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Wednesday, 12 February 2020

4:00 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (12th February)


SOUTHWELL 4.00

I can find 2 (Jorvik Prince + Glacier Fox) to lay in this race and to be fair there's not a lot to separate the rest of the field except for the one I will be backing, Amazing Amaya comes out 4th best but has only ever won once from 14 races on the AW surfaces, Red Stripes comes out 3rd top-rated and it usually leads or at least tries to lead so could go well, Piazon usually likes to track the leaders and comes out 2nd best on my speed figures but the jockeys 0-3 for this stable doesn't inspire confidence, my money will be riding on WARRIOR'S VALLEY 10/1 who has been well handicapped for a few runs now and has been running ok without winning this is a drop down in class compared to its recent opponents and I am hoping it can get back to winning ways now dropped to class 6. 

Warrior's Valley 10/1 7th 

Lay bets: Jorvik Prince (+1pt) Glacier Fox (+1pt)

Total +1pt  

SOUTHWELL 4.35

There's only seven runners but a quite tricky looking affair. 

Firstly, there aren't any known front running types in the race which complicates things. 

I have a feeling Decision Maker, who won last time out and is my 2nd top-rated on just 2019/20 c/d times, has the stall 1 plum draw, so maybe the one to set the pace or at least contest the lead. If reproducing its best time from 2018 it could well win the race. However, its best rating from 2019 was 12lbs lower which puts me off its chances of winning this race. 

I will look to lay both (Puchita + Bawtry Lady) I nearly added Isabella Ruby to the list of lays but it has a piece of form on turf that says it just might like this surface having never raced on it before. 

Deeds Not Words has no form here but its best time from Chelmsford would certainly put it in the mix. 

Rob's Delight is my 3rd top-rated on 2019/20 c/d times and has good trainer/jockey stat. A winner last time out, so in rude health and should go well again. 

My money will be on GORGEOUS GENERAL 11/2 who ran over this c/d 5 runs ago in a class 4 race. Today sees it dropped to class 5 in 3 of its last 4 races but this is the 1st time for a while when its dropped in class and running over its favoured c/d then add on that it has very good trainer/jockey stats and I think it can get back to winning ways in this race.

Generous General 11/2 1st 

Lay bets: Puchita (+1pt) Bawtry Lady (+1pt) 

Total 7.5pts

Total on Day +8.5pts (+17.5pts profit in 2 days)