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Friday 24 July 2020

12:30 Newmarket Racing Tips (25th July)


Looking at the weather forecast I have most likely written today's blog in vain as each course is forecast to have rain, so please check the going before betting. The early pace will most likely be set by Outrage but unless allowed a ridiculously easy lead I doubt it can hold on for the win, Thegreatestshowman is my 3rd top-rated and can be held up or track the leaders as can my 2nd top-rated horse Line Of Reason so both could go well here but I will be backing BLUE DE VEGA 5/1 who usually tracks the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and could get a good tow into the race being housed 2 stalls away from the likely pacesetter. 

Blue De Vega 5/1 1st (+5pts)

Total: +5pt

YORK 3.50 

A couple in this race who I will lay as they could struggle to stay the distance looking at the make-up of this race, (Abate + Autumn Flight) I think I should add Round The island to my list of lays as it looks outclassed at this level but it is capable of running a fast time which muddies the water a little, there's only 1lb between Normandy Barriere and Mutabaahy in 3rd and 2nd top spots, top-rated and the horse I will be backing is PADDY POWER 14/1 (EW) who hasn't shown much in its 3 runs this year but it looks to have been found an ideal opportunity to get back to winning ways but as usual when its a big price I would say to back it each way. 

Paddy Power 18/1 Unp (-2pts)

Total: -2pts

YORK 4.25 

I cannot work out which horse will set the pace here which always makes my analysis many times harder plus there's several horses that haven't got much data for me to work with, it's very close at the top of my speed figure list, Big Lachie is 3rd best and this horse is usually held up for a late run and its only rated 2lb below Roundhay Park in 2nd top spot and this one can be held up or track the leaders, top-rated but only by 1lb is FIRMDECISIONS 16/1 (EW) who likes to track the leaders and then stay on at the finish it will be the one I back with an each-way punt at the price but my stakes won't be at full strength. 

Firmdecisions 28/1 8th (-2pts)

Total: -2pts


There's a few lightly raced sorts in this race so my stakes won't be at full tilt here, Napping is capable of running well and producing good speed figures but it is usually in lower class races and this isn't the trainers favoured course with a 0-12 record, Gullane One is a possible leader here but its speed figures have gone down each year for the last 2 years so maybe past its prime at the age of 7, Choosey is another that would be fancied on a time from 2018 but hasn't been at that level since then, I will be backing *DEVIL'S ANGEL 4/1 who usually runs in the middle of the pack and then staying on resolutely at the finish but I cannot leave DANECASE 13/2 out as it won last time out over an extra furlong in a fast time and looking back at its best 6-furlong time from 2018 it would have every chance in this race.

Dancase 7/1 7th (-pt)

Total: -1pt

Total on the day: 0pts 

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