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Tuesday 24 March 2020

Can Backing Favourites of a Certain Price Really Show a Profit?


I hope you enjoyed the football blog post about the under 3.5 goals market?

How about making your horse racing pay with this magic system?

Read more.

I'm not one to sit idle when there is gold in those hills. 

I love maths - stats are my thing. 

Those who follow Eric Winner know I started using bets and lays in my recent sprint analysis. It's made over 140 points profit (to a level stake). True, some of the lay bets have been at big prices, but we made some serious money. 

If a 50/1 winner had been laid, it would make a big hole in my bank. (I think the biggest losing lay was priced 15/2). 

I was confident those big priced horses had virtually no chance of winning. 

So in real terms, they are easy money! 

The combination of win bets and lays has worked very well and a real opportunity to make your betting pay. I'm sure you would agree, one-hundred-plus-points profit in less than three months is no small change. 

A level stake of £7.15 per bet would have seen you win over £1,000. 

I've been busy working on a new system that I'm sure you will find interesting.  

Sprint racing has seen exceptional profits but I'm not one to rest on my laurels. 

However, the holy grail is finding a system where I can place either a bet or a lay and forget it. (In theory, this would need the use of a bot on betting exchanges). 


Because I don't want to be glued to my laptop for unending hours.  

I have finished looking at the past results for all racing. That includes the All-Weather, Turf and National Hunt.

This research focused on favourites! 

This idea is to back each favourite - increasing your stake to cover previous losses. Some might say it is a foolhardy method. It is a variant of the well-known Martingale system where you double your stake after each losing bet. 

In theory, the Martingale system works if you have a big enough betting bank. However, a losing streak - stretching into double figures - would bust most punters. If you were backing the favourite it is a fact (according to statistics) that roughly one in three wins. 

If a favourite won every third race it would be easy to make substantial profits. However, betting is by its nature unpredictable. This system would be plagued by long losing runs and an odds-on winner at the end of a sequence of losers you would see you fail to cover what could be a colossal outlay. 

The work is never done. 

I've put in many hours of study assessing the stats for winning favourites over the last two months (January and February) plus seventeen days of March. Sadly Coronavirus put pay to the rest of that month.  

So what's the system?

I had the idea of betting on every favourite priced even money (1/1) or greater. However, I was very surprised to find this approach threw up two losing streaks of fourteen races and one losing streak of sixteen (scary stuff). In addition, several other losing streaks of at least seven horses. 

I am sure it is possible to make this method pay but it would be very volatile medium with long losing runs. It would afford big payouts when you hit a good priced winning favourite but, perhaps, not for everyone and for that reason I will spend my time looking into new ideas to make a profit. 

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