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Tuesday, 11 February 2020

1:35 Chelmsford Racing Tips & Lay Bets (11th February)


CHELMSFORD 1.35

I am not a fan of betting in stakes races they are all carrying the same weight apart from any apprentices allowances and there are only 5lbs between top and bottom on their official handicap rating. I have got 3 that I will look to lay (Watheer + Ask The Guru + Caso Do Lago) Krazy Paving won last time out but it was a slow run affair and this may be much harder for it but it is in good form, Wild Flower has the plum stall 1 draw and that's helpful for a front-running sort and it is my joint 3rd top-rated along with Ask The Guru but this one might be pushed to stay the distance with what looks likely to be a fast early pace, Alba Del Sole has poor jockey stats which is off-putting, I will split my stake between INDIAN AFFAIR 4/1 and POPPY MAY 9/2 who have both been known to lead and if getting to the front either could win the race and my stakes will be kept to a lowish level in this lowish level race. 

Indian Affair 4/1 3rd 
Poppy May 8/1 9th 

Lay bets: Watheer (+1pt) Ask the Guru (+1pt) Caso Do Lago (+1pt)

Total +1pt

CHELMSFORD 3.45

Only 6 runners and just (Lorna Cole) who I could lay, the next three, Green Door, Look Surprised and It Must Be Faith, are all closely rated, Green Door a frontrunner has the plum draw but one of my selections MOVEONUP 9/2 is the other likely pacesetter and is in stall 2 and if getting to the front could prove hard to catch but Tone The Barone 1/1 won nicely last time out and could be an improving sort and there is very little between them on times so normally I would back them both but after seeing the betting I will go with just one tip as it is my top rated and much better value than the favourite. 

Moveonup 6/1 2nd 

Lay bets: Lorna Cole (+1pt)

Total 0pts

NEWCASTLE 5.50

This is a nice looking class 4 race but there isn't a natural known frontrunning type amongst them, I will be laying (Barrington + Lady Of Aran) then there's Mia Mento and Jungle Speed who hasn't raced on the AW before and the latter may not take to this surface but not sure I can actually lay it, the bottom weight Epeius is well weighted on its best time but they are usually in a lower class race than this one, Lucky Lodge is another capable of going well but again usually in class 5 races, my money will be riding on ATHOLLBLAIR BOY 6/1 who usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly so if the early pace is slow it could take it up earlier than planned and then prove the stronger and the apprentice jockey does have a 16% win ratio on this stables older horses on the AW.

Athollblair Boy 6/1 1st 

Lay bets: Barrington (+1pt) Lady Of Aran (+1pt) 

Total 8pts 

Total on Day 9pts (Exceptional)