1:35 Nottingham Racing Tips (24th June)

NOTTINGHAM 1.35 

A field of 8 but no known front runners amongst them which I hate because it does honestly make things so much harder to analyse, the 3yo bottom weight seems better over a shorter distance but not enough for me to lay it but I will look to lay (Triggered 5/1 + Gowanlad) the former won a slow run affair last time out when it won and may have been flattered by the result and the latter might prefer a slower surface and also has poor trainer/jockey stats, Gilt Edge and Show Me A Sunset also have poor stats but not enough for me to lay them, I will be backing STRONBOWE 9/4 who also won last time out and that was good enough for top rating on this years times and the jockey has a 15% win ratio on the stables older horses but my stake wont be at full strength. 

Stronbowe 9/4 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet: Triggered +1pt, Gowanland +1pt

Total +1pt 

NOTTINGHAM 3.55 

A 13 runner race with 4 known front runners in the field, I have negatives against Harrogate, Haveoneyerself and Bellevarde but not enough to lay any of them as they all have pieces of form that would/could make the them competitive, I will look to lay both (Aleef 13/2 who may need further when racing on good to firm ground plus has poor trainer/jockey stats and Lucky Beggar 15/2 who has poor trainer stats and may also prefer a longer distance) my 2nd top rated is BOUDICA BAY 15/2 who will be trying to stay on at the finish and this race could be run to suit it if the leaders go off too fast and fade nearing the finish but if TRIPLE JAYE 6/1 gets to the front and doesn't get pushed too hard for the lead it could well lead all the way and I will back them both to cover both angles. 

Boudica Bay 15/2 1st +7.5pts 

Triple Jaye 6/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bet: Lucky Beggar +1pt

Total +7.5pts

NEWMARKET 5.20 

Only 6 runners but there is a couple of front running types in the race, Michael's Choice could try to lead and is my 2nd top rated on 2021 times so could go well especially with an easy lead but I do have BENEFIT STREET 9/2 rated higher and will be the horse I back but this one’s trainer also so has the tissue forecast favourite Araifjan 7/2 in the race, my selection is being ridden by a 3lb claiming apprentice but the latter is being ridden by Ryan Moore who has a 29% win ratio on the stables older horses and this one is the other front running type in the race, it would maybe a good idea to have a covering bet on its stablemate. 

Benefit Street 1st 9/2 +4.5pts 

Total +4.5pts

HAMILTON 8.30 

The main problem again with this race is the lack of known front runners in the field, The Gloaming hasn't any distance form on turf and only a slow time on the AW at Wolverhampton, Get Boosting and Show Me Show Me would both need to improve time wise to win this race, James Watt is my 3rd top rated and Economic Cris is my 2nd top rated and they can both be either held up or track the leaders, my top rated is VENTURA FLAME 11/4 but this one is a hold up type but this race might not be run to suit it if the early pace is on the slow side but as it is a 5 furlong dash then I would expect something to change its usual tactics and go from the front but my stake will be kept on the low side because of the lack of known early pace. 

Ventura Flame 11/4 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt

HAMILTON 9.00 

This race isn't as competitive as it first looks and I expect a lot of them will be big prices but these 3 (*Alsvinder 9/2 + Toolmaker 4/1 + Nodsasgoodasawink 7/1) are all forecast to be a single figure price and i will lay them if they are of any value, I expect the pace could be set by LANGHOLM 9/4 who is my 3rd top rated and if allowed an easy lead could steal the race from the front and I guess that's the reason why it is the favourite, FIRMDECISIONS 20/1 is my 2nd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and at the price has to be given as an each way punt, with the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim KILCONQUHAR 12/1 moves to top spot and is usually a hold up type and runs on well nearing the finish so another that has to be an each way wager, I will be backing all 3 of them.

*NR 

Kilconquhar 3rd -1pt

Langholm 9/4 4th -1pt 

Firmdecisions 20/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bets: Toolmaker +1pt, Nodsasgoodasawink +1pt

Total on the day +10pts

Pontefract Racing Tips & Lay Bets (31st July)

PONTEFRACT 1.25 

A race with a few lightly raced sorts and it doesn't look a race to be getting too heavily involved in betting wise, I will look to lay (*Magical Effect + Musharrif + Six Strings) as for finding the winner I've narrowed it down to 4 and I think I will be dutching them all, THE ARMED MAN 25/1 (EW) is only 4th top-rated but could be the one to set the pace and with an easy lead could pinch the race from the front so has to be an each-way bet at the price, FIRMDECISIONS 33/1 (EW) is 3rd top on 2020 times and on overall times so has to have a chance so another big enough to back each way, KINDLY 4/1 is 3rd best on 2020 times but is top-rated overall but that figure is only 2lbs higher than *FINAL FRONTIER 16/1 (EW) who’s best time was recorded this year which has to count for something and has to be the 3rd horse to be worth backing each way. 

*NR

Kindly 4/1 2nd (-1pt)
Firmdecisions 33/1 4th (-2pts)
The Armed Man 25/1 8th (-2pts)

Lay best: Musharrif +1pt, Six Strings +1pt

Total: -3pts

GOODWOOD 3.15 

A shame there's only 7 runners and to be honest, it looks like a one horserace and I expect BATTAASH 1/3f will be an odds on favourite, it ought to win cosily according to my speed figures and if pushed I would go with backing the 3-year-old Liberty Beach for the forecast. 

Battaash 1/3 1st 
Liberty Beach 5/1 4th 

Total -1pt 

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.35

Save the best till last, I do prefer the AW racing as I seem to be able to see the overall picture much more easily, I will look to lay (Our Man In Havana + Awsaaf + Creek Harbour + Eastern Star + Kingsman Spirit + Where Next Jo) Cameatchoo is top-rated on just 2020 times and this 3yo could still improve, Pushkin Museum would be in the frame if reproducing its best time but that was back in 2018 and hasn't been at that level for a while now, Perfect Symphony would be in the mix as long as the early pace isn't too fast but that might not happen with Peachey Carnehan in the races this one likes to set the pace and could do enough from the front to stay in the frame so maybe an each-way bet, my money will be riding on FANTASY JUSTIFIER 14/1 (EW) who will be held up for a late run here and is big enough in price to be worth an each-way punt.

Fantasy Justifier 28/1 Unp (-2pts)

Lay bets: Our Man In Havana +1pt, Awsaaf +1pt, Creek Harbour +1pt, Eastern Star +1pt, Kingsman Spirit +1pt, Where Next Jo +1pt

Total: +4pts

Total on the day:  0pts

12:30 Newmarket Racing Tips (25th July)

NEWMARKET 12.30 

Looking at the weather forecast I have most likely written today's blog in vain as each course is forecast to have rain, so please check the going before betting. The early pace will most likely be set by Outrage but unless allowed a ridiculously easy lead I doubt it can hold on for the win, Thegreatestshowman is my 3rd top-rated and can be held up or track the leaders as can my 2nd top-rated horse Line Of Reason so both could go well here but I will be backing BLUE DE VEGA 5/1 who usually tracks the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and could get a good tow into the race being housed 2 stalls away from the likely pacesetter. 

Blue De Vega 5/1 1st (+5pts)

Total: +5pt

YORK 3.50 

A couple in this race who I will lay as they could struggle to stay the distance looking at the make-up of this race, (Abate + Autumn Flight) I think I should add Round The island to my list of lays as it looks outclassed at this level but it is capable of running a fast time which muddies the water a little, there's only 1lb between Normandy Barriere and Mutabaahy in 3rd and 2nd top spots, top-rated and the horse I will be backing is PADDY POWER 14/1 (EW) who hasn't shown much in its 3 runs this year but it looks to have been found an ideal opportunity to get back to winning ways but as usual when its a big price I would say to back it each way. 

Paddy Power 18/1 Unp (-2pts)

Total: -2pts

YORK 4.25 

I cannot work out which horse will set the pace here which always makes my analysis many times harder plus there's several horses that haven't got much data for me to work with, it's very close at the top of my speed figure list, Big Lachie is 3rd best and this horse is usually held up for a late run and its only rated 2lb below Roundhay Park in 2nd top spot and this one can be held up or track the leaders, top-rated but only by 1lb is FIRMDECISIONS 16/1 (EW) who likes to track the leaders and then stay on at the finish it will be the one I back with an each-way punt at the price but my stakes won't be at full strength. 

Firmdecisions 28/1 8th (-2pts)

Total: -2pts

DONCASTER 5.30

There's a few lightly raced sorts in this race so my stakes won't be at full tilt here, Napping is capable of running well and producing good speed figures but it is usually in lower class races and this isn't the trainers favoured course with a 0-12 record, Gullane One is a possible leader here but its speed figures have gone down each year for the last 2 years so maybe past its prime at the age of 7, Choosey is another that would be fancied on a time from 2018 but hasn't been at that level since then, I will be backing *DEVIL'S ANGEL 4/1 who usually runs in the middle of the pack and then staying on resolutely at the finish but I cannot leave DANECASE 13/2 out as it won last time out over an extra furlong in a fast time and looking back at its best 6-furlong time from 2018 it would have every chance in this race.

Dancase 7/1 7th (-pt)

Total: -1pt

Total on the day: 0pts