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Wednesday, 19 February 2020

4:50 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (19th February)


NEWCASTLE 4.50 

Only 7 runners to analyse with just 2 (Alsvinder 5/1 + Charming Kid 12/1) to lay, I would add Tathmeen 3/1 favourite to the list of lays if its trainer didn't have another runner in the race although im 99% sure this class is too much for it, War Whisper hasnt any c/d form to its name but has won on good to firm ground on grass so should like this surface and could be a hidden danger, both Foxy Forever and Fendale could go well here, the former hasnt won over this c/d from 6 previous attempts so im not sure it will do enough to win the race but not sure enough to lay it, the latter has a time from 2018 that would see it winning the race but its best from 2019 would see it fall short, my money will be riding on CANFORD BAY 10/3 and the apprentice jockeys 7lb claim could be the deciding factor in this race, it is versatile with its racing tactics and if getting to the front it ought to prove pretty hard to catch. 

Canford Bay 10/3 4th 

Lay bets: Alsvinder (+1pt) Charming Kid (+1pt)

Total +1pt 

KEMPTON 7.30

This is a tricky little race with just 7 runners, I will be laying 2 horses, (Thegreatestshowman 5/1+ Concierge 9/2) Treacherous won nicely last time out but timewise it wasn't the greatest and its best time from 2019 still leaves it just outside my top 3 but is in cracking form and cannot be discarded easily, Last Page is well weighted on its best form/time but mainly in slightly easier races, Bungee Jump hasn't any recent c/d form to its name while its best time from 2018 would still leave it out of the frame if all others run to their best, Junius Brutus has been running fairly well in class 2 races but is on a losing run of 12 race and a drop in class is maybe needed for it to shine again but never say never, the topweight EL HOMBRE 4/1 has also been running in better races than this one and it has good trainer 20% and jockey 22% winning strike rates and will be the one carrying my money.

El Hombre 13/2 4th

Lay bets: Thegreatestshowman (+1pt) Concierge (+1pt)

Total +1pt 

Total on Day +2pts