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Wednesday, 26 February 2020

2:05 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (26th February)

SOUTHWELL 2.05 

Only 6 runners but a tight competitive affair between my top 4 ratings, I would look to lay (Champagne Mondays + Bungle Billy) maybe the pace will be set by Red Invader 9/2 and if allowed an easy lead it could well win the race but would either need to improve or steal it from the front, Arzaak 3/1 is top-rated on a time it recorded in 2019 but the jockeys 1-17 for this stable is a little off-putting, Gorgeous General 7/4 has very good trainer/jockey stats so has to be considered but is quite short in the betting, Final Legacy 3/1 is my 2nd top-rated and also has good trainer/jockey stats, I may look to dutch all 4 of my top-rated runners or I might just do the 2 lays to make money that way. 

Lay bets: Champagne Mondays (+1pt) Bungle Billy (+1pt)

Total +2pt

SOUTHWELL 3.05 

Another 6 runner race, I can only find (Coolagh Magic) to lay, I expect the topweight Split Down South who won last time out will be the favourite but that win was over 7 furlongs and with 2 other front running types in this race things might happen a shade too quickly for it, Kupa River has a very good time from Wolverhampton but its one previous run over this c/d resulted in a poor performance so I'm, not 100% convinced it likes this surface, Smokey Lane is 0-15 on the AW tracks and one of those runs was over this c/d but it was run in a reasonably fast time but would need to improve if others run to their best, Liamba is well weighted on its best time from last year and the jockey has a 20% win ratio on this stables older horses on the AW courses, my top rated is PRIVATE MATTER 17/2 and it does have a few spots in hand if running to its best and that was a c/d time recorded last year when finishing in the frame but the trainers stat of 1-23 and the jockeys stats of 0-5 are both a little off-putting but I know it is capable of winning and has been found a decent chance in this race but I will be having a covering bet on Liamba. 

Private Matters 17/2 2nd 

Lay bets: Coolagh Magic (+1pt) 

Total 0pts

KEMPTON 6.00 

I haven't got much data to work within this race and it might not take a lot of winning, Miracle Garden on bottom weight has a squeak on it best c/d time, on times from other courses Disruptor, Highland Acclaim, Englishman, Little Miss Lilly and Black Isle Boy could all have a chance of making the frame but the topweight PENARTH PIER 4/1 comes out top rated and despite being drawn in stall 8 it might not be too bad with the make-up as there doesn't appear to be an abundance of early paced types in the field plus the jockey who rode this one to glory last time out when taking his first ride for the stable is booked again to follow up here and it looks to be a worthy favourite.

Penarth Pier 7/1 8th 

Total -1pt

Total on Day +1pt