I backed Bernard Speirpoint when it won cosily last time out but needs to improve time wise to win this race and although it has won over this distance before I still think its better over a shorter distance so might be worth laying in this race, on the tissue prices these three are at the head of the betting with everything else forecast to be double figure prices. Then there is my top rated using Tapeta times from elsewhere and that is AMAZING AMAYA 40/1 (EW) who admittedly hasn't been in great form recently but this horse can spring back to form without prior warning so if its a double figure price I couldn't let it run without a few quid riding on it as an each way punt especially as it has the stall one draw and could get a good position on the rails behind the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish.

Amazing Amaya 40/1 5th -2pts
Praise Of Shadows 3/1 8th -1pt

Total on the day -3pts

Monday, 26 December 2022

4:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (27th December)

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.30 Div I

A poor class 6 sprint split into 2 divisions with 10 runners and a couple of known front running types. Unless something else changes their usual racing tactics then the early pace could be set by Dodgy Bob from stall 9 while Won Love could set the pace if allowed to set a slow pace but I doubt either could lead all the way for the victory. I will look to lay Coolagh Magic 7/2 who I think is a better horse when racing on the Polytrack surface Pollinate 16/1 and Griggy 9/2 are both hold up types and my joint 3rd top rated although the latter can struggle to stay the distance if there's a fast early gallop, I've got Admirable Lad 9/4 as my 2nd top rated who usually likes to track the leaders and has the stall 1 draw so ought to make the frame but isn't an each way price. My money will be riding on AMAZING AMAYA 9/1 (EW) and is another hold up type and if getting a clear run when needed it could pick the leaders up near the finish and an each way wager could pay dividends. 

Amazing Amaya 20/1 8th -2pts

Lay bet Coolagh Magic -3pts

Total -5pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.00 Div II 

This 2nd division has 4 known front running types so should be a true run race, the four at the bottom of the handicap look to have virtually no chance of winning but I expect them all to be double figure prices. Astrophysics 3/1 is my 4th top rated but might struggle here with a fast early gallop and might be worth laying at the price. Peachey Carnehan is a possible pacesetter and my 3rd top rated but isn't an each way price, Bomb Squad comes out in 2nd top spot and likes to track the leaders, it might be better when racing over further so should be staying on at the finish but my top rated YOU'RE COOL 12/1 (EW) is another front running type and if reproducing its best speed figure from earlier this year then it could lead all the way and at the price has to be an each way wager. 

You're Cool 16/1 7th -2pts 

Lay bet Astrophysics +1pt

Total -1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.00 

A five furlong class 5 dash where 7 of the 11 runners have been known to lead before and my top 5 ratings are all front running sorts. I think Bethersden Boy 11/2 may be better when racing over further and in the make-up of this race stall 8 might not be ideal so I will look to lay it. Autumn Flight stall 6 and Ooh Is It stall 3 are my joint 4th top rated horses, Lihou is in stall 1 and my 3rd top rated so could do well if gaining control of the rails, Ornate 40/1 is my 2nd top rated and housed in stall 4 but its form has been very erratic and your never quite sure what to expect but the price is tempting for a small each way punt. My interest will be on KIM WEXTER 11/2 who is housed in stall 2 so ought to get a good early position and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch.

Kim Wexler 11/2 2nd -1pt 

Bethersden Boy +1pt

Total 0pts

Total on the day -6pts

Sunday, 4 December 2022

4:20 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (5th December)

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.20 Div I

A class six, five furlong dash split into two divisions and this first division has eleven runners with four of them having been known to lead before so it ought to be a true run affair. I will look to lay Amor De Mi Vida 7/1 if of value to do so as its a hold up type and may not stay on strongly enough to catch the leaders. If the top weighted front running type Pepper Streak who has the ideal draw in stall one, can reproduce its best Polytrack rating on this surface then it would be my top rated but it has run twice before on this surface at Newcastle and didn't register on my charts in either race so I have to assume this surface doesn't suit it. Red Walls 7/1 is my fourth top rated, Another Angel 25/1 in third top spot and Fair And Square 11/2 in second top spot are all front running types and they may battle too hard here for the lead and tire nearing the finish which could play into the hands of AMAZING AMAYA 16/1 (EW) who likes to track the leaders before staying on strongly nearing the finish and hails from the Derek Shaw stable and the jockey Tom Eaves has a fifteen percent strike rate when riding the stables older horses and if an each way price all the better. 

Amazing Amaya 25/1 9th -2pts 

Total -2pt 

Lay bet outside the betting guide of 9/1 and less sp

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.50 Div II

In this second division of the race there is just one known front running type in YOU'RE COOL 12/1 who is my third top rated using a 2021 course and distance rating and is top rated on Southwell speed figures,who hails from the Derek Shaw stable and I think this one was going to be a pacemaker for its stablemate, who is in the other division, and the apprentice jockey, Rose Dawes who has a twenty percent win ratio for the stable, riding this one was probably given instructions the to go off fast from the off to hopefully ensure at least one of them won the race and it might be able to do that here if allowed an easy lead so I will be backing this one and hopefully it will be an each way price. I think Big Impact 10/1 may need a longer distance and might be worth laying if its a single figure price near the off, Okaldi is my second top rated horse just one pound higher than the likely pacesetter so may struggle to catch the leader. My top rated horse SPANISH ANGEL 4/1 recorded its best rating at Newcastle last year but hasn't run over this course and distance before but if taking to the course it does have a good few spots in hand and would win a shade cosily.

Spanish Angel 2nd 4/1 -1pt 
You're Cool 12/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day -4pts

Monday, 18 April 2022

1:50 Epsom Racing Tips (19th April)

EPSOM 1.50 

Here we are on the fastest course in the country where the track record is 53.6 seconds to cover the five furlongs which means the horse covers 20.5 yards every second. I can see 4 horses that are confirmed front running types and this race could be won from the front. The betting will be the deciding factor whether I lay anything in this race but I have go something in mind if they are value to lay, it is quite a competitive race and several with chances of winning here so my stakes will be kept low but I will be having a bet on JUST THAT LORD 9/1 who only ran twice last year and the first one of those two races was a win so it can win when returning after a break and it has good trainer/jockey stats even if that's from a limited amount of data. 

Just That Lord 9/1 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.35 

I have no idea which horse or horses will set the pace to this race so I will be wary when betting and keep my stakes low, if Bomb Squad or Rain Cap decide to set the pace they could be very dangerous as both look as though further would suit them better and if bringing stamina into play they could have the advantage while others, Astrophysics, Tom Tulliver and Gustav Graves who can struggle to stay this distance would have every chance if there was a slow early pace and becomes a 2 furlong dash in the home straight, I will be splitting my stakes between *JACK RYAN 11/2 who usually runs on strongly at this distance and might prefer further so if this one sets the pace it could lead all the way but I do have AMAZING AMAYA 13/2 as my top rated over this c/d for this year and this one is usually held up for a late run so hopefully backing them both will cover the angles. 

*NR
Amazing Amaya 13/2 Unp -1pt

Total -1pt 



YARMOUTH 5.40 

The going is given as good and good to firm in places but I will watch an earlier race before I make my mind up but I think the going will be ok for me to bet on, its not a bad looking class 5 dash with half of the 10 runners having led before it ought to be a true run affair but they could be setting it up for something coming from off the pace as Outrage 15/2 will battle hard in the early stages to lead and could make the early pace too fast and then they fade nearing the finish, the top weight Nehmo 15/2 won last time it ran 174 days ago and will need this run for fitness so I will look to lay it, Silver Dollar 3/1 has been in cracking form on the AW but hasn't run on grass before so I'm not really sure what to expect of it here but I couldn't back or lay it, it could win easily or maybe not like the surface, who knows but I will stick with the proven, my top rated using a time recorded at Ripon last year is COLEY'S KOKO 8/1 (EW) and this one is either held up at the rear or races in midfield and then runs on strongly at the finish, it didn't show much on its only run this year which was the same last year when coming back from a break from racing and last year it won on its second run of the year and I'm hoping it can repeat that feat here and if a double figure price I will be going with an each way investment.

Coley's Koko 8/1 4th -2pt 

Total -2pt 

Total on the day -4pts

Friday, 25 March 2022

1:50 Doncaster Racing Tips (26th March)

DONCASTER 1.50 

I'm not sure what the going will be but I'm hoping its at least good ground and if it is good then I could add Mo Celita to my list of lays as it seems much better when there's some cut in the ground, others that I will look to lay are Mondammej who might be better racing over a shorter distance and may also be outclassed at Listed level and Volatile Analyst may also not be up to winning at this level, my top rated is GARRUS 15/8 who is actually dropping down in class compared to its last few runs and has won twice before when returning from a break from racing I don't usually like to back favourites but at this level its a different story and if fully fit it looks a strong bet, add on the stables 21% strike rate at this course and the jockeys 43% win ratio for the stable everything points to connections expecting it to be visiting the winners enclosure. 

Garrus 15/8 15/8 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt


KEMPTON 3.55

On paper a cracking class 2 sprint with 8 runners so I'm hoping they all run and then I can have an each way wager, its a tricky looking race and I don't think there's anything I could lay with any confidence so that's not the way to go to make a profit from this race, Ejtilaab and Repartee will make sure there's a fast early gallop by making sure the leader isn't able to set a slower place than usual but I'm hoping PAPA STOUR 11/1 (EW) can lead and then prove hard to catch, the 7lb claiming apprentice is 0-13 for the stable which is a bit off-putting but the 7lb claim could swing things in its favour and if an each way price then that will be the way I will go but only to small stakes. 

Papa Stour 18/1 6th -2pts 

Total -2pts  

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30 Div I

This division looks very poor with only 2 having recorded a rating on my speed figures but even then they are low ratings, my 2nd top rated Calins Lad 10/3 is forecast to be the favourite and it might well win this race as my top rated Porfin 7/1 can struggle to stay the distance if there's a fast early pace and i have no idea if there will be a strong early pace or not so it might not be troubled by the distance in this race,so I will take a watching brief and leave this race alone. 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00 Div II

I have got six with ratings in this 2nd division, I will start with the lay/s and 1st on my list is Jack Ryan 4/1 who is 0-17 on the AW surfaces and the jockey is 0-15 for the stable, Highest Ambition 12/1 may struggle to stay the distance with 2 known front running types in the race especially as they both have recorded speed figures, Decision Maker 8/1 will also be on this list if its still a single figure price at the off, Eye Of The Water 6/1 is top rated using just recent Southwell ratings and comes out 3rd top on my overall figures so being a front running type it could go well but its been 58 days since the stable last had a winner and has only won once from 19 runs on the AW tracks but it could make the frame, Red Alert’s 3/1 poor jockey stats, 1-29, puts me off this one a bit but does come out in 2nd top spot but isn't an each way price, it doesn't seem a race to be betting in too heavily but I will have to side with AMAZING AMAYA 6/1 who has the stall 1 draw and could come from off the pace and pick up the leaders nearing the finish so a small bet could pay dividends. 

Amazing Amaya 15/2 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Jack Ryan +1pt

Total 0pts 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30 

A nice looking class 4 race with 12 runners and a guaranteed decent early gallop, firstly I will be looking to lay both Melly's Flyer (NON_RUNNER) who might not find this surface ideal also the trainer is 0-21 with their older horses at this course and Candescence 11/1 who may need further to show its best form also the jockey is 1-57 for the stable, speed figure-wise Aramis Grey could go well again here but with the trainer not having had a winner in the last month or so its not for me win wise, Invincible Larne 11/1 is my 3rd top rated but the trainer has a poorish 8% win ratio at this course and the jockey is 0-6 for the stable but could still make the frame, Water Of Leith 6/1 is well weighted on its best rating but I'm not sure its quite up to this class and the jockey is 0-7 for the stable which leaves me with INEVITABLE OUTCOME 16/1 (EW) who takes over top spot when taking off the apprentices 3lb claim, it has been beaten in a photograph at this class before while the jockey has a 19% win ratio on the stables older horses so i am hoping its an each way price just in case its not quite up to class 4 standard.

Inevitable Outcome 16/1 8th -2pts 

Total - 2pts

Total on the day -5pts

Thursday, 30 January 2020

12:50 Southwell Racing Tips & Lays (30th January)


SOUTHWELL 12.50 

There's nothing I can confidently lay in this race although I think First Excel may struggle over this five-furlong trip, looking towards finding the winner it is a race I cannot narrow down to less than four candidates, MOVEONUP 9/2 hasn't any course form but has a decent time at Chelmsford and I think it might take to this surface, GUPTA 25/1 has decent trainer stats and very good jockey stats and timewise it ought to make the frame, this will only be its 8th race although it is still a maiden, HARRY'S RIDGE 4/1 is another that has no course form but its best Wolverhampton time puts it in the mix and also has good trainer/jockey stats and this will only be its 6th race and on the AW tracks its been placed on both its runs, AMAZING AMAYA 13/2 is my top rated and it was over this c/d so has to be one I back, I will dutch all four selections but tilting in favour of my top rated horse. 

Moveonup 13/2 1st, Gupta 25/1 4th, Harry's Ridge 6/1 4th,  Amazing Amaya 11/1 7th 

Total +3.5pts

CHELMSFORD 6.30 

I've got 2 horses on my list to lay in this race (Moon Trouble + Restless Rose) who both might find this trip too short for them to show their best, but winner wise im still struggling to narrow it down to less than 3, the bottomweight Dynamo Walt would be in the mix on its best 2018 time but was way below that level for the whole of 2019, YOURE COOL 11/1 is my top rated on just 2019/20 c/d times so has to carry some of my cash and is one of only 2 known frontrunners in the race it could prove hard to catch if getting to the front, CHITRA 7/4 hasnt any c/d form but has a time on this surface from Lingfield which would see it go close but would need to improve timewise for the switch to this course to win the race but has very good jockey stats which make me think connections are expecting it go very well here, VERNE CASTLE 13/2 is 2nd top rated on just 2019/20 c/d times but a good few spots below my top rated but its best time from 2018 would definitely put it in with a chance, I will be dutching all 3 of them but maybe to varying levels.

Verne Castle 13/2 2nd, You're Cool 11/1 3rd 
Lay bets: RestlessRose (-2.5pts) Moon Trouble (+1pts)

Total -3.5pts  

CHELMSFORD 7.00 

Of the 12 runners I have several marked down as being out of form, there is a few that I will look to lay (Emilys Sea - Murquaab - Carla Koala - Sandy Heartbeat - Sing Bertie) Spennys Lass is on a losing run of 24 which is off putting, I have got four horses that have a chance of winning this race, Alaskan Bay 2nd top overall and Kyllukeytop rated on its c/d times from early in 2019 are capable of winning the race but are well out of form lately but I could possibly back them both as covering bets just in case they spring back to form without warning, the two that I will be concentrating on are SUPERSEDED 5/1 and *CUBAN SPIRIT 10/3 they are both joint 3rd top rated overall, the former could set the pace and stall 9 might not be too bad in the make-up of this race with very little other known early paced types, from stall 11 the latter could get a good tow across to the rails and then get a good position from which to attack late on and did win last time out so is in good form.

*NR
Superseded 7/1 6th
Lay bets: Emily's Sea (+1pt)  Murquaab (+1pt) Carla Koala (+1pt) Sandy heartbeat (+1pt) Sing Bertie (+1pt)

Total +4pts

Total on Day +4pts