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Wednesday 5 February 2020

1:30 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (5th February)


There's only 6 runners here and I will look to lay half the field (Big Time Maybe + Robot Boy + Red Stripes) Nick Vedder is the odd one out as I haven’t marked it as a positive or negative in this race so I don't know what to expect but it would need to improve timewise to win the race, I will be backing the remaining 2 runners, MULZIM 6/4 my 2nd top-rated and YOUNG TIGER 5/2 the top-rated horse both have got good trainer/jockey stats plus there is only 2lbs between them which is virtually nothing in sprint racing and their figures are only accurate if everything goes right for them during the race, the prices are poor value and its hardly worth backing them both but could be ok to add to a multi bet. 

Mulzim 6/4 1st + EX £4.10
Young Tiger 9/2 2nd 

Lay bets: Big Time Maybe (+1pt) Robot Boy (+1pt) Red Stripes (+1pt)

Total: +3.5pts


This 10 runner race is a nightmare, I can split the field in half with (Para Mio + Andre Amar + Decision Maker + Aquarius + Meshardal) in the half I will be looking to lay while the other 5 runners all have something in heir favour to giving them some chance of winning this race, the topweight Requinto Dawn hasn't any course form but some of its turf form makes me think it will like this surface, Jan Van Man also has no course form but has good trainer/jockey stats which might indicate connections expecting a big run, Six Til Twelve has a decent c/d time but it hasn't made the frame in all of its 6 previous AW races, the 2 that stand out timewise are Reshaan who is still a maiden after 29 runs and Hellofagame still a maiden after 14 attempts, it is maybe a race best left alone until I've seen the betting. I will look to have a small each-way bet just because of the value on HELLOFAGAME 33/1 just because I think it is too big a price to let run without having something riding on it.

Hellofagame 66/1 3rd (+6.6pts)

Lay bets: Decision Maker (-4.5pts) Para Mio (+ 1pt) Andre Amar (+1pt) Aquariius (+1pt) Meshardal (+1pt) 

Total +6.1pts 


In this race I have a couple of horses (Equally Fast + Empty Promises) but I would only have half a point lay on each of them, the rest of the runners all have some chance of making the frame and especially Precious Plum who I think is the most likely pacesetter coming out of stall 2 so could quickly gain control of the rails which is always a help on the turns here and it is my original 3rd top rated, Creek Harbour and It Must Be Faith were my original joint 4th top rated but they are both being ridden by apprentices who’s claims move them to 3rd and 2nd top rated, my original 2nd top rated is Tabaahy but it drops to 4th best with the 2 horses getting weight taken off their backs, top rated overall is QAARAAT 13/2 who is in decent form lately and especially when finishing 2nd last time out and has been found an ideal opportunity to go one better here, a reproduction of its best 2019 c/d time would see it winning here with a bit in hand and will be the one carrying my money.

Qaaraat 13/2 3rd 

Lay bets: Equally Fast (+1pt) Empty Promises (+1pt) 

Total +1pt 

Total on Day +10.6pts